Summary
In the week before the dissolution of Parliament, the Centre for Macroeconomics asked its panel of experts about the effects of governments on aggregate economic activity.
The great majority of respondents disagree with the proposition that the coalition government’s austerity policies have had a positive effect on aggregate economic activity. And an overwhelming majority of respondents agree that the outcome of the general election (assuming a stable government is formed) will have non-trivial consequences for economic activity.
The policies of the coalition government
Question 1: Do you agree that the austerity policies of the coalition government have had a positive effect on aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP) in the UK?
Summary of responses
The great majority disagree or disagree strongly with the proposition. Of the 50 economists in the survey, 33 responded: two thirds disagree or strongly disagree that coalition policies have had a positive effect on aggregate economic activity. To be precise, no one strongly agrees, 15% agree, 18% neither agree nor disagree, 33% disagree and 33% strongly disagree. Ignoring those who sat on the fence, 19% agree and 81% disagree with the proposition.