Vast Brexit thread merge part IV

[Deej]

I would like to see 8. The EU is far from perfect but I've always believed in remain and reform and that we're better being part of a club and using our influence than being outside it.

I don't think option 9 would be acceptable to the general public, who wouldn't tolerate ever closer union and the idea of joining Schengen with the free movement issues that would present, and the Eurozone which has had its fair share of problems.

 

[Steven Toy]

I’ve come to believe that a significant part of the UK’s concerns derive not from principled objections but from our long-ingrained insularity. We are an island nation; I hadn’t appreciated just how deep this runs in the national psyche.

An imperialistic island nation to boot, that's what we are. If we have to cooperate with others rather than calling the shots we end up sulking in a corner.

Ireland is also an island nation, in case anyone forgot. Its perspective is somewhat different. Ditto Scotland.

Even Wales only voted leave because of the number of English living there. This is specifically an English disease, the one of exceptionalist delusion.

And before anyone feigns offence, I am English. My wife is one quarter Irish.

 

[HairyHaggis]

Calling all rabid Remainers.

Come on you know who you are.

Hypothetical scenario type question for you:

1. EU/UK government reach an agreement. 2. UK Parliament ratifies it. UK leaves EU on 31 Oct. Medical/food supplies remain plentiful. 4. jaguar/Nissan don't go bust or up-sticks. 5. Bog paper freely available to those who wish to purchase it. 6. Johnson wins GE with a majority of 50.

How do you respond/what do you do next?

Raymond F

bit of a naive question and a bit pointless asking folk here...why not first define your terms and then why not ask "The aerospace, automotive, chemicals, food and drink and pharmaceutical sectors" because "The government is facing an unprecedented backlash from five key industries over Boris Johnson's plans for post-Brexit trading arrangements." they (The aerospace, automotive, chemicals, food and drink and pharmaceutical sectors) "warn they could pose "serious risk to manufacturing competitiveness".

ref: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50019069

i'd say that either blojo has had his arse handed to him on a plate or he's well and truly thrown the dup under a bus. either way...

 

[Colin L]

Calling all rabid Remainers.

Come on you know who you are.

Hypothetical scenario type question for you:

1. EU/UK government reach an agreement. 2. UK Parliament ratifies it. UK leaves EU on 31 Oct. Medical/food supplies remain plentiful. 4. jaguar/Nissan don't go bust or up-sticks. 5. Bog paper freely available to those who wish to purchase it. 6. Johnson wins GE with a majority of 50.

How do you respond/what do you do next?

Raymond F

Very hypothetical.

You do understand if there is a deal, however whiffy, that is just the start of the negotiations on the details of leaving and the future relationship. It will last for years and years, gobbling up government attention. This would just be the end of the beginning of the process.

No, thought not.

 

[Jamie]

I saw an interesting article a day or two ago, suggesting if there was another vote, and everyone voted the same way, then remain would win. This is due to many oldies (mostly pro-leave) popping their clogs, and many younger (who were previously not old enough to vote) upping the remain vote.

I am still holding out a (faint) hope.

 

[Tony L]

1. EU/UK government reach an agreement. 2. UK Parliament ratifies it. UK leaves EU on 31 Oct. Medical/food supplies remain plentiful. 4. jaguar/Nissan don't go bust or up-sticks. 5. Bog paper freely available to those who wish to purchase it. 6. Johnson wins GE with a majority of 50.

How do you respond/what do you do next?

I’d like you to add ‘7. no discernible impact to the GFA/NI peace process’ to that list, but assuming that too I’d swiftly find a suitable milliner and purchase some not so tasty food.

 

[roman]

Calling all rabid Remainers.

Come on you know who you are.

Hypothetical scenario type question for you:

1. EU/UK government reach an agreement. 2. UK Parliament ratifies it. UK leaves EU on 31 Oct. Medical/food supplies remain plentiful. 4. jaguar/Nissan don't go bust or up-sticks. 5. Bog paper freely available to those who wish to purchase it. 6. Johnson wins GE with a majority of 50.

How do you respond/what do you do next?

Raymond F

I would love to be wrong about everything brexit related (you'd need to extend your list to details of future us trade deals, harmony in Ireland etc). I just want things to work out well. Bit like climate change.

What about you? What will it take to make you realise it wasn't such a good idea after all?

 

[lordsummit]

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[Woodface]

On your last point, mist pills suggest otherwise, hence the government's desire for an election which would probably favour them.

Yes, you could be right but polls were wrong at the last one. I don't share your confidence.

 

[tuga]

Those darn windmills...keep popping up all over the place.

 

[Steven Toy]

I saw an interesting article a day or two ago, suggesting if there was another vote, and everyone voted the same way, then remain would win. This is due to many oldies (mostly pro-leave) popping their clogs, and many younger (who were previously not old enough to vote) upping the remain vote.

I am still holding out a (faint) hope.

I got into trouble with a mod for making the same point but what you say is perfectly true. One person's pattern modelling, analysis of statistics and trends is another's labeling, generalizing and discrimination.

 

[ff1d1l]

Calling all rabid Remainers.

Come on you know who you are.

