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Oh Britain, what have you done (part XXII)?

Discussion in 'off topic' started by richgilb, Oct 14, 2017.

  1. richgilb

    richgilb pfm Member

    I mean making strategic decisions about where to invest will require more than Merlin's stats. If I was thinking of upping sticks and moving my business to another country (which is practically what I have just done by the way) I'd need more than that, also I'd need stats on my own company for example, company aspirations etc. I don't think Merlin has all that. And if he did I wouldn't be reading it. So I could not possibly comment.

    But if you are going to discredit the de facto markers used to determine how big an economy is, fair enough. I'm not arguing. But I'll carry on using the de facto markers.
     
  2. merlin

    merlin pfm Member

    Trade deficits are a de facto marker of the health of an economy Rich.

    If your company has a turnover of £200 million but an annual loss (real not fabricated) of £20 million, does that make you worth investing in long term?
     
  3. richgilb

    richgilb pfm Member

    I would not compare a company as an investment against a country as a place to open shop. I'm not arguing that you should not, but I don't think like that.
     
  4. Sue Pertwee-Tyr

    Sue Pertwee-Tyr pfm Member

    OK, but the wider point, which you seem to be missing, is that 'fifth largest' is not the same as 'fifth best', 'fifth most secure' or 'fifth most prosperous'.
     
  5. richgilb

    richgilb pfm Member

    I think I covered that by illustrating that we are in decline.
     
  6. merlin

    merlin pfm Member

    I didn't feel you did Rich.

    You said
    The metrics suggest a failing economy that is living on borrowed time. A nation that has been extensively asset stripped, can no longer do the same to foreign lands, and is paying its way using a credit card that is approaching its limit.

    That's somewhat different to your inference.
     
  7. wacko

    wacko pfm Member

    And it is no longer 5th anything: India and France are now higher and UK is 7th.
     
  8. richgilb

    richgilb pfm Member

    Someone has mentioned this before. Where does that come from? Latest World Bank GDP figures show UK is 5th, India and France just behind.
     
  9. TheDecameron

    TheDecameron You're home early...

    I think what it's saying is you might have been better relocating to a business park in Bangalore Rich.
     
  10. richgilb

    richgilb pfm Member

    To be honest, there's an ill wind everywhere in my retail world. Germany, France and UK are all worryingly quiet.

    So you might be right.
     
  11. eternumviti

    eternumviti pfm Member

    I think that if you looked at the wider figures you would find that all of Europe is in decline, certainly in terms of proportion of global GDP, and it is rapid.
     
  12. jay

    jay built for speed

    That doesn't necessarily mean anything (assuming you mean GDP).

    Emerging economies can grow quickly simply because of a smaller base. They'll eventually have a number of structural challenges to overcome to maintain that growth. Mature economies, like ours and mainland Europe, should (and do) expect slower growth as a proportion. Nothing wrong with that.

    What will be very interesting is automation in modern economies and how quickly large scale enablers are put into place. As I understand it software development is ripe, build/write one module that can be used for multiple applications is a simple example. Consumer self-serve developments for years, where once you had someone book a trip or even pump gas into your car there's now little need, you do it yourself...

    It will also be interesting to see whether service or manufacturing based economies are hit the hardest. One of the theories behind Trump's America first policy is to reduce trade efficiencies so that jobs can be maintained in the country and protected from automation.

    Wider concerns can put Brexit or Trumpism into perspective...
     
  13. richgilb

    richgilb pfm Member

    Yes fair enough.
     
  14. richgilb

    richgilb pfm Member

    He is talking abut GDP not GDP growth the latter being a bit unstable. My wires get crossed when I read your post. I would normally say something like that when referring to GDP growth, not GDP.
     
  15. TheDecameron

    TheDecameron You're home early...

    I think EV is saying he should open in Bangalore too.
     
  16. richgilb

    richgilb pfm Member

    I spent 12 years with the DTI encouraging SMEs to export too places appropriate to them and their situation. Remember these terms...BRIC MINT? Sounds dated now. But anyway, although overall we failed to stimulate significant additional exports in my opinion, we did see a significant change on where we exported to, which might have helped to stabilize things. When I started working there it was something like 55% EU, 45% non-EU exports, and by the time I had left it was the other way round.

    This in mind, it is not really about where we set up shop, more where we sell to. The shop is only the method of distribution. And if enough people want to buy my stuff in Bangalore, I'll gladly consider a presence there of some kind.
     
  17. jay

    jay built for speed

    It's about even now after you discount the increase in gold exported post referendum.
     
  18. Still

    Still gyldengourd

    Maybe Tony should offshore pfm there too?
    istm he could save a fortune in moderation and record storage costs alone.
     
  19. blossomchris

    blossomchris pfm Member

    Will not the vinyl suffer in that heat, let alone the equipment residual output.

    Bloss
     
  20. Still

    Still gyldengourd

    iiuc pfm currently spends a lot of money on heating, so if the financial projections are incorrect air-con in India will be cheaper.
     

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