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Brexit: give me a positive effect (2023 ‘Epic Fail’ box set edition)

Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
Some, perhaps much of the preferential deal we negotiated was indeed down to Thatcher's intransigence. The currency thing, I'm not so sure. I think Gordon Brown also gets credit for refusal to join the Euro.
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Yes, although our brief flirtation with the ERM had already highlighted the perils of a currency peg
 
Brexit has made the UK a lower-status nation, says David Miliband.

He said: “The danger for British policymakers was exemplified by the Johnson government: wishful thinking about our power and position in a world dominated by growing global risks and muscular, transactional, adroit – sometimes predatory – nations and non-state actors, all growing in influence by the weakening of the multilateral system.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-uk-a-lower-status-nation-says-david-miliband
 
Graham B said:
In north Essex and Suffolk there were huge vote leave and leave.eu posters in thousands of fields by the roadsides. You couldn’t drive anywhere without seeing them over and over again, whenever the road passed fields or farms.
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Yes, I remember that, too. At the time I was working in Essex and the W Mids and commuting weekly between Leeds, Lichfield and Colchester. Like you I remember all the Leave posters in and around Essex/Herts/Suffolk. However EV maintains that all the farmers he knows voted Remain, so he must see a different Essex to the one you and I saw.
 
Kirk said:
Some new polling.


PollsterFieldwork DatesQuestion TypeIn EUOut EU
Poll of Polls--5842
Deltapoll15-18.3.24Rejoin/Stay Out5842
Omnisis/WeThink21-22.3.24Rejoin/Stay Out6040
Deltapoll22-25.3.24Rejoin/Stay Out5644
Omnisis/WeThink27-28.3.24Rejoin/Stay Out6139
BMG2-3.4.24Join/Stay Out5446
Omnisis/WeThink4-5.4.24Rejoin/Stay Out6139

https://www.whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls-uk-eu/
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What terms were being offered by the pollsters? If it was the same as before which is what I imagine many people would assume, I’m sure that those outcomes would be arrived at. If it was on the terms that all states have to subscribe to, freedom of movement, currency union when the criteria are met etc, I’m not so sure. We’re never going to get as good a deal as the one we had when we left. That’s the sad reality. Our best hope is gradually creeping ever nearer, and it isn’t going to happen in the next Parliament as it would scare too many voters.

I hope to see a new era of co-operation, then a creep towards a customs union and free movement again. Rejoining Erasmus and some of the other brilliant things we chucked away. Maybe closer union will be an issue for the 2028/29 election. It will depend how well the next parliament goes. I think it’s going to take an economic upturn, and some serious levelling up before it’s possible, because whilst it was a massive bullet foot interface from the Red Wall voters, it was also an opportunity to give those London elites a bloody nose.
 
lordsummit said:
What terms were being offered by the pollsters? If it was the same as before which is what I imagine many people would assume, I’m sure that those outcomes would be arrived at. If it was on the terms that all states have to subscribe to, freedom of movement, currency union when the criteria are met etc, I’m not so sure. We’re never going to get as good a deal as the one we had when we left. That’s the sad reality. Our best hope is gradually creeping ever nearer, and it isn’t going to happen in the next Parliament as it would scare too many voters.

I hope to see a new era of co-operation, then a creep towards a customs union and free movement again. Rejoining Erasmus and some of the other brilliant things we chucked away. Maybe closer union will be an issue for the 2028/29 election. It will depend how well the next parliament goes. I think it’s going to take an economic upturn, and some serious levelling up before it’s possible, because whilst it was a massive bullet foot interface from the Red Wall voters, it was also an opportunity to give those London elites a bloody nose.
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No terms were mentioned on the 2016 poll paper, IIRC, so why should any pollster have to bother with such trivial details now?
 
lordsummit said:
What terms were being offered by the pollsters? If it was the same as before which is what I imagine many people would assume, I’m sure that those outcomes would be arrived at. If it was on the terms that all states have to subscribe to, freedom of movement, currency union when the criteria are met etc, I’m not so sure. We’re never going to get as good a deal as the one we had when we left. That’s the sad reality. Our best hope is gradually creeping ever nearer, and it isn’t going to happen in the next Parliament as it would scare too many voters.

I hope to see a new era of co-operation, then a creep towards a customs union and free movement again. Rejoining Erasmus and some of the other brilliant things we chucked away. Maybe closer union will be an issue for the 2028/29 election. It will depend how well the next parliament goes. I think it’s going to take an economic upturn, and some serious levelling up before it’s possible, because whilst it was a massive bullet foot interface from the Red Wall voters, it was also an opportunity to give those London elites a bloody nose.
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The answer to the question you pose requires a difference type of research. Results from broader polls are becoming increasingly consistent though, showing that the majority of UK voters want to re-join the EU. The trend is your friend as they say. As you noted, the key question now is: what will the next government do about it? Let's assume the next government is (sensible) red. I don't think we've seen Labour's true colours on this yet; they are currently too focussed on executing their so-called Ming vase strategy. I suspect though they will seek somewhat significant (but slow) reconciliation with the EU. Where that goes and how it is formalised is anybody's guess at this stage but the direction of travel and mood will change - less ideology/culture war and more pragmatism and problem solving.

