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Next Labour Leader II

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This is roughly the reason I've just switched my vote on this poll from Phillips to Starmer. I think this year is going to be chaos. Johnson is going to fail to deliver on something significant, and the Tories are going to start looking like the self-interested shower of incompetents we believe them to be, but in a way more visible to more of the voting public.

What Labour needs, if this comes to pass, is somebody calm, competent and consistent. A rock people will come to believe they can rely on. That would go a long way to planting the idea that Labour is electable. We don't need innovative policies, or groundbreaking initiatives, because with the current Tory majority, it would all just be piss and wind anyway. So hold your fire on that, and concentrate on repositioning Labour as a party of competence. That means somebody like Starmer, who is capable of looking like a stabilising influence while all around is going to shit. He might not be the one to lead the party into the next election, or the one to develop the innovative social reform and left-wing initiatives, but that's not what's needed right here right now. What we need is a helmsman who can hold the current course in a storm. Starmer looks like the most likely candidate for that.

I agree with most of that and voted for Starmer when the thread started ... I still want my free bloody broadband though. :)

Jack
 
FWIW I think Starmer will be shredded by Johnson. His lack of humour and his lack of good effective confrontational argument will soon be very apparent.

Johnson thinks the Tories are a bunch of jokers ... and indeed they are.

Jack
 
FWIW I think Starmer will be shredded by Johnson. His lack of humour and his lack of good effective confrontational argument will soon be very apparent.

I think you’re probably right about that. Starmer will come across as stiff and boring against Johnson, no matter his command of the facts.

I actually think the candidate with the best chance against Johnson is probably Phillips. Not because she’s the consummate politician - without wishing to be mean, I don’t think she is. But because Johnson won’t know what to do with or about her. She’s so far from the kind of opponent he’s used to that I think it might throw him. And he feels used to being able to dismiss people like her (‘...humbug’, as he so repellently put it not long ago), but would have to engage if she were at the other side of the dispatch box. Politically she’d sidestep the continuity Corbyn etc jibes, too.

No idea how she’d get on in the job otherwise, but as a foil to BJ, she might be the best chance.
 
FWIW I think Starmer will be shredded by Johnson. His lack of humour and his lack of good effective confrontational argument will soon be very apparent.

Half the public already think we're a joke, the last thing Labour need is another comedian. The party needs a credible leader who understands economics and prioritisation, and quickly! Starmer has six doctorates, one from LSE, eight books to his name and experience managing 8000 staff as DPP.

As ex-QC of the year and a KBE he will immediately get a lot more respect from the establishment than most party leaders in recent years, and that's worth its weight in gold.

After being up close today, yes he does come across as quite focused, but there were light moments and why gift the right wing media anything?
 
Starmer has six doctorates, one from LSE

Six honorary doctorates. No mean feat, I’m sure, but not quite the same thing as six actual PhDs. He doesn’t have one of those, does he? And surely no one has six!?
 
I think you’re probably right about that. Starmer will come across as stiff and boring against Johnson, no matter his command of the facts.

I actually think the candidate with the best chance against Johnson is probably Phillips. Not because she’s the consummate politician - without wishing to be mean, I don’t think she is. But because Johnson won’t know what to do with or about her. She’s so far from the kind of opponent he’s used to that I think it might throw him. And he feels used to being able to dismiss people like her (‘...humbug’, as he so repellently put it not long ago), but would have to engage if she were at the other side of the dispatch box. Politically she’d sidestep the continuity Corbyn etc jibes, too.

No idea how she’d get on in the job otherwise, but as a foil to BJ, she might be the best chance.
Tend to agree. Command of facts will be irrelevant if no one is interested in facts, and as the country has just voted in the big fat fact free zone that is Boris Dupliffitous Johnson, it appears they’re not.

Not sure about Phillips though, she’s loud and might be able to punch through Johnson’s bluster, but she lacks depth.
 
Half the public already think we're a joke, the last thing Labour need is another comedian. The party needs a credible leader who understands economics and prioritisation, and quickly! Starmer has six doctorates, one from LSE, eight books to his name and experience managing 8000 staff as DPP.

As ex-QC of the year and a KBE he will immediately get a lot more respect from the establishment than most party leaders in recent years, and that's worth its weight in gold.

After being up close today, yes he does come across as quite focused, but there were light moments and why gift the right wing media anything?
You certainly get a better picture of someone in person than just on telly. Was he good?
 
