Ukraine IV

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

I think (hope) that China will look at what happened in Ukraine and realize that they could suffer enormous losses if they try to invade.

And I hope that the West is taking steps to wean itself off China’s manufacturing capability. We see the difficulty of imposing sanctions when a country has a supply of essential product - in the case of Russia, oil and gas - and China has spent the last 20 years making itself indispensable to the West.

 

[DonQuixote99]

Taiwan is rapidly growing its anti ship and anti aircraft missile systems.
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/04/22/taiwan-anti-ship-missile-deployment-plan/
https://news.yahoo.com/letters-u-tries-reshape-taiwan-200205769.html

I think (hope) that China will look at what happened in Ukraine and realize that they could suffer enormous losses if they try to invade.

Wars are trending toward robot wars. Our drones and missiles vs your drones and missiles. The US Switchblade drone, significantly, can be placed in a 'autonomous' mode where it loiters and then decides for itself whether to attack something.

 

[Seeker_UK]

Wars are trending toward robot wars. Our drones and missiles vs your drones and missiles. The US Switchblade drone, significantly, can be placed in a 'autonomous' mode where it loiters and then decides for itself whether to attack something.

Despite all of the headlines around Turkish drones, one think Ukraine has shown us is that it's still down to human vs human with weapons that were designed a long time ago.

 

[anubisgrau]

Any evidence that Scholz had coordinated this proposal with Putin? And there's the idea of neutrality. Lot of devils in the details of that. Russia's idea of neutrality seems, for one thing, to have included 'denazifacation.' Actually, Ukraine already had a pact with Russia and the US guaranteeing it's security, didn't it? Would the new one contain the clause "And this time we mean it?"

Of course Scholz met Putin in this round of negotiations but don't expect to find a plenty of details in the press. Too early. I'm sure he didn't represent Putin's standpoint in the talks but rather offered something acceptable to both sides but I'm not here to advocate the Germans (at least not on the UK forum, given their role in Brexit). There are gossips around diplomatic circles about the proposal and guarantees, but as we will read one day in someone's memoirs about they, I would leave it here.

Germans (and French FWIW) were and still are confident the proposal presented to Zelensky was much better than what we have now. I'm looking forward to host my wife's best friend this summer, I expect to hear a plentiful of valuable and non biased info. She's a top level EU diplomat who worked last 3 years in Kiev. She got badly pissed off with the US/UK attitude and their interference with the EU diplomacy so she decided to quit. Meanwhile she also accepted this is not only a war between Ukr and Rus, but something a way more complex - a direct undermining of Europe by their apparent "partners".

As for Russia being guilty for everything, I agree on many points but mind that the main violator of Minsk agreement was Ukraine, not Russia. Attacks on the occupied territories Donbas and Lugansk actually never stopped, including a plenty of cruelty towards civilians that has never been mentioned in the West. Whoever wants to read about it, a plenty of material all around. This ain't an excuse for Russian attack but it's a fact.

Russia attacked Ukraine on February 24. The Minsk agreement expired on February 21, so technically speaking, you can't breach something that has already expired. I discovered this only today, an interesting moment in the story.

 

[gints]

Those guarantees about we speaking and which did not help was given to Ukraine when Ukraine give up their nuclear weapons. Why Ukraine should give up anything again for some new guarantees which probably will be forgotten again in few years. Should they do not learn from their own experience?

 

[gints]

Meanwhile more interesting developments

Maybe US is halting Ukrainians a bit (as displayed in the NYT editorial) in anticipation of more lucrative operations for military industrial complex and warmongers....:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/...kraine-playbook-for-countering-china-00033792

"U.S. officials are pushing their Taiwanese counterparts with new urgency to look to Ukraine’s success in fending off Russian forces as a blueprint for countering a Chinese attack, former and current U.S. officials tell POLITICO.

But there is little doubt that China is also learning from Russia’s botched invasion as it looks to reunify Taiwan with the mainland — with or without force. Experts say Beijing is likely adjusting its plans for the island to reflect and improve on Russia’s failures."

