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Brexit: give me a positive effect (2023 ‘Epic Fail’ box set edition)

TheDecameron said:
Any political footwork towards removing customs and immigration barriers involves the quid pro quo of freedom of movement, identified as BINO and vassalage by the seven ERG dwarves, Farage and Briatain’s bent newspaper barons. It’s a dead albatross round Starmer’s neck and I don’t believe he’s ready to upset red wall man and red wall woman who’s voted he’s counting on.
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Bloody dead right. There is no way he would be so stupid. Second time around, if the public mood has shifted and people are screaming to get back in, maybe. But that's a long way off, if it ever happens at all.
 
laughingboy said:
So Labour's position on Europe has Mandelson at its centre:

The future shape of the UK-EU relationship under a Starmer government was discussed in early March at a two-day retreat for EU ambassadors at Stansted Park, an Edwardian stately home in West Sussex... Lord Peter Mandelson, the former EU trade commissioner and Labour cabinet minister, outlined in a keynote speech the party’s approach to Europe if it was to win power. ​

"Mandelson said the party leadership had to be very cautious in public about its red lines on the single market and customs union, but also said that privately there was more flexibility on areas like dynamic alignment with EU rules and submitting to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice,” said a person familiar with the contents of the speech. Mandelson said Labour might also look to deepen the relationship with a veterinary agreement and by relinking with the bloc’s carbon trading market in order to avoid frictions caused by the introduction of the EU’s new carbon tax in 2026.​

And within a month of that meeting in 'early March', Labour was already struggling with how to present a 'de facto customs union by another name' as something else: (from Archived FT story from 8 April)

[A] paper from the Eurasia Group political consultancy cited unnamed “senior Labour insiders” as saying the party would seek to revive a high-alignment deal, originally brokered by former prime minister Theresa May but rejected by parliament in 2019, in a bid to boost economic growth.​
“[That] deal is a first-term ambition. A de facto customs union by another name. It is the first step of where we’d want to get to,” one of the insiders reportedly said, adding they were reflecting new internal thinking on the EU relationship within the Labour leadership. [...] Labour quickly denied the briefing...​

I have a bad feeling that despite the superficial clarity of its 'red lines', Labour has not sidelined Brexit in the next election. It has merely presented its opponents with a more insidious line of attack: stealth re-entry into the EU.
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Labour's public approach on this is: don't poke the bees nest/don't open up old wounds. The party instinctually wants it re-join but leadership is clear-eyed about current political realities and those dictate a cautious, step-by-step approach to Brexit, infuriating as it is for some. The question is...what will happen if Labour win the GE? Will they drop it all, continue being cautious or speed things up. Hard to tell, 'cause the EU is on the other side and the shock of losing red wallers in the last election still lingers. I suspect a lot of 'middle ways' and slow rapproachment on low hanging fruit with the EU if Labour do get into No.10. Then, when more time has passed, thornier issues can be tackled. Whether they get resolved is another matter. And no matter what Labour do re: getting closer to the EU, they will get attacked by the loons in the right-wing press, but I sense that vitriol is slowly ebbing away as the realities of Brexit become ever more apparent. That opens the door a bit more for Labour to 'experiment'. One other factor to keep in mind though: Trump.
 
TheDecameron said:
Any political footwork towards removing customs and immigration barriers involves the quid pro quo of freedom of movement, identified as BINO and vassalage by the seven ERG dwarves, Farage and Briatain’s bent newspaper barons. It’s a dead albatross round Starmer’s neck and I don’t believe he’s ready to upset red wall man and red wall woman who’s voted he’s counting on.
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Yes, it's Labour's version of Cakeism. Johnson thought you could be outside the EU whilst retaining the benefits. Wrong. Starmer thinks that you can 'make Brexit work' while ruling out renegotiation of Johnson's deal. There's a chance that you can make Brexit work, but not IMO without some form of customs union or improved single market access, which Labour is ruling out in bold print.

