It’s an interesting one. Both fear Labour so reason would dictate a dirty pact but they both despise each other and they’re the existential threat to each other. Hubris might win and they’ll go for each other’s throats in the belief they can win. That would be the ideal situation.I don't see any mystery about their intentions. I will be stunned if farage does anything other than help the Tories along.
Two cheeks of the same arse.
That would be great but I can't see it. They would risk losing everything and have so little to gain.It’s an interesting one. Both fear Labour so reason would dictate a dirty pact but they both despise each other and they’re the existential threat to each other. Hubris might win and they’ll go for each other’s throats in the belief they can win. That would be the ideal situation.
Ian Dunt is wrong about this, and I wish he'd speak out.More on the Best for Britain tactical voting site from Ian Dunt : https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1189818962919481344
As long as getvoting continues to recommend voting Lib-Dem in Sheffield Hallam, it must be seen as partisan.
Even if you're right (debatable), so what?Huh? Sheffield Hallam is a long term safe Lib Dem seat, Nick Clegg’s, only lost temporarily to Labour due to a backlash against the Tory coalition.
As long as getvoting continues to recommend voting Lib-Dem in Sheffield Hallam, it must be seen as partisan. Hallam is a hotly contested Lab/LD marginal, full of university types, and the Conservatives stand no chance here. Correct advice is to voteLab or LD, according to preference.
Do you know what algorithm they are using? Maybe they are looking back further than 2017, factoring in Nick Clegg's falling popularity, or considering the problems with Jared O'Mara.
I don't. The opacity of the method is part of the problem. But I don't think it's anywhere near as granular as you suggest (hence the vote Graham Stringer gaff).Do you know what algorithm they are using? Maybe they are looking back further than 2017, factoring in Nick Clegg's falling popularity, or considering the problems with Jared O'Mara.
I don't. The opacity of the method is part of the problem. But I don't think it's anywhere near as granular as you suggest (hence the vote Graham Stringer gaff).
Personally, I think there's a case for looking at the last two or three GE results and making an informed choice based on those. The 2010 result will give an indication of the underlying strength of potential LD support in constituencies where they got hammered post-coalition, and that's useful info. The rest is voodoo.
get voting said:A lot has happened since the last General Election in 2017. Some parties have new leaders, others have changed their Brexit policies. This means we can’t rely on the 2017 vote shares in each seat to help us predict what will happen this time. Instead, our recommendations use a technique called multilevel regression and post stratification or MRP for short. It’s now the favoured approach of most political forecasters, and was used to correctly predict the election of Donald Trump, and the surprise wins for Labour in Kensington and Canterbury in 2017. The MRP we have used for these recommendations was undertaken in October 2019 on a sample size of 46,000 voters. We also use, where available, political analysis of local candidates’ past statements and policies. So though our decisions are data-led, we take into account the political situation as well.
get voting said:The only way we stop Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage ramming Brexit through is for us to organize our vote -- tactically -- seat by seat, to ensure we maximise of our votes behind the strongest candidate against the Conservative/Brexit Parties. We recommend the candidate/party that is in the best position to defeat the Conservative/Brexit Parties. In some cases, it is obvious which party’s candidate is best placed to beat them. In others, it’s not so clear. Our recommendations take account of the political situation and, where possible, candidates’ known political positions, as well as the likely incumbency bounce of sitting MPs. The pro-European parties have made Remain Alliance agreements at the `national level for some constituencies, some agreements have been made at local level by campaigners and some individual candidates have made statements about tactical voting in their areas. Our recommendation attempts to take all this into account. Conversely, there may be constituencies where a Remain Alliance has been agreed but our data analysis proves it to be counterproductive and there is a candidate who is not participating in the ‘official’ Remain Alliance but who is pro-European and stands a better chance of being elected and beating the Conservatives/Brexit Party. In this case, we would recommend the alternative candidate.
Yes, it’s pretty straightforward. Just multi-level regression with post-stratification. Basically what I had thought all along. Then I would imagine they use an Orgone Accumulator to tidy the results a little.Do you know what algorithm they are using?
There is every chance that they are straight up idiots. I’m assuming good faith but also a massively exaggerated faith in “volatility”, polls and the significance of Brexit. See also: all pundits, including Dunt. Suspect there’s also some kind of weighting going on concerning individual candidates‘ stance on Brexit, as if that means anything. Only way to explain their recommendation to vote for Anna Soubrey, despite the fact that CHUK have been polling at 0% for months.From their FAQ: https://www.getvoting.org/faq.html
Although I am not sure that really clears much up. FWIW do trust Ian Dunt though and a number of others who have caused it to pop up in my twitter stream so I am at least confident that the people involved are likely to be straight up.
Doesn't explain the Graham Stringer recommendation though.There is every chance that they are straight up idiots. I’m assuming good faith but also a massively exaggerated faith in “volatility”, polls and the significance of Brexit. See also: all pundits, including Dunt. Suspect there’s also some kind of weighting going on concerning individual candidates‘ stance on Brexit, as if that means anything. Only way to explain their recommendation to vote for Anna Soubrey, despite the fact that CHUK have been polling at 0% for months.
Huh? Sheffield Hallam is a long term safe Lib Dem seat, Nick Clegg’s, only lost temporarily to Labour due to a backlash against the Tory coalition. The Libs should win it back with comparative ease this time, especially given how unsuited the Labour MP turned out to be. I’d be pretty stunned if they don’t take it back.
So any tactical voting site that recommends LD in Hallam is partisan.
There is every chance that they are straight up idiots. I’m assuming good faith but also a massively exaggerated faith in “volatility”, polls and the significance of Brexit. See also: all pundits, including Dunt. Suspect there’s also some kind of weighting going on concerning individual candidates‘ stance on Brexit, as if that means anything. Only way to explain their recommendation to vote for Anna Soubrey, despite the fact that CHUK have been polling at 0% for months.
I am seriously concerned about this approach. By taking recent polls, it just reflects the result tactical voting is designed to avoid - in this case Labour lose Kensington. It ignores the 2017 experience where Labour's poll position rose during the campaign, and LDs fell.