Chinese balloon/airship over USA

[MikeMA]

Anyone else been following this story? I find it quite strange on a number of levels:

- The USA thinks it may be a spy balloon and is clearly annoyed to the extent that S of S Anthony Blinken has cancelled or postponed his visit to China where he was due to meet Chinese president Xi Jinping.

- China has denied that the balloon is spying, and that it is simply a weather balloon blown off course, but is clearly embarrassed by the whole thing and has, sort of, apologised.

- The Pentagon is apparently still considering its options, including whether to shoot down the ballon.

What surprises me is that the thing wasn't intercepted/shot down immediately it was identified and detected in US airspace. It's almost as if both sides just wish it would go away.

 

[Jezzer]

Of course China would deny its a spy balloon but it’s very clearly a spy balloon. Nice analysis from this chap from the military:

 

[stevec67]

I'm amazed that the thing hasn't been shot down. A country where 300 million residents hold considerably more than 300M guns would surely have the means of doing so and subsequently denying all knowledge. "Oh how very unfortunate. Still, boys with guns, eh? What can you do? No, we haven't found it, have the naughty boys stolen it too? Oh dear."

 

[Cav]

I don't understand why China would need to use a balloon at all. Satellites would get the same imagery quite easily and undetectably. Perhaps it was intended to provoke a response?

 

[Bob McC]

It can stay much longer at 60-100,000 feet over a site than a satellite.

 

[Cav]

It can stay much longer at 80-100,000 feet over a site than a satellite.

Why would it need to?

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Why would it need to?

I presume monitoring activity at a more granular level requires imaging either in real time, or at any rate significantly more frequently than once every pass for an orbiting satellite.

 

[stevec67]

The military expert above says that it is a deliberate act intended to be seen and to provoke a response, following previous disagreement over activities in the sea between China and the Philippine s.

 

[Cav]

I presume monitoring activity at a more granular level requires imaging either in real time, or at any rate significantly more frequently than once every pass for an orbiting satellite.

There are more discreet ways, surely, multiple satellites, drones.

Clearly spy balloons don't work vey well.

 

[davidsrsb]

This is the country that used to fly U2 spy planes over other countries

 

[Seeker_UK]

There are more discreet ways, surely, multiple satellites, drones.

Clearly spy balloons don't work vey well.

Clearly they do - they're still there gathering information, and for a huge amount cheaper than a constellation of satellites put to the same job.

The other reason they're probably up there is to see what the USA would do with incursions to its airspace. Film it a lot for the news and moan a bit seems to be what happens.

 

[Mike Reed]

I gather that balloons do have a clear advantage over satellites. Also, I heard this morning that there's another one over central America. China is annoyed at visit to Li being called off. There is a possibility that this could be an accidental occurrence but nobody apart from the Chinese seem to consider this. Just so much bellicosity around at the mo'. Certainly is a peculiar trajectory/course, which'll surely take it out od USA airspace.

 

[droodzilla]

I'm more concerned about the reds under my bed.

 

[stevec67]

There are more discreet ways, surely, multiple satellites, drones.

Clearly spy balloons don't work vey well.

Clearly this one is working very well. In something other than simple aerial photography.

Clearly they do - they're still there gathering information, and for a huge amount cheaper than a constellation of satellites put to the same job.

The other reason they're probably up there is to see what the USA would do with incursions to its airspace. Film it a lot for the news and moan a bit seems to be what happens.

^ This. Russia knows that there are easier and more effective means of killing former spies than putting nerve agent on doorknobs or polonium 210 in tea. But just shooting someone dead in an alley doesn't send the same message. China has taken note.

 

[gintonic]

There are more discreet ways, surely, multiple satellites, drones.

I expect that the high visibility of the balloons is intentional - a message to the US and its allies

 

[paulfromcamden]

Clearly they do - they're still there gathering information, and for a huge amount cheaper than a constellation of satellites put to the same job.

The other reason they're probably up there is to see what the USA would do with incursions to its airspace. Film it a lot for the news and moan a bit seems to be what happens.

Presumably if they fly quite a bit higher than fighter planes can they're not so simple to intercept?

 

[paulfromcamden]

there are easier and more effective means of killing former spies than putting nerve agent on doorknobs or polonium 210 in tea

Some Bond film scriptwriter you'd be!

I wonder if Putin has a shark pool?

 

[stevec67]

Some Bond film scriptwriter you'd be!

I wonder if Putin has a shark pool?

It's not as nasty as something I've just thought of.
[/life of Brian]

Thing is that I don't have to make up spy poisoning stories. I don't have to make up stories of powerful Russians falling from hotel balconies after being critical of the war in Ukraine either.
The method is the message.

 

[stevec67]

Presumably if they fly quite a bit higher than fighter planes can they're not so simple to intercept?

A rocket will knock it down, and they reach 60k feet, no problem.

 

[matt j]

Likely the US would have detected this and done something with it long before it went public if they really wanted to. All seems to be a bit of a game.