The two main risks of Labour's approach are that
  • the plans to 'make Brexit work' become a stick to beat Labour with in the election campaign - 're-entry by stealth', and
  • the fact that Labour will look like it has lied to voters if it wins on a manifesto that says, 'no customs union' and then arranges some kind of customs union.
Starmer-Mandelson think they are being clever by steering a middle course, but actually this sort of bad faith politics turns voters off, and it is catnip to populists who love to accuse others of an 'establishment stitch-up'. Much better to be straight with voters, whatever course you steer. But that requires leadership.
 
Kirk said:
Labour's public approach on this is: don't poke the bees nest/don't open up old wounds. The party instinctually wants it re-join but leadership is clear-eyed about current political realities and those dictate a cautious, step-by-step approach to Brexit, infuriating as it is for some. The question is...what will happen if Labour win the GE? Will they drop it all, continue being cautious or speed things up. Hard to tell, 'cause the EU is on the other side and the shock of losing red wallers in the last election still lingers. I suspect a lot of 'middle ways' and slow rapproachment on low hanging fruit with the EU if Labour do get into No.10. Then, when more time has passed, thornier issues can be tackled. Whether they get resolved is another matter. And no matter what Labour do re: getting closer to the EU, they will get attacked by the loons in the right-wing press, but I sense that vitriol is slowly ebbing away as the realities of Brexit become ever more apparent. That opens the door a bit more for Labour to 'experiment'. One other factor to keep in mind though: Trump.
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Yes, I understand the approach. But they are misleading voters and boxing themselves in at the same time. Labour badly need growth, so they need better trade arrangements with Europe, and fast. They should say so.

I know it's a political risk, but there was never a popular majority for Johnson's Brexit. We need a better Brexit.
 
From the Guardian.

The European Commission has proposed opening negotiations with the UK to allow free movement enjoyed before Brexit to millions of 18 to 30 year olds in a major post Brexit concession.

It said it will now seek approval from individual EU leaders to start the talks which will see one of the most controversial elements of Brexit, a block on the right to live in each others countries visa free, partially eliminated.

Under the envisaged agreement, both EU and UK citizens aged between 18 to 30 years would be able to stay for up to 4 years in the destination country, the European Commission said in a detailed statement.

“The objective would be to facilitate youth exchanges, making it easier for young EU citizens to travel, work and live in the UK, with reciprocity for young UK nationals in a member state,” the Commission said.
 
laughingboy said:
Yes, I understand the approach. But they are misleading voters and boxing themselves in at the same time. Labour badly need growth, so they need better trade arrangements with Europe, and fast. They should say so.

I know it's a political risk, but there was never a popular majority for Johnson's Brexit. We need a better Brexit.
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The popular majority that voted for Brexit didn't know or care how it was going to be implemented. Half of them didn't even think that it would happen.
 
Kirk said:
From the Guardian.

The European Commission has proposed opening negotiations with the UK to allow free movement enjoyed before Brexit to millions of 18 to 30 year olds in a major post Brexit concession.

It said it will now seek approval from individual EU leaders to start the talks which will see one of the most controversial elements of Brexit, a block on the right to live in each others countries visa free, partially eliminated.

Under the envisaged agreement, both EU and UK citizens aged between 18 to 30 years would be able to stay for up to 4 years in the destination country, the European Commission said in a detailed statement.

“The objective would be to facilitate youth exchanges, making it easier for young EU citizens to travel, work and live in the UK, with reciprocity for young UK nationals in a member state,” the Commission said.
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Not the right time. Wait until after our election. Don't gift the Daily Heil a platform.
 
The UK government has reportedly told port health authorities it will not “turn on” health and safety checks for EU imports as new post-Brexit border controls begin this month (Guardian).
 
Kirk said:
The UK government has reportedly told port health authorities it will not “turn on” health and safety checks for EU imports as new post-Brexit border controls begin this month (Guardian).
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A government ignoring its own legislation because it’s simply incapable of complying with it. Britain, no longer a serious country.
 
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Minio said:
Joe Public unable to predict the future, shock!😳
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Though it didn't stop them from predicting it, confidently, when the vote was on. Now of course, it's much easier to say I didn't know because it's such a cluster. Helps with the guilt and taking personal responsibility.
 
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