FWIW I think Starmer will be shredded by Johnson. His lack of humour and his lack of good effective confrontational argument will soon be very apparent.

Johnson is a vacuous lazy lying clown with a very nasty temper who has got away with his chaotic life choices purely by being born into such absurd levels of wealth and privilege he doesn’t need to care. He is now, for the first time in his life, right in the spotlight. Starmer is a detail man, analytical, precise and very well read from a legal and constitutional perspective. He would quietly and forensically tear Johnson limb from limb.
 
Johnson is a vacuous lazy lying clown with a very nasty temper who has got away with his chaotic life choices purely by being born into such absurd levels of wealth and privilege he doesn’t need to care. He is now, for the first time in his life, right in the spotlight. Starmer is a detail man, analytical, precise and very well read from a legal and constitutional perspective. He would quietly and forensically tear Johnson limb from limb.
So quiet that nobody would hear.
 
I think you’re probably right about that. Starmer will come across as stiff and boring against Johnson, no matter his command of the facts.

I actually think the candidate with the best chance against Johnson is probably Phillips. Not because she’s the consummate politician - without wishing to be mean, I don’t think she is. But because Johnson won’t know what to do with or about her. She’s so far from the kind of opponent he’s used to that I think it might throw him.
That’s an interesting take. I can see the merit in it, but the other side of the job is actually to lead the party. Ability to wrong foot the government, particularly the PM and cabinet, is important, but so is the ability to have the party cohere behind you. It’d be a Pyrrhic victory if the leader clawed back the electability thing, only for the party itself to throw it away through factionalism.
 
What if the choice isn't, or shouldn't be, gravitas and grasp of detail vs charisma? What if it included, "Some understanding of the underlying issues driving nationalism and hobbling Labour, and ideas about how to confront them?"

It's interesting that by far the most popular candidate, here and elsewhere, is offering least in the way of change. Starmer's pitch so far is that he'll keep the policies and he won't criticise Corbyn. Nothing else is really mentioned. Substantively, it's "One last push, but with better hair and forensic levels of detail." This might be correct but coming from people who've insisted that the policies appealed only to the base, that they constituted class war, that elections are only ever won from the centre, it's passing strange. Perhaps this is all they ever meant? That whatever you do, do it with someone who looks and acts the part?

Maybe this is the case, and it will turn out that for all the catastrophising about the collapse of political institutions, rise of populism, exhaustion of free markets etc., the next few elections are just going to come down to personality and professionalism. It would certainly make everything easier.

I know everyone rolls their eyes when lefties say "But the media!" But political personality is 90% media construct and our media is basically on a war footing. The press is, literally in some cases (Telegraph) the PM's mouthpiece. By far the most important broadcaster, the BBC, edits footage of the PM to cover up his gaffes and his unpopularity, and uncritically channels CCHQ's attacks on the opposition. The PM's supporters, meanwhile, already know that he's a liar, a philanderer, a buffoon, and have either already priced that in to their support or positively approve of it. I just don't see anyone "quietly and forensically tearing Johnson apart" in this kind of setting. Or competing on charisma, for that matter.
 
What if the choice isn't, or shouldn't be, gravitas and grasp of detail vs charisma? What if it included, "Some understanding of the underlying issues driving nationalism and hobbling Labour, and ideas about how to confront them?"

What if the majority of the electorate couldn't give a **** about underlying issues, only how a party will affect them individually? What if the only way to win their vote is to have that difficult to define quality of 'statesmanship'?

It's interesting that by far the most popular candidate, here and elsewhere, is offering least in the way of change. Starmer's pitch so far is that he'll keep the policies and he won't criticise Corbyn.

AIUI, the leading reasons for Labour losing votes was leadership and in particular Corbyn, the Manifesto size and Brexit. Fundamentally, these were all issues of presentation and in particular, how they were portrayed in the media. A strategy of not changing the policies but playing with the message and the medium seems eminently sensible to me. Election results since 1997 show it's style over substance that win it and, yes that's wrong, but it's not going t change just because Labour activists point out it's wrong.
 
Surely the thing we know about Johnson from his short time as PM is that, despite his reputation, he is *terrible* at PMQs and other performative aspects of politics. His schtick only works in an after dinner or quiz show context as he is farcically shallow and, even more than Cameron, gets wound up and flounders at the slightest provocation. We all watched agog at his PMQs because this was precisely the thing he was meant to be good at and the main reason the Tories got rid of May.
 
