Coronavirus - the new strain XX

[Seeker_UK]

I think risk perception is influenced by a lot of factors. Here's a diagram from Wikipedia. I can see some of these in different members responses to covid.

Accurate risk perception also depends on having good data. A practical example: if I as a vaccinated middle aged diabetic take a two hour train journey in a busy carriage where most people aren't wearing a face covering and infection rates are 1 in 75, what level of risk am I exposing myself too? There's no data yet on outcomes for vaccinated diabetics. I'll probably be OK but it's a finger in the air at best.

A good start is to specify what risk you are assessing: infection? death? being ridiculed by a non-mask wearer...

 

[gavreid]

...827, 725 and 734 admissions to 24th

 

[Seanm]

Sean, now you're dissing Lancet journals, honestly. Neuroscience is the poor relation of medicine because it is mainly about old people - impact factor is a measure of the size of the field - you simply can't compare one field with another. It's not the plum placement on a medical degree, a stint on the stroke ward, I can tell you that much.

I’m not dissing it, I'm trying to provide context. Most of us evaluate the content of scientific research papers primarily by context - and that includes where it's published. There's obviously a difference between The Lancet and EMedicinePlus (Brought to you by The Lancet) and it's not pedantry to point out your mistake here. Further context is provided by the links above.

 

[Sonority]

Unsurprisingly large amount of coverage on the apparent large fall in reported cases, yet when they cut to a doctor in hospital, he does point out that while reported cases may well be falling - hospital admissions are still rising exponentially..

 

[gavreid]

I’m not dissing it, I'm trying to provide context. Most of us evaluate the content of scientific research papers primarily by context - and that includes where it's published. There's obviously a difference between The Lancet and EMedicinePlus (Brought to you by The Lancet) and it's not pedantry to point out your mistake here. Further context is provided by the links above.

Don't patronise now me about the way science works for goodness sake.

 

[mandryka]

Some scientists' views on the declining case numbers

expert reaction to falling COVID-19 case numbers as reported on the gov.uk dashboard | Science Media Centre

It is clear that this cannot realistically be due to achieving a relevant level of population immunity given that only just over half the UK population has received both vaccines. Whilst 90% of adults in the UK have been reported to possess antibodies resulting from either vaccination or infection (ONS), we know the latter results in a dramatically inferior level of protection.

Why is it so clear?

 

[Seanm]

Don't patronise now me about the way science works for goodness sake.

I’m not and you need to take this less personally. I haven’t criticised you, I’ve offered some context on a much-shared paper - you threw yourself in front of it to defend it, for whatever reason, offering some misleading information in the process. Out again now before I’m accused of trolling. Impossible to sound a note of caution on this thread without raising the temperature.

 

[tiggers]

Well done Sean, back in (when you claim to be having a break), boot in and then playing the innocent and out again! Wow, just wow!

 

[Tony L]

Unsurprisingly large amount of coverage on the apparent large fall in reported cases, yet when they cut to a doctor in hospital, he does point out that while reported cases may well be falling - hospital admissions are still rising exponentially..

I suspect we are in the wild west now as more and more people change behaviour, delete the app etc. The ‘case numbers’ has never been ‘case numbers’, only ‘identified and reported case numbers’, and I suspect that dataset has just become a lot weaker. The only figures to watch now IMO are hospital admissions, ‘long covid’ numbers, and deaths. They are the only real indicator of where we are as the Tories are doing their ‘three-monkey’ act (well four as there’s always at least one with its hand in the till).

 

[hc25036]

Some scientists' views on the declining case numbers

expert reaction to falling COVID-19 case numbers as reported on the gov.uk dashboard | Science Media Centre




Why is it so clear?

Basic well-understood biology!

 

[mandryka]

Don't patronise now me about the way science works for goodness sake.

Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.

YOU may be clear about how science works, but I'm not. And one of the most challenging intellectual things about making sense of the epidemic is to judge the quality of the ideas that are foisted on you.

Look, 18 months ago, I'd have said, without ever having thought about it, that the BMJ was an impeccable scientific journal. But when you read what they say it becomes clear that some of their editorial and commentary is politically engaged, and IMO occasionally contains ideas which appear to be supported by the footnotes, but if you bother to dig down are only disputably so. So much for the context of the BMJ.

And The Lancet -- again I'd have said that it's an impeccable scientific journal. And then along comes that letter with 200 signatories asking for July 9 to be delayed. They're entitled to their opinion, but opinion is what it was, and in my opinion half baked. The Lancet sounds like a journal which only publishes well thought through ideas -- but in reality it's not so simple.

And of course we had SAGE and a SAGE subgroup -- someone who would plausibly have privileged access to Government aims and intentions and strategies if they were part of SAGE, would less plausibly have access if they were part of a SAGE advisory subgroup. The distinction matters.

