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Vast Brexit thread merge part IV

Discussion in 'off topic' started by TheDecameron, Oct 11, 2019.

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  1. droodzilla

    droodzilla pfm Member

    A useful thread about the economic impact of Johnson's deal (spoiler: it's worse than May's):

    https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1182595006382645249

    Of course, this assumes Johnson is sincerely pursuing this option. Another possibility is that it's all a ruse to stop Parliament moving against him next week and/or another component of the "I did everything I could but the 'establishment' stole your Brexit" strategy.

    Either way, it's sh*t.
     
    TheDecameron likes this.
  2. Sue Pertwee-Tyr

    Sue Pertwee-Tyr pfm Member

    Certainly isn't pinko noise...
     
  3. tones

    tones Tones deaf

    jackbarron likes this.
  4. Steven Toy

    Steven Toy L3 Toy

    I was tempted to conduct a poll but thought better of it as it would create too many arguments in itself. There are potentially 17.4 million different versions of Brexit, assuming that nobody has changed their mind since June 2016, of course. There are also a few versions of Remain too, I might add.

    I have deliberately started a new thread for this having spent several days on the merged thread and made the following observations:

    ● Views appear more polarised than they probably are in reality.

    ● Arguments are repetitive or circular other than to reflect recent events, current state of play in negotiations, statements made by the key political players and industrialists/those representing other interests.

    ● The vast majority of participants are opposed to Brexit in all its possible forms.

    ● Nobody is illiterate or semi-literate and the standard of debate here is generally higher than that to be found in mainstream social media.

    ● A few individuals (maybe it's only one?) seem a little fact-shy or taken with 'alternative facts' and conspiracy theories. Either they genuinely believe such things or they hope others might if they share them.

    This is the Leave/Remain spectrum as I see it outlined below. You are free to adopt your own unique position upon this spectrum. Indeed, that is the point of this thread:

    1) The EU is a corrupt and failed organism which is doomed to collapse soon. I believe in the absolute sovereignty of nation states. The UK should exit as soon as possible without a withdrawal agreement or any other terms of surrender. Even if we have to eat grass and skin rats in order to survive we will be free.

    2) The EU is ok for continentals but not for us British/English. We are different and our destiny lies out there in the big wide world. We should be a free and sovereign nation and we can make a success of our new-found independence given time and sacrifice. We should leave the EU without a withdrawal agreement as any other option is not truly leaving and we won't reap the full benefits of a full and clean Brexit.

    3) We should be prepared to Leave without a withdrawal agreement if it gives us a chance of getting a better deal. No deal is better than a bad deal. A good deal is a Canada-style deal with little or no regulatory alignment. There is no point in leaving if we are simply going to be rule-takers. Ireland should not be used as an excuse to stop us leaving the customs union and single market but we will try to find a solution if there is one.

    (There is a position somewhere between 2 and 3 above where the intended landing point is at 2 but we go through the motions of trying to achieve 3 in order to maximise support).

    4) Leave the customs union and single market but instead have a deep and special relationship with the EU as an independent state. However, there is to be some degree of regulatory alignment on issues like the environment, worker and consumer rights and food safety. Implement or at least match the requirements of the EU Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive. The Irish backstop will kick in in the event of not being able to find any alternative solution either for the island of Ireland only or for the whole of the UK depending on whether we need the DUP or not.

    5) Leave the single market but maintain regulatory alignment and stay in the customs union as this is the only way we can protect the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement. We would also benefit from the EU's recent trade agreements with the likes of Japan and Canada.

    6) Some sort of bespoke arrangement with the EU like Switzerland has. Parlianent would be free to terminate any or all bilateral agreements made with the EU at any time mindful of the consequences of so doing. Ireland could be treated separately in order not to undermine the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.

    7) Join EFTA, stay in the single market but leave the customs union. Northern Ireland would stay in the CU and there would be light border controls similar to those between Norway and Sweden down the Irish Sea.

    8) Remain in the EU under current terms without any commitment to "ever closer union." Use our influence to reform the EU.

    9) Maximise our potential to reform the EU by becoming a full participant in the project, committed to ever closer union, joining Schengen and the euro at some point.

    My position is between 8 and 9. I want 9 but accept that there is little support for it in the UK.

    If we implemented the rules of Schengen properly and made sure that all citizens were registered and carried ID, (it doesn't have to be Tony Blair's super-expensive ID scheme) it could work. Freedom of movement should be for labour + dependents. That is how it works in other member states and that is why you rarely, if ever, see a homeless person in Germany who is not German. EU migrants who cannot sustain themselves can and should be deported to their country of origin in accordance with the original provisions of the Treaty of Rome, at least until they have lived in the host member state for a period of time and contributed towards its welfare system.

    Free education and healthcare should be available to all regardless.

    Please adopt the numbered position above which matches your own the closest, before defining your own in more detail.

    Mine is just an example.
     
    roman likes this.
  5. tuga

    tuga European

    [​IMG]

    Pick a colour:

    [​IMG]
     
    roman likes this.
  6. SteveS1

    SteveS1 I heard that, pardon?

    Drood, I can't see where a better deal for NI than the rest of the UK gets is ever going to fly - can you?