Half the public already think we're a joke, the last thing Labour need is another comedian. The party needs a credible leader who understands economics and prioritisation, and quickly! Starmer has six doctorates, one from LSE, eight books to his name and experience managing 8000 staff as DPP.

As ex-QC of the year and a KBE he will immediately get a lot more respect from the establishment than most party leaders in recent years, and that's worth its weight in gold.

After being up close today, yes he does come across as quite focused, but there were light moments and why gift the right wing media anything?

He is the establishment according to The Sun. If that's what you want. The right wing media will have him for breakfast...
 
What if the majority of the electorate couldn't give a **** about underlying issues, only how a party will affect them individually? What if the only way to win their vote is to have that difficult to define quality of 'statesmanship'?



AIUI, the leading reasons for Labour losing votes was leadership and in particular Corbyn, the Manifesto size and Brexit. Fundamentally, these were all issues of presentation and in particular, how they were portrayed in the media. A strategy of not changing the policies but playing with the message and the medium seems eminently sensible to me. Election results since 1997 show it's style over substance that win it and, yes that's wrong, but it's not going t change just because Labour activists point out it's wrong.
This is a leadership election, not a general election. Labour isn't likely to face the electorate for another 5 years. The leader will have an important role shaping the party organisationally and strategically over that time. The electorate might not care about how that happens but they are going to judge us on the results of the process. Starmer's showing no sign that he thinks any of this is important. It's a worry: it either means he doesn't really have any clear ideas on the matter, or doesn't think members need to worry their pretty heads about it. Personally I don't think tweaking the messaging is going to be enough, and again I'm surprised that so many of Corbyn's critics seem to think it is.
 
Surely the thing we know about Johnson from his short time as PM is that, despite his reputation, he is *terrible* at PMQs and other performative aspects of politics. His schtick only works in an after dinner or quiz show context as he is farcically shallow and, even more than Cameron, gets wound up and flounders at the slightest provocation. We all watched agog at his PMQs because this was precisely the thing he was meant to be good at and the main reason the Tories got rid of May.
But what we also know, based on the election result, is that none of that really matters, and even if it does become a problem the media (not all of it: enough) will manage it for him.
 
He is the establishment according to The Sun. If that's what you want. The right wing media will have him for breakfast...
He is respected and appears to receive little flac from the media. If he initially sells himself as a stabilising lead this will probably help him as he grows into the roll. I think Phillips is robust but I fear she will heckle and provoke as a leader and this will lead to stasis.
 
What if the choice isn't, or shouldn't be, gravitas and grasp of detail vs charisma? What if it included, "Some understanding of the underlying issues driving nationalism and hobbling Labour, and ideas about how to confront them?"

It's interesting that by far the most popular candidate, here and elsewhere, is offering least in the way of change. Starmer's pitch so far is that he'll keep the policies and he won't criticise Corbyn. Nothing else is really mentioned. Substantively, it's "One last push, but with better hair and forensic levels of detail." This might be correct but coming from people who've insisted that the policies appealed only to the base, that they constituted class war, that elections are only ever won from the centre, it's passing strange. Perhaps this is all they ever meant? That whatever you do, do it with someone who looks and acts the part?

Maybe this is the case, and it will turn out that for all the catastrophising about the collapse of political institutions, rise of populism, exhaustion of free markets etc., the next few elections are just going to come down to personality and professionalism. It would certainly make everything easier.

I know everyone rolls their eyes when lefties say "But the media!" But political personality is 90% media construct and our media is basically on a war footing. The press is, literally in some cases (Telegraph) the PM's mouthpiece. By far the most important broadcaster, the BBC, edits footage of the PM to cover up his gaffes and his unpopularity, and uncritically channels CCHQ's attacks on the opposition. The PM's supporters, meanwhile, already know that he's a liar, a philanderer, a buffoon, and have either already priced that in to their support or positively approve of it. I just don't see anyone "quietly and forensically tearing Johnson apart" in this kind of setting. Or competing on charisma, for that matter.
So what's the answer then?

Feedback from the doorstep appeared to be negative towards Corbyn & that the policy 'rosta' was perhaps too long/undeliverable. Both of these can be addressed.

The media is what it's always been but has less power in absolute terms than it did 20 years ago. A coordinated professional comms strategy would go a long way.

Starmer is the best candidate IMHO but it is perhaps the next person who will win (whoever that may be).
 
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