Did you actually read whole report or you just want to give us impression that your bad America preparing for new action place?
Yes, it is interesting read, current situation in Ukraine raises need to review defence strategic of Taiwan. What weapons to choose, civilian involvement, resupply possibilities.. Everything you can learn from this situation. Big country against small. Americans is biggest Taiwan supporters, completely normal situation to pushing to value current situation in Taiwan and look where and what can be improved.

 

[gints]

Despite all of the headlines around Turkish drones, one think Ukraine has shown us is that it's still down to human vs human with weapons that were designed a long time ago.

Yes, as we see artillery still is god of war.

 

[DonQuixote99]

I'm sure he didn't represent Putin's standpoint in the talks but rather offered something acceptable to both sides....

So Scholz was just offering something he hoped Putin would accept. Hardly sounds like peace served on a plate then. Especially given all the clear signs that Putin had no actual desire to negotiate.

 

[DonQuixote99]

Despite all of the headlines around Turkish drones, one think Ukraine has shown us is that it's still down to human vs human with weapons that were designed a long time ago.

Would not argue strongly in the case of land war, quite yet. But in the context of armed forced trying to operate across 117 miles of water, I think the machines are the new gods.

 

[TheDecameron]

The game we’re being invited to play is chip away at the peripheral facts, sow doubt and help shift culpability away from the aggressor onto the victim and any third party to hand. Mingle with frequent servings of whataboutism, rinse and repeat.

The same tactic is used by holocaust deniers- “ you’re wrong! there were no gas chambers at Camp X” when in fact Camp X was ‘just’ a forced labour camp and the gas chambers were at camps Y and Z instead.

In the same way Putin can carry out mass civilian executions and gaslight the victims and observers with statements even Orwell would have been embarrassed at - “it’s faked, this is a provocation”.

 

[Seeker_UK]

Would not argue strongly in the case of land war, quite yet. But in the context of armed forced trying to operate across 117 miles of water, I think the machines are the new gods.

As soon as the invading forces enter the littoral area, technology will take a back-seat. It's then about weight of numbers and the ability to rain lead down on the adversary.

 

[Mike & Van]

Putin should have taken a leaf out of the US Dep. of Defence handbook, and called it 'Humanitarian Intervention', flimsy pretext optional.

 

[DimitryZ]

Putin also has the 25 million Russian speakers in Ukraine to protect from themselves.

And most Ukranians are bilingual. That's a problem right there. Are they Ukro-Russian Nazis or Russian-Ukro allies? Hence an immediate need for the uniquely named "filtration camps."

The first group is "re-educated" into mass graves and the lucky second group gets relocated to remote Siberian towns.

 

[DimitryZ]

guarantees for ukraine were a way higher than what they get now, so go figure.

this war is much more complex than an attack on ukraine, but it really bores me to explain the obvious to people with a hawkish mindset.

Since you are a world renowned humanitarian, your displeasure is truly worrisome.

 

[DimitryZ]

And I hope that the West is taking steps to wean itself off China’s manufacturing capability. We see the difficulty of imposing sanctions when a country has a supply of essential product - in the case of Russia, oil and gas - and China has spent the last 20 years making itself indispensable to the West.

And the West is indispensable to China.

We absolutely must find a way to maintain normal relations with China.

 

[anubisgrau]

Italy Circulates 4-Point Peace Plan

The plan calls for local cease-fires to allow for civilian evacuations, and creating the conditions for a general cease-fire leading “to a long-lasting peace,” Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio said on Friday, according to the Associated Press.

The first step in the peace plan, according to the newspaper, is a cease-fire and the demilitarization of the front lines.

The second point is that Ukraine would be a neutral country, with its security guaranteed by a not-yet-identified group of countries. The contours of this part of the plan would be discussed at a peace conference.

The third point is a bilateral agreement between Russia and Ukraine to clarify the future of Crimea and Donbas. The agreement would deal with cultural and language rights and guarantee the free movement of people, goods and capital. The plan, according to Repubblica, indicates that Crimea and Donbas would have almost complete autonomy, including in questions of defense, but would be part of Ukraine.

