advertisement


Ukraine III

Status
Not open for further replies.
notaclue said:
NATO is on heightened alert. Extra deployments of troops and weapons. Preparing for war.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1503738606912950278

Which is not to say that they are expecting war. Just preparing for one.
Click to expand...

With Russian missiles now landing so close to the Polish border, I expect these preparations to intensify.

It feels to me like we are just one Russian targeting error away from a dramatic escalation.
 
Sue Pertwee-Tyr said:
Why would it be different if Putin were acting against a NATO member, though? Does NATO having a mutual agreement turn the 'meddling' into 'support'? And if so, does not having an agreement in place mean that no country should be permitted to go to the aid of another country which has been attacked?
Click to expand...

Sorry I missed this point. You mean NATO having mutual agreement with a non member state ? (UKR)

Sure I accept that. I just simply gave my view that IMHO of course sending arms into Ukraine is gonna amplify the bloodshed. Just my view, hope I’m wrong.
 
ks.234 said:
Wouldn’t it be rather more surprising if NATO was not on heightened alert
Click to expand...
This to me highlights how this conflict can escalate inadvertently.

i recall the incident when Turkish F16 shot down a Russian Su-24 which was landing post sortie at Khemenim. Turks said the Su-24 entered their airspace, Russians said it didn’t.

(Thankfully in that case things did not escalate. But to my view there was potential. )
 
And of course it was just a question of time when such a collage shows up....

LNz6jAAl.jpg
 
Hook said:
With Russian missiles now landing so close to the Polish border, I expect these preparations to intensify.

It feels to me like we are just one Russian targeting error away from a dramatic escalation.
Click to expand...

Don't underestimate a power of targeting "errors". NATO bombed Chinese Embassy in Belgrade into rubble during 1999 war against Yugoslavia, as a consequence of "using outdated maps"...
 
I wouldn't take the sabre rattling of a jabbering Tory minister ( "one toe etc etc")to count for sod all in the calculations of any NATO military response for a accidental shelling into alliance territory. Sensible heads will prevail.
 
flatpopely said:
If you kill someone whilst not in the armed forces, or those licensed to use lethal force in a war, it’s murder. That’s how I see it.
Click to expand...


If you are a Ukrainian civilian under attack from the Russians, do you really think that you should be prosecuted for murder if you shoot a bunch of invading foreign soldiers who are breaking into your home and trying to kill you and yours? Especially after watching said soldiers randomly shooting civilians?

Seriously?

Thinking you need to put some qualifiers on your statement.
 
mykel said:
If you are a Ukrainian civilian under attack from the Russians, do you really think that you should be prosecuted for murder if you shoot a bunch of invading foreign soldiers who are breaking into your home and trying to kill you and yours? Especially after watching said soldiers randomly shooting civilians?

Seriously?

Thinking you need to put some qualifiers on your statement.
Click to expand...
I was talking about a UK citizen travelling there.
 
Finnegan said:
Fascism is essentially a revolt of the lower middle class in times of great political and economic crises. Big business possesses sufficient wealth to weather economic slumps, working class organisation takes the form or trade unions. It’s the small business person, self employed, tradesmen etc who feel caught in the middle and are attracted to ‘the great leader’ and his promise to deliver them from financial ruin. This is why fascism frequently employs radical sounding anti-capitalist rhetoric.

Nazism was peculiar in that it combined a virulent ideological anti-Semitic Aryan supremacy with the more traditional murderous authoritarianism. Fascism is not necessarily predominantly racist in character. It was not a major feature of either Mussolini’s or Franco’s dictatorships.

Classical fascist movements combine an electoral strategy with a street movement that, left unchecked, develops into a paramilitary unit that terrorises and ultimately aims to smash working class resistance-the left, trade unions etc. It frequently seeks a scapegoat, Jews, immigrants, ‘wokeism’ etc.

Fascism is distinguished from other forms of authoritarianism by the ideological commitment of its base. Historic examples demonstrate that the police force can be unreliable and the army prone to mutiny, whilst ideologically intoxicated Storm Troopers are much more reliable. Fascism is a distinct and distinctly dangerous phenomenon. Simply labelling any authoritarian figure (Trump, Putin) as a fascist is unhelpful as it can obscure the emergence of genuine fascism, which must be eliminated at birth.
Click to expand...
I think Putin's Russia has steadily acquired the other features you list to qualify as a near-fascist or full-fascist entity. Checks all the main boxes.
 
gx502 said:
yes perhaps. I am just stating things as I see them. (But I have spent many years and sleepless nights looking into 9/11. In my view there’s a lot there to be concerned about, but this is not the place for that discussion)

also yes I agree the current NATO doctrine is deliberately ambiguous. Also I am not privy to what each parties intelligence tells them about the strategic situation. I am just an external observer. I know that Russia is explicitly stating it’s concerns about NATO expansion, and I know they have stated their concerns for a long time now. Also when their redlines are crossed we can see them take action. Is it all just to protect a gangster state?

