Grexit - will it happen or not?
- Thread starter Markus S
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matthewr
spɹɐʍʞɔɐq spɹoɔǝɹ ɹnoʎ sʎɐld
In summary deeply, deeply painful for the population but broadly successful in keep the banking sector afloat and averting the full scale meltdown of the economy that could have happened. For a number of reasons Argentina 2001 is a better example for Greece than Cyprus though.
https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2013/august/the-argentine-crisis-20012002-/
Also note that capital controls don't really work if you have a lot of corruption and poor regulation.
German media are reporting that the Greeks took 2 billion euros out of their bank accounts Monday to Wednesday and another 1.2 billion yesterday. The Greek banks have requested another 3.5 billion euros in ELA funds, and are expected to get them to buy some time until Monday.
I expect at least 2 billion euros will be taken out of Greek banks today. Geez, what a mess.
I expect at least 2 billion euros will be taken out of Greek banks today. Geez, what a mess.
matthewr
spɹɐʍʞɔɐq spɹoɔǝɹ ɹnoʎ sʎɐld
Not just the Brits; lots of Northern europeans seem fond of Anschluss and Greek Island "jokes" at the moment. Although on a geopolitical front I would be much more worried about future deals between Greece and Russia and China so jokes about converting greek islands of Chinese or Russian aircraft carriers are more apposite.
Read my second link again. They have done an awful lot in terms of reform and the main problem is not the lack of reform but the difficulty of doing this in a decidedly non-optimal currency area without the cultural and political links that would make the required transfer payments possible.
https://medium.com/bull-market/the-...ain-francesco-giavazzi-on-greece-92988bc675eb
Thanks, I remember the Argentinian troubles but not in such detail as that provided by your link.
I hadn't read your second link but have done so now.
The article dosn't negate the point I made earlier. The changes your link mentions have been effected not by the current government but by previous ones. The Tsipras government seems to have concentrated on outside relations without doing much of anything on the domestic front. I'm not talking about pension cuts or anything silly like that. I 'm talking about the real long-term stuff. The Greep people have to change a culture that seems deeply ingrained into the national psyche. As far as I can see, the problem that the 2,000 families who control 80% of Greek private wealth don't pay nearly as much tax as they would in other EZ countries has not been tackled. Corruption seems as rife as ever in Greece. The tax system is a mess (note, the German one is,too; tax systems seem to be formed more by lobbying than by rational thought in just about every country). And so on ...
The article dosn't negate the point I made earlier. The changes your link mentions have been effected not by the current government but by previous ones. The Tsipras government seems to have concentrated on outside relations without doing much of anything on the domestic front. I'm not talking about pension cuts or anything silly like that. I 'm talking about the real long-term stuff. The Greep people have to change a culture that seems deeply ingrained into the national psyche. As far as I can see, the problem that the 2,000 families who control 80% of Greek private wealth don't pay nearly as much tax as they would in other EZ countries has not been tackled. Corruption seems as rife as ever in Greece. The tax system is a mess (note, the German one is,too; tax systems seem to be formed more by lobbying than by rational thought in just about every country). And so on ...
Paul R
pfm Member
It wasn't a joke. Integrate the country into Germany, and hence the greater EU state as that develops. Fundamental problems go away. Why would a Greek remove money from a Greek bank if that were actually also a German bank?
The essential problem with the Eurozone is that it remains a collection of nation states. And somewhere there are a bunch of dickheads who thought that didn't matter and put the cart before the horse.
Paul
Well, we do have recent experience of integrating a country peacefully (the former GDR) and Greece is smaller than the GDR was (pop. ca. 11 million to 16.7 million), but you won't find many Germans (East or West) who would want to go through that process again anytime soon, not least because we paid through our noses for that integration and will continue to do so for decades.
Anyway, how about Britain rebuilding its empire by anschlussing Greece? Would certainly solve that pesky marbles problem.
Latest government elected on the promise of fixing things, alas those on the other side of the table do not agree with options offered by the Greek government.
A case of countries and institutions being nasty to Greece or Greek politicians promising more than they can deliver or indeed relying upon things that they have no or limited control over?
Whatever the reason the voters are in for a hard time.
A case of countries and institutions being nasty to Greece or Greek politicians promising more than they can deliver or indeed relying upon things that they have no or limited control over?
Whatever the reason the voters are in for a hard time.
That democracy only really works in a homogenous society with a broad concensus of the 'common good' ? And probably only on a relatively small scale ?
merlin
Avatar changed - Town names deemed offensive.
I think that's the point.
It seems from afar that a lot of Greece's problems stem from individuals bending or ignoring the rules in the interests of personal gain.
It also strikes me that those taking part in the democratic process do not give the needs of the many enough thought and it is for the want of such consideration in human nature that the very fabric of democracy is failing globally.
It seems from afar that a lot of Greece's problems stem from individuals bending or ignoring the rules in the interests of personal gain.
It also strikes me that those taking part in the democratic process do not give the needs of the many enough thought and it is for the want of such consideration in human nature that the very fabric of democracy is failing globally.
KC Cantiaci
pfm Member
But isn't this what the EU (and Euro) is about.... to bring everyone together and for everyone to share the same standards of living as each other with the richer nations paying/supporting the poorer ones to ultimately become a United States of Europe?
Nah......we gave up our ambitions years ago. On the other hand, I've read that some view the EU/Euro experiment as empire building via the backdoor rather than via conquest and conflict??
More like a framework where everybody can work their way up to the same standard of living, I would hope, with a bit of help along the way via EU funding.
Some may view it that way, but it's definitely not Germany.[/quote]
The British viewpoint on this seems rather ill-defined. On one hand, Britain sometimes bemoans a lack of EU and Nato leadership from Germany, on the other hand Germany is accused of using the EU as a backdoor approach to domination. Can't have it both ways.
Mississippi is not California.
Paul R
pfm Member
Then you have to break up the EU.
That would, by definition, mean Grexit.
Perhaps if you took Scotland?
Paul