The fourth point would be a multilateral peace agreement between the European Union and Russia that would include a staged withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and the winding down of Western sanctions against Moscow.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/ru...-plan-h2o9EfwULf6P1mwDbjdn?mod=article_inline

let's see what argument will be used to reject it but i can imagine a status of a neutral country being unacceptable for zelensky. that's why i guess this was not coordinated with US. equally i can't see how putin will agree to return crimea. for that, a clear ukr military win is needed.

 

[DimitryZ]

That's exactly the Ukrainian plan as well, at least when the negotiations were going on.

With one important difference:

Russia goes back to February 23 LoC and doesn't get to keep its' current advance. And this happens now, not in some "future multilateral peace treaty."

And one doesn't even need negotiations to actualize this - Russia can just announce that they are going back to the previous LoC and just do it.

Since Putin's entire foreign policy is basically invading the "near abroad" and adding territory to RF, this would seem to be a non-starter for him.

And more context on the sudden renewed European push for ceasefire at any cost:

BBC News - Ukraine peace deal: Kyiv rules out ceding land to Russia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61542090

 

[simon g]

And the West is indispensable to China.

We absolutely must find a way to maintain normal relations with China.

China is indeed the key to a resolution of this conflict.

At present, China is providing tacit support to Russia. If the western powers perceive or deem this support to be too great, then there is the real possibility of a serious trade war/sanctions against China, which would destabilise the world to an even greater extent.

However, if the West can 'encourage' China to pressurise Russia in to a cessation of hostilities, then Putin will have to agree.

The trick here is to try to determine what China sees as in its best interests. China works 'smartly' and in the long term, unlike the West (in broad terms). Make no mistake though, China is critical to ending this war.

 

[anubisgrau]

A bid by Ukraine to join the European Union would not be finalised for “15 or 20 years,” France’s Europe minister said Sunday (22 May), pouring cold water on Kyiv’s hopes for quick entry in the wake of Russia’s invasion.

“We have to be honest. If you say Ukraine is going to join the EU in six months, or a year or two, you’re lying,” Clément Beaune told Radio J. “It’s probably in 15 or 20 years, it takes a long time.”

“I don’t want to offer Ukrainians any illusions or lies,” he said, reiterating an offer by President Emmanuel Macron to create a looser “European political community” that could help integrate Ukraine with the bloc sooner.

 

[tones]

That's exactly the Ukrainian plan as well, at least when the negotiations were going on.

With one important difference:

Russia goes back to February 23 LoC and doesn't get to keep its' current advance. And this happens now, not in some "future multilateral peace treaty."

And one doesn't even need negotiations to actualize this - Russia can just announce that they are going back to the previous LoC and just do it.

Since Putin's entire foreign policy is basically invading the "near abroad" and adding territory to RF, this would seem to be a non-starter for him.

And more context on the sudden renewed European push for ceasefire at any cost:

BBC News - Ukraine peace deal: Kyiv rules out ceding land to Russia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61542090

It seems to me that the only way we can stop Putin from completing sawing through the limb out on which he has climbed and causing even more destruction is somehow to give him something that he can present as a victory to the Russian population. I'm not sure what this is, but it seems essential to me.

This will be hard for the Ukranians to swallow, as they were attacked without provocation and have suffered massive loss of life and damage to infrastructure and livelihoods. If this isn't done, this dangerously unstable/deluded person could get even more extreme. I saw a Guardian report on the potential use of barrel bombs that caused so much devastation in Syria. And there there are chemical weapons and even tactical nukes. Now I don't know whether Putin is emulating the famous Nixon "crazy" act (trying to convince the other side that he is sufficiently bananas to use nukes), or whether he really is bananas, but he must not be defeated (at least in his own mind), and it's dangerous for the Americans to boast of how their intelligence has been useful in killing generals and sinking ships. Best for the Americans to emulate another US President, Teddy Roosevelt ("walk softly - and carry a big stick").