Hypothetical scenario type question for you:

1. EU/UK government reach an agreement. 2. UK Parliament ratifies it. UK leaves EU on 31 Oct. Medical/food supplies remain plentiful. 4. jaguar/Nissan don't go bust or up-sticks. 5. Bog paper freely available to those who wish to purchase it. 6. Johnson wins GE with a majority of 50.

How do you respond/what do you do next?

Raymond F

It'll never happen.

But seriously...

Calling all rabid Leavers.

Come on you know who you are.

Hypothetical scenario type question for you:

1. EU/UK government fail to reach an agreement. 2. UK Parliament makes the johnson send the letter. UK doesn't leave EU on 31 Oct. 4. Another referendum is held, as after 3 plus years it finally dawns on tiny minded self interested politicians - as well as the good ones - that this is the only way to kill this toxicity. And with a 70% majority for remain, remainers stance of the last four years is vindicated 5. Bog paper freely available to those who wish to purchase it, to mop up after incontinent leavers, who are prosecuted retrospectively for a new offence, Technical Treason In the Pay of a Foreign Power, as the stuff about Banks, Cummings, the johnson et al is found to have serious foundation. 6. Greens/Plaid/SNP alliance wins GE with a majority of 50.

How do you respond/what do you do next?

Raymond Buntcubble

 

[tuga]

It'll never happen.

But seriously...

Calling all rabid Leavers.

Come on you know who you are.

Hypothetical scenario type question for you:

1. EU/UK government fail to reach an agreement. 2. UK Parliament makes the johnson send the letter. UK doesn't leave EU on 31 Oct. 4. Another referendum is held, as after 3 plus years it finally dawns on tiny minded self interested politicians - as well as the good ones - that this is the only way to kill this toxicity. And with a 70% majority for remain, remainers stance of the last four years is vindicated 5. Bog paper freely available to those who wish to purchase it, to mop up after incontinent leavers, who are prosecuted retrospectively for a new offence, Technical Treason In the Pay of a Foreign Power, as the stuff about Banks, Cummings, the johnson et al is found to have serious foundation. 6. Greens/Plaid/SNP alliance wins GE with a majority of 50.

How do you respond/what do you do next?

Raymond Buntcubble

 

[Steven Toy]

Yes, you could be right but polls were wrong at the last one. I don't share your confidence.

They weren't. It was always going to be a close call just like with the US presidential election. Statistical margin of error is generally agreed to be around 6% for opinion polls when the sample size is roughly a couple of thousand.

52 - 48 either way is within that margin. Hillary Clinton actually won the popular vote if not the Electoral College vote. The poll predictions were actually correct.

I agree that predicting the result of a UK general election is almost impossible.

 

[richardg]

My ideal is not there either. Dismantle it, put them out to grass and start again. Quite different from changing it on the inside.

 

[Jim Audiomisc]

8 - 9.

For me the basic arguments are simple:

A) We will have to deal with how the EU behave, in or out. Thus leaving just gives away our ability to try and change it to work in ways we'd prefer. In, they need to have some regard for us. Out, and they can simply exploit us.

B) It is quite clear many people in other EU countries now want it changed. So we'd do better to stay in and join with them in pushing for reforms rather than becoming shut out and exploited by the EU as it is now, leaving those we agree with still inside weaker.

FWIW at this point I'd wish for a second referendum. But have no idea of the outcome beyond noting that 50 million people did NOT vote for Brexit in the first place.

But in reality I'm mainly hoping for the 'least bad' consequences of the rash decision to leave. Any way you look at this, its a CF.

 

[ff1d1l]

My position is none of the above, which just goes to show the danger of anyone assuming they understand another's reasons for voting one way or the other. Of which there is rather a lot!

Considering that union is the ideal of Germany and France. two countries who's leaders have tried to conquer Europe in the last 230 years*, perhaps it's the elephant in the room?
* And counting.

So enlighten us. Maybe the OP would add it as an option.

 

[SteveT]

Mrs Kinnock was a Teaching Assistant as I recall. Lots of experience of EU Institutions. Got a much better Pension now than she would have got had she remained as a Teaching Assistant. As for Mr Kinnock hugely rewarded for successive failures. Talk about cronyism. Oh sorry no one was. My bad.

 

[Jim Audiomisc]

How many countries did the UK conquer during the last 230 years, I wonder. But I doubt we'll be doing much 'conquering' now. Indeed, I keep having the feeling that Brexiteers still think we can pick up the Empire as a support / trade mechanism. If so, they're in a for a shock.

And the creation of the EU was explicitly driven by France and Germany as a way to *prevent* any similar behaviours in future.

 

[Steven Toy]

Just to remind those ducking the question, here is the main point of my opening post:

I was tempted to conduct a poll but thought better of it as it would create too many arguments in itself. There are potentially 17.4 million different versions of Brexit, assuming that nobody has changed their mind since June 2016, of course. There are also a few versions of Remain too, I might add.

.

All 9 positions are approximate. Pick one that is the closest fit and then elaborate.

If none fit just elaborate.

If someone got in my taxi and just said, "Leave!" They would also be asked to leave if they didn't give me a destination.