Brexit at the time wasn't so much economics - just about every Leave voter was happy to take an economic hit - it was more about cultural identity and values, prelapsarianism, fantasy and State, underpinned by collective narcissism and, in some quarters, barbarisation. Today, more people (e.g. our lovely farmers), are beginning to realise that economics was a rather important component of it all and that being in the EU is, on balance, better than being out of it. Some have even sussed that our sovereignty would be strengthened by re-joining. As for the Red Wall, they are a curious lot. They supported Blair but ditched Corbyn (who ditched them admittedly). They were big on immigration but are less so now. They lent their votes to the Tories but are now coming back to Labour. Some of them want stocked food shelves and cheap services but don't want to work in farming or integrate with immigrants. They resent the elites (and London) but voted for them in the last election. They equated the EU with the antithesis of their social values but still supported pro EU governments in the past. They seem rather confused, but they still need to be integrated into the politics of this country to overcome the sense of isolation they feel. Not sure levelling up is the answer. I suspect the answer lies somewhere in the big continuum known as social conservatism.
 
Kirk said:
As for the Red Wall, they are a curious lot. They supported Blair but ditched Corbyn (who ditched them admittedly). They were big on immigration but are less so now. They lent their votes to the Tories but are now coming back to Labour. Some of them want stocked food shelves and cheap services but don't want to work in farming or integrate with immigrants. They resent the elites (and London) but voted for them in the last election. They equated the EU with the antithesis of their social values but still supported pro EU governments in the past. They seem rather confused, but they still need to be integrated into the politics of this country to overcome the sense of isolation they feel. Not sure levelling up is the answer. I suspect the answer lies somewhere in the big continuum known as social conservatism.
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Not very curious. Everything you say is pretty coherent with the general views in the Red Wall. Obviously not every RW voter is the same but a few common trends are:
1. They wanted to give the Establishment a bloody nose.
2. The EU was a scapegoat becaiuse the press had spent 20 years telling them that it was to blame.
3. They supported pro EU governments when they had a red rosette.
4. They are confused and not all of them are the same.
5. Social conservatism is a big driver. They have been left behind. They feel increasingly left behind and the social changes that we have seen are either irrelevant to them or unwelcome, increasing the sense of isolation and disengagement.
 
Kirk said:
Brexit at the time wasn't so much economics - just about every Leave voter was happy to take an economic hit - it was more about cultural identity and values, prelapsarianism, fantasy and State, underpinned by collective narcissism and, in some quarters, barbarisation.
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I was listening yesterday to a debate between a Northern Irish Unionist and a Northern Irish would-be reunifier, and they made the point that reunification or continued partition would be largely an emotional decision, with no regard whatsoever for economic arguments (the Irish are all for reunification, until told how much it's going to cost them).

So it seems with Brexit. From the very beginning, the British have never seemed completely happy with this EEC/EU business (the Irish quite the reverse) and the emotional appeal of standing proudly alone, as per 1940 was strong (in reality they still had an entire Empire behind them, but facts should never be allowed to get in the way of a good story). I suspect that things such as Boris's bus whopper had little effect - more what I could hear my late mother saying "Lot o'them foreign people!" Funny that they now seem to have more o'them foreign people than ever.
 
tones said:
I was listening yesterday to a debate between a Northern Irish Unionist and a Northern Irish would-be reunifier, and they made the point that reunification or continued partition would be largely an emotional decision, with no regard whatsoever for economic arguments (the Irish are all for reunification, until told how much it's going to cost them).

So it seems with Brexit. From the very beginning, the British have never seemed completely happy with this EEC/EU business (the Irish quite the reverse) and the emotional appeal of standing proudly alone, as per 1940 was strong (in reality they still had an entire Empire behind them, but facts should never be allowed to get in the way of a good story). I suspect that things such as Boris's bus whopper had little effect - more what I could hear my late mother saying "Lot o'them foreign people!" Funny that they now seem to have more o'them foreign people than ever.
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Leave's Take Back Control was (obviously) based on emotional appeal. It was rarely backed up with rational argument, rather it was sold/told as as a good 'story' that invited voters to project their own meanings/fantasies onto it; everything from Brexit will lower house prices to, we hold all the cards and we can chose the path we want. Appealing to our to emotions works, just look at Trump.
 
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