    I suspect a Johnson, or rather Cummings ruse in the hope they can slip the nation a crippler because everyone is so fatigued. Then the serious money making for their backers can begin. Oh sunny uplands. Just hope enough of Parliament is still awake.
     
  7. Bananahead

    Bananahead pfm Member

    Nine

    Or Ten.
     
    najb, Snufkin and Steven Toy like this.
  8. matt j

    matt j pfm Member

    Brexit has become this beast that has taken over some people's lives, all they seem to do is spend all day either listening/reading about it or arguing with other people about it on the internet.

    Every bloody day either Norman Smith or Kuenssberg report something as being "unprecedented" and how nobody knows what will happen, and every day is just like the last where it makes not a bit of bloody difference. They should just give it up as a bad job and say they're scrapping the referendum result as they're too incompetent to sort it out.
     
  9. Sue Pertwee-Tyr

    Sue Pertwee-Tyr pfm Member

    I too aspire to 9, albeit with significant doubts about the Euro. I'm even supportive of an EU army, something Brexitiers seem to find horrific for unexplained reasons.

    But, given where we are, I'd be prepared to accomodate Leavers as far down the line as a 4 if that's what it took. I'd have significant reservations about this, or any future, government honouring the spirit of that though, so in reality would draw the line at 5. I'd prefer 7 (EFTA), or better EEA (which you don't list), and again the problem with 6 is the potential duplicity of future UK governments. We've shown our true colours during this, well the Tories have anyway, so I doubt if the EU would be too keen on making bespoke arrangements due to our propensity for chipping away at their edges and possibly fracturing it.
     
  10. Tony L

    Tony L Administrator

    I still can’t see how any Brexit that involves leaving the Customs Union can possibly be compatible with the GFA. They are just mutually exclusive.

    PS The most terrifying thing is it looks like 19 Labour MPs are going to vote for this disastrous Johnson idiocy.
     
    stephen bennett and Covkxw like this.
  11. Snufkin

    Snufkin pfm Member

    Wolfmancatsup, myles and Steven Toy like this.
  12. Nick_G

    Nick_G pfm Member

    Ideally 9 but similar to Sue Pertwee-Tyr, although I'd go down to 5. Otherwise it's throwing the GFA under the Brexit bus with all the old wounds being reopened again.
     
  13. Tony L

    Tony L Administrator

    Option ‘8’ for me. Just revoke A50 and remain on current terms as it is abundantly clear that in over three years since the idiotic Tory referendum no one on the Brexit side has managed to come up with any strategy that doesn’t make us hugely worse off from every single perspective. The whole thing is pure idiocy, in no other walk of life would one follow an optional trajectory despite simply overwhelming evidence it was a terrible idea and entirely unworkable.

    PS I chose ‘8’ as whilst I very much like the overall EU concept I’m yet to be convinced by the Eurozone. The idea is good, but it just doesn’t seem to work properly at this stage in its history and some independent methods of controlling currency are clearly of great use.
     
    andrewd and roman like this.
  14. Colin Barron

    Colin Barron pfm Member

    Bercow, his wife and family will receive EU jobs as rewards for services rendered by a grateful federal Europe. Swinson will be part of BJs blame game for not achieving Brexit.
     
  15. Nick_G

    Nick_G pfm Member

    Oooh dear. Just got a really nasty whiff of rotting kipper.



    Ah. That's better. It's gone now.
     
  16. Steven Toy

    Steven Toy L3 Toy

    I should have said EFTA/EEA as the overlap is huge.

    EEA is the single market. EFTA is a formal institution with its own court.

    I'd support a European* army as it would basically be NATO minus Trump's USA.

    *I say European and not EU because it should be left open to any European state to join it not just EU member states. We would have to be very careful with the likes of Ukraine, of course and Russia would be off-limits for obvious reasons.

    I agree with your points re. 6. It could only work of Parliament was truly sovereign and we dropped the stupid First Past the Post electoral system.
     
  17. slavedata

    slavedata pfm Member

    I'll stick to 8
     
  18. awkwardbydesign

    awkwardbydesign Officially Awesome

    My position is none of the above, which just goes to show the danger of anyone assuming they understand another's reasons for voting one way or the other. Of which there is rather a lot!
    Considering that union is the ideal of Germany and France. two countries who's leaders have tried to conquer Europe in the last 230 years*, perhaps it's the elephant in the room?
    * And counting.
     
  19. Cesare

    Cesare pfm Member

    8 for me. If we do leave, i'm likely to as well, and I really don't think i'm unusual in that. Will the country miss me? I don't expect it will, but it's the first time in my nearly 50 years that i've felt that there is anywhere else in the world i'd rather live.
     
    Nic Robinson likes this.
  20. roman

    roman pfm Member

    8 for me. We already have considerable influence but this appears to be misunderstood.

    I have doubts about the Euro hence my reluctance for 9. I'm ambivalent but curious about a European army. Our armed forces are in tatters and some of our military involvement highly questionable.

    I think we need to know more about what it might entail but fail to see what there is to fear about an army to which we belong.

    I should add that 9 might really be rubbing leavers noses in it somewhat. The temperature is high enough already.
     
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