But I do think there so much one way traffic in the reporting and discussion on this conflict.

my views are heavily influenced but what I have seen in recent conflicts like Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria. Also the earlier Iran/Iraq war which I believe was a proxy war.


So what I would ask is are Russia’s strategic concerns totally null and void ?? Are they just Russian gangsters or deluded fools ?

I’m not buying the overall narrative that Putin is a comic book villain launching an aggressive invasion of the Ukraine. I don’t think its so simple.

The whole colour revolution in Ukraine, back in 2014 was extremely fishy.
Click to expand...
Your argument seems to be that "revolution was fishy," so Putin's concerns that led him to brutally attack Ukraine are legitimate.

That's really thin soup.
 
gx502 said:
Well Victoria Nuland for one. I recall at the time seasoned journalists in White House press briefing (Matt Lee AP) discussing Nuland’s leaked phone conversation when she says using strong language who the state department want as Ukraines next PM. I recall the journalists in a state of shock asking surely the Ukrainian people get to pick their next PM?

jen Psaki (WH Spox) replied that these are just discussions and there’s nothing to see here.

Then sure enough Nulands man, Yats gets made the new PM.
Click to expand...
Nuland is a constant bugaboo on Russian state media, a kind of a russophobic evil genius with superpowers.
 
gustav_errata said:
Aside from one BBC headline it's hard to see if any of those are from actual news sources or just propaganda rags.
Click to expand...

Well I killed two minutes by typing in the headlines of some of them - these were the top hit on google. Make of it what you will

Britons join neo-Nazi militia in Ukraine | The Week UK
Ukraine: Far-Right Fighters from Europe Fight for Ukraine | Eurasianet
Nazi symbols, salutes on display at Ukrainian nationalist march | The Times of Israel
Ukraine army extremists brag of Canadian training: report | CTV News
 
paulfromcamden said:
Just saw someone refer to the Ukrainian military as 'CNTL Z' which I thought was rather good!
Click to expand...

Seeker_UK said:
It's not straightforward.

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-03-04...go-to-ukraine-to-fight-against-russian-troops
Click to expand...

Yeah - I cant see it being as simple. Boils down to the definition of 'unlawful' really:

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) continues to advise against all travel to Ukraine and told ITV News that "anyone who travels to conflict zones to engage in unlawful activity should expect to be investigated" when they return to Britain.

Would the DPP really want to prosecute people returning from fighting on the Ukrainian side against the Russian invasion ?

Cant see them wanting to go public in defence of that.
 
DimitryZ said:
Your argument seems to be that "revolution was fishy," so Putin's concerns that led him to brutally attack Ukraine are legitimate.

That's really thin soup.
Click to expand...
No I don’t think I link the two directly. At least I hope I don’t.

I honestly don’t know if Russia’s security concerns about NATO expansion are valid.

i am reluctant to post links as it can result in debates of the veracity of the sources. But I honestly recall that this issue was brought up/ discussed when the Soviet Union broke up.

a link below I don’t know if it’s helpful, but it matches my recollection of that time:

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-...on-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early
 
DimitryZ said:
Nuland is a constant bugaboo on Russian state media, a kind of a russophobic evil genius with superpowers.
Click to expand...

Not sure how to take the above. I just know that I don’t like her much.

Yeah I think she is part of the US neo-con group. I read somewhere due to her family background she speaks Russian.
 
gx502 said:
No I don’t think I link the two directly. At least I hope I don’t.

I honestly don’t know if Russia’s security concerns about NATO expansion are valid.

i am reluctant to post links as it can result in debates of the veracity of the sources. But I honestly recall that this issue was brought up/ discussed when the Soviet Union broke up.

a link below I don’t know if it’s helpful, but it matches my recollection of that time:

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-...on-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early
Click to expand...

Seems totally bizarre to me: if Putin is so concerned about eastward NATO expansion, then why does he want Ukraine? If he takes Ukraine then he will have two NATO countries right on his border: Poland and Slovakia (not including the Kaliningrad enclave). His logic seems to be: I'm concerned about NATO expansion, so I'll expand my territory right up to the NATO borders...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.


advertisement


Back
Top