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War with China?

Discussion in 'off topic' started by tones, Sep 24, 2021.

  1. Yank

    Yank Bulbous Also Tapered

    While we're wondering about possible Chinese expansionist adventurism, anyone think a Russian takeover of Ukraine and maybe the Baltics may be looming?
  2. Frizzy

    Frizzy Liberal anarchist

    Agree the general public rarely think past their wallets, tories are masters of managing this, yeah, go on buy your council house and ensure your children are homeless adults.
    May not like Chinese autocracy but I admire guile and patience, they have been promoting a revised nationalist agenda so well that the vast majority of Han Chinese feel totally comfortable with.
  3. Waxy

    Waxy Active Member

    Once the ramifications of climate change bite, China will be as f***ed as everyone else. Taiwan will be a footnote in history in comparison.
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2021
    mega lord likes this.
  4. Mullardman

    Mullardman Moderately extreme...

    I told you so. :p
  5. Mike Reed

    Mike Reed pfm Member

    My wife is from the Republic of China (Taiwan) and grew up with bouts of sabre-rattling by the People's Republic of China. Because I've read of much more aggression from the latter in recent years, I pass on this apparent threat, but she isn't concerned, despite large family connections in Taiwan.

    Taiwan was, until recently, 'protected;' by American promises; maybe that's still the case, but probably not so dependable as, say, 15 to 20 years ago. Mainland China is a different place with a different and seemingly permanent leader; the new, modern Mao.

    However, Taiwanese business is embedded on the mainland and economic disruption for both countries would be difficult. Taiwanese are Han Chinese and speak Mandarin (unlike Hong Kong for the latter), The Kuomintang, remnants from C.K.S. (Cash My Cheque), has always pursued the policy of a united China, only in different ways to the mainland. It's the independence party (currently in power, I believe) that adds to the threat as seen from across the strait.

    Taiwan is a prosperous, modern and very civilised country (but with appalling architecture), has an effective and well-equipped military, albeit no match for the CCP. It is the largest producer of silicon chips and has an excellent technical and industrial base and one of the most effective democracies and efficient governments; certainly compared to the U.K. anyway.

    I've no doubt that Taiwan will be incorporated into China at some juncture but an invasion would almost equate to a civil war and probably trigger much wider conflagration. If this can be done peacefully, as has been the aim on both sides when the Kuomintang were governing, so much the better. However canny and powerful the Chinese leader is, he has enough economic problems in his own country at the mo'. Not sure what gains would be made for China anyway. His Belt and Road strategy appears to be unravelling somewhat, and he needs to maintain/improve world standing, which has slipped of late. The recent 'containment' plans by geographically well-placed countries creates a potential threat for China but they're just that; plans. North Korea could be a fly in the ointment too. w.r.t. China.
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2021
    sean99 and PhilofCas like this.
  6. davidsrsb

    davidsrsb pfm Member

    Nobody wants the consequences of a real fight, China, all the West coast US cities and maybe Korea and Japan gone would make Einsteins prediction of the 4th world war being fought with bows and arrows come true
  7. Frizzy

    Frizzy Liberal anarchist

    The way China thinks I wonder if they will build a huge island bridge to annex the errant island, I also feel China is far more concerned about its Asian neighbours than USA or the European Union. Sooner rather than later Kashmir and Sri lanka (which gave China a free port) are far more important issues, Indian and Chinese nationalism worry me, and Pakistan is a basket case.(with nukes)
  8. Mike Reed

    Mike Reed pfm Member

    I'm all of a quiver.:)
    MUTTY1 likes this.
  9. paulfromcamden

    paulfromcamden Baffled

    Maybe as a country we do get the government we deserve... but I dunno. Look at the choice we're given at the polling station.
    Sue Pertwee-Tyr likes this.
  10. russel

    russel ./_dazed_and_confused

    I think it suits Russia to have a weakened Ukraine draining the West of resources, also there are Western troops in most of the Baltic states to give notice if “little green men” suddenly start appearing. The worry is if Israel provokes a war with Iran, that could easily give China a green light for Taiwan.
  11. Tantris