I don't know how seriously to take eclincalmedine. But I do know this: context matters, and I'm grateful to the people who have

offered some

 

[matt j]

I suspect we are in the wild west now as more and more people change behaviour, delete the app etc. The ‘case numbers’ has never been ‘case numbers’, only identified and reported case numbers, and I suspect that dataset has just become a lot weaker. The only figures to watch now IMO are hospital admissions, ‘long covid’ numbers, and deaths. They are the only real indicator of where we are as the Tories are doing their ‘three-monkey’ act (well four as there’s always at least one with its hand in the till).

I did a job in a care home today, first time I've not been asked for proof of a negative LFT and I was the only one wearing a mask, none of the staff were!

 

[tonerei]

I did a job in a care home today, first time I've not been asked for proof of a negative LFT and I was the only one wearing a mask, none of the staff were!

Was up in NI last weekend just back today. Definitely looser attitude to wearing masks. In the areas I moved through they are not as bad as what you are seeing but not as stringent or careful as Ireland. Young people serving in some coffee shops were not wearing masks. Talking to some people who are in my age profile and had personal experience of people suffering with long covid still advocating for just getting on with things. Found that a bit strange but all the messaging comes from the UK and Borisgob so I suppose it is not surprising.
Allowing masks to be discretionary is pure madness but it is populism that Bojo and the Tories reckon will propel them to another election victory.

Just to give balance the Irish government get a lashing from a lot of the public and will probably lose the next election. They in my mind have been sensible and careful throughout the pandemic. They have made mistakes but taken steps to correct them fairly quickly. But there are no votes in keeping business's shut and in door dining in restaurants and pubs being banned until now.

 

[Spraggons Den]

Disagree about the current Government policy on mask wearing propelling them to a GE victory.

The majority of folks in a recent survey were against the final round of opening up given the increasing daily cases. A lot of workplaces, including mine, are carrying on with unchanged anti COVID measures and I see most people wearing masks in shops.

So I think Johnson is on a bit of an island which could cost him his job in the future.

 

[lordsummit]

There seems to be good news from Manchester, numbers falling everywhere:

The latest Covid infection rates go green as cases fall in EVERY single borough
https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...news/latest-covid-infection-rates-go-21150623

I don’t know the vaccine figures, but I know there has been a massive push in order to get ahead of the government targets.

 

[farfromthesun]

I'm dubious about the numbers. We've "opened up", pretending the pandemic is over, people are deleting the app, left, right and centre, many people forced to go back to work, people not self-isolating, test shortages....doesn't seem that surprising that reported cases are dropping.

 

[Sloop John B]

There seems to be good news from Manchester, numbers falling everywhere:

The latest Covid infection rates go green as cases fall in EVERY single borough
https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...news/latest-covid-infection-rates-go-21150623

I don’t know the vaccine figures, but I know there has been a massive push in order to get ahead of the government targets.

here's hoping those numbers are a real representation of the virus on the wane.

finger's crossed everyone.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...e-latest-fall-in-cases-of-covid-across-the-uk

.sjb

 

[gavreid]

I'm dubious about the numbers. We've "opened up", pretending the pandemic is over, people are deleting the app, left, right and centre, many people forced to go back to work, people not self-isolating, test shortages....doesn't seem that surprising that reported cases are dropping.

I think it shows again just how much covid is spread in schools. In Scotland, while they have seen a fall in cases and importantly also in hospitalisations, they have also seen increasing positivity so less testing, which supports your argument to a degree. We are going to get some temporary respite for a little while I think, but these next few months will be dangerous for people.

 

[paulfromcamden]

I'm dubious about the numbers. We've "opened up", pretending the pandemic is over, people are deleting the app, left, right and centre, many people forced to go back to work, people not self-isolating, test shortages....doesn't seem that surprising that reported cases are dropping.

I'm going to reserve judgement for a couple of weeks until we see whether or not it's reflected in the ONS figures. Fingers crossed though.

 

[IanW]

I'm going to reserve judgement for a couple of weeks until we see whether or not it's reflected in the ONS figures. Fingers crossed though.

The ONS data is the best data available, but does have the following limitations:

1. The data is released on a weekly basis and will have further delays due to processing of the PCR tests and the results being brought together.
2. The data itself will include more positives than there are of people who are infectious due to the PCR test being so sensitive and people who have had Covid still possibly testing positive many weeks after the infection.

An alternative indicator as to whether the current drops in the daily positive test data are plausible, is if the numbers of patients admitted to hospital starts to drop around 10 days after the daily positive test results start to drop.

As an aside, if the lines representing the number of hospital admissions and daily positive Covid tests in the second wave and the third wave are compared. Then it can be seen that the link between getting infected and needing hospital treatment has been dramatically weakened (but not removed).

The graphs are available on the coronavirus.gov.uk website. There is enough data now to calculate that reduction. I was told it had been reduced by a factor of 10 (i.e. number of hospital cases reduced for same number of positive daily tests) by someone who analyses the data in detail, but I have not checked this yet.