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Ukraine V

It is about principles. You cannot use nuclear as attack weapon, world cannot allow itself precedent. Then there is no way to stop from using it anybody else who may still look at it as restrainer weapon.
 
If Russia does, then China, India, Pakistan, North Korea. They all have conflicts at their border. Israel will not stand by if Iran will have.
 
Craig B said:
I was just taking the piss, Richard.
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There is another way they could have dome this remotely. There are a number of 'robot's' designed to run down the inside of pipelines for inspection purposes - I guess there would be no reason why one couldn't be made with enough battery power...............

Regards

Richard
 
Richard Lines said:
There is another way they could have dome this remotely. There are a number of 'robot's' designed to run down the inside of pipelines for inspection purposes - I guess there would be no reason why one couldn't be made with enough battery power...............

Regards

Richard
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The simplest way is to fit demolition charges on the inside when the pipes are laid and only allow Russian engineers to run inspections.

It wouldn't surprise me that the Russians have been expecting a need to cut supplies w/out damaging the long-term viability of their gas fields.
 
Alex S said:
Sure. So if Russia does, you’re happy for the world to end?
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I don't believe the west would retaliate with nuclear weapons. Instead, opting for a highly targeted and strategic cyber warfare 