    Tantris pfm Member

    Mike - very interesting. My wife is from Hong Kong, and gives me a perspective from the Chinese language media which is very different from many of the European and American assumptions. I would argue that many of the recent policy changes in China - described as a 'crackdown' - are actually to ensure that China does not become a state largely owned by corporate interests, and to put the interests of the ordinary person first. Painful, to be sure, and some investors will lose money, but definitely done with an eye to the long term. I don't see similar leadership or vision in the West, to be frank. The fundamental economic problem on the mainland is the reliance on debt, particularly in the property sector, and it remains to be seen what the fall out from Evergrande will be. However, I don't think that the 'Belt and Road' strategy is unravelling - in fact, I'd argue that China is gaining significant influence.

    I'm not sure how to interpret what is currently happening in the South China Sea and the Taiwan strait, and to predict what might happen. There are ongoing territorial and fishing rights disputes, and the militarisation of the region does make an accident more likely to happen. My own view, which I've held for some time, is that at some time the main countries will need to make a choice as to who they look for for security. Key to this will be Japan and Korea: despite their current links to and dependence on the US, there is a strong undercurrent of anti-American sentiment which goes back to WW2 and the Korean war. The way in which competing technology develops in both the US and China over the next couple of decades may well be a key factor in the choice that they face. My understanding is that there is a vigorous debate in Taiwan on the merits and demerits of reunion with China - if correct, my view is that this will be the key piece in determining the future of Taiwan, and we can expect strong pressure from both the US and China to influence this debate. We've seen this most recently with Covid-19 vaccine supplies. I'd certainly be interested in the views of the Taiwanese people on this.
    Mike Reed likes this.
  12. MUTTY1

    MUTTY1 Waste of bandwidth

    I know everyone loves to beat Tony Blair up over Iraq but he was pretty good. Nothing since has come close if we just stop dreaming of a wonderful world. Cameron/Johnson is typical of the bright kids that get sent off to private schools by successful parents that are too busy for bringing up kids and you get these beautifully honed damaged individuals running the country.-
  13. Heckyman

    Heckyman pfm Member

    It's not a given that a new Chinese hegemony would be worse for the rest of the word — including the UK — than the current American one.
    Sue Pertwee-Tyr likes this.
  14. davidsrsb

    davidsrsb pfm Member

    I suspect that japan will have their own nuclear weapons very soon, they have had the knowledge to make and deliver them a long time
  15. Tony L

    Tony L Administrator

    I’d be very surprised. The amount of death and destruction they cause is better understood there than anywhere else. From what little I understand about Japan it appears, entirely understandably, to be an actively anti-nuclear WMD nation.
    Barry123 likes this.
  16. Kirk

    Kirk pfm Member

    The West erroneously assumed a more prosperous China would play by the rules and become more democratic. It is now grappling with the fallout.
  17. Mike Reed

    Mike Reed pfm Member

    Some insightful observations there, Tantris, though I would expect the Chinese media coverage to differ a wee bit from that of the west (!). I put your comment above to my wife, who dismissed it all with a 'most of Taiwanese would like to reunite with the Chinese mainland'. After living here for 20 years, I think she's still accepting the Kuomintang aims as paramount and indicative of today's Taiwan, but the independence party has been ruling successfully for quite some time now.

    Her brother, now in his upper sixties, is a bit of a statesman, having built up a q.c. business and lecturing etc. and I wonder what he would say to the question to my wife yesterday, ' If there was a referendum on unification with China under their political aegis, what would be the outcome?

    Whereas there could conceivably be a 'one country, two systems' approach like H.K. (as was !), I very much doubt that the younger (i.e. <50) population of the 44 million Taiwanese would countenance losing or risking their freedoms, let alone having their economic and business prowess subject to potential nationalisation and governmental restrictions.

    I have to disagree with your comment re. the belt and road incursions, though you have a good point about China's recent reinforcement by distributing vaccines. Some African countries, I seem to recall a year or three back, were seriously questioning their mineral wealth extraction and Chinese labour management procedures.

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