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Coronavirus - the new strain XVI

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Seanm said:
New study suggests both Oxford and Pfizer reduce infection and transmission by two thirds.

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/cov...-phe-data-south-african-variant-latest-879032

It would be interesting to look at how the idea that the vaccines *wouldn’t* reduce transmission became such a widespread concern: AIUI that would really have been a very surprising development.
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Hancock has said there’s early data showing a reduction in transmission in people who have had a vaccine.

He also said hospital admissions were falling "much more sharply" than they were in the first wave.

Israel’s health ministry also said yesterday that the rate of Covid-19 infections dropped 95.8 per cent among people who received both shots of Pfizer’s vaccine.

All very promising signs.
 
Deejay said:
He also said hospital admissions were falling "much more sharply" than they were in the first wave.
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I don't think thats true unfortunately. Admissions peaked at the beginning of April and the number had halved 18 days or so later. That's pretty much the same rate that we're seeing just now.
 
gavreid said:
I don't think thats true unfortunately. Admissions peaked at the beginning of April and the number had halved 18 days or so later. That's pretty much the same rate that we're seeing just now.
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The BBC have run a story quoting Hancock regarding admissions. He presumably would have access to the data. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56145392

You would expect to see a larger reduction in admissions at some time due to the vaccines. Maybe it’s too early to tell and the lockdown as it stands is the main driver of reduced admissions.

More encouraging signs also regarding transmission. This report says that Pfizer's Covid vaccine has stopped 89.4% of transmission in Israel. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...shot-stops-covid-s-spread-israeli-study-shows
 
gavreid said:
I don't think thats true unfortunately. Admissions peaked at the beginning of April and the number had halved 18 days or so later. That's pretty much the same rate that we're seeing just now.
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Hancock said that there are signs that the numbers in hospital are falling much more sharply than in the first wave and there's further analysis to be done on that.
 
mandryka said:
Hancock said that there are signs that the numbers in hospital are falling much more sharply than in the first wave and there's further analysis to be done on that.
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I don't know I didn't hear him but Deejay said hospital admissions which is really not the case at the moment.
 
gavreid said:
I don't know I didn't hear him but Deejay said hospital admissions which is really not the case at the moment.
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I was only quoting what Matt Hancock himself said. All the studies suggest that the vaccines will be effective against every variant in stopping serious illness and death.

While there seems to be increasing evidence from Israel and in various studies in this country, that vaccines will also reduce transmission significantly.

Taking all of this into account,we should expect to see a significant drop in admissions and deaths which should allow for the normality we all crave, and sooner rather than later if we go off the plan to vaccinate every adult by the end of July.
 
OK, the news is getting slightly better, but relying on data that states both vaccinations needed to obtain said results does not equate to what happens with just one, as may be the case with adults in the UK by ‘June/July’
We are a fair way off all adults having both vaccinations, and even further off ‘normality’ being safe.
Trusting any member of the cabinet is not the best thing to go forward with IMO.
 
No doubt a controversial comment to some, but from a purely selfish perspective I’m ok with pubs staying shut. Open golf courses and gyms, please.
 
Sonority said:
OK, the news is getting slightly better, but relying on data that states both vaccinations needed to obtain said results does not equate to what happens with just one, as may be the case with adults in the UK by ‘June/July’
We are a fair way off all adults having both vaccinations, and even further off ‘normality’ being safe.
Trusting any member of the cabinet is not the best thing to go forward with IMO.
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All the evidence suggests that one dose is extremely effective, and the 3 month interval is looking not just safe but optimal: the JCVI’s decision on that has been more than vindicated.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...r-first-dose-new-israeli-study-finds-12222164

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-02-19...efficacy-compared-to-six-weeks-study-suggests

Meanwhile it's becoming clearer that the vaccine is cutting infections, hospitalisations and deaths:

https://www.ft.com/content/6d4ff17b-b3a2-4f9a-bb73-84e50ba614b6
 
Andrew C! said:
No doubt a controversial comment to some, but from a purely selfish perspective I’m ok with pubs staying shut. Open golf courses and gyms, please.
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I think this what is going to happen, easing of outdoor restrictions followed by non essential retail & gyms. Pubs with outdoor seating should be able to open sooner. I would love to be able welcome friends into the garden for a BBQ & drinks.

That should be enough until May. This will massively help with the National mood& those that don’t want to mingle can stay at home;)
 
I'm staying well away from gyms for at least a year. Living a somewhat isolated life I had a month's trial of a gym and caught a vomiting bug and flu within a fortnight. Couldn't have caught them anywhere else. A enclosed environment with everyone panting sounds like a great place to catch Covid. And then pass it on. Golf courses should be open. It's just a walk, isn't it. I'm looking forward to tennis courts being open but not to find groups of people gathered to play doubles (outgoing four in a huddle with incoming four).
 
Woodface said:
I think this what is going to happen, easing of outdoor restrictions followed by non essential retail & gyms. Pubs with outdoor seating should be able to open sooner. I would love to be able welcome friends into the garden for a BBQ & drinks.

That should be enough until May. This will massively help with the National mood& those that don’t want to mingle can stay at home;)
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Apparently they’re not going to ease outside restrictions, despite the low risk, because they don’t trust people to distinguish between outside and inside. They think we’re idiots.

Anyway, more good news here: vaccine ethnicity gap starting to close.

https://twitter.com/tomhcalver/status/1363440127398273029?s=21
 
Really, there's been too little said about aerosol transmission, even to date. There was someone on the BBC news from Oxford complaining that the government had not done enough to warn and protect people and that people were still thinking they were safe if they used sanitiser frequently. I read a study from South Korea where an individual who was in a bar for just a few minutes at the same time as the person that transmitted the virus from the other side of the room.
 
I'm afraid to say Sean that most people are idiots. Stupid and uninterested enough to only understand what Boris Johnson tells them.
My heating has been out since the beginning of January and I put off getting someone in to fix it. When it got really cold two weeks ago I made the call. A van turned up and the young plumber arrived with an apprentice. I rang the boss to say that one is enough in the house at the moment and was told that the apprentice had to receive his training somehow and that I was being unreasonable. And then he made the comment "we can come back after lockdown". As if the virus only exists when Boris says that playtime is over. A bit like opening up for Christmas for a few days. the virus will take a holiday as well.
We have the worst government, bit it takes a pretty stupid population to be taken in by the populist, Union Jack waving rhetoric that is easy to reprint in The Sun and The Mail.
 
k90tour said:
Really, there's been too little said about aerosol transmission, even to date. There was someone on the BBC news from Oxford complaining that the government had not done enough to warn and protect people and that people were still thinking they were safe if they used sanitiser frequently. I read a study from South Korea where an individual who was in a bar for just a few minutes at the same time as the person that transmitted the virus from the other side of the room.
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I'd be very wary outside on a cold still day - never mind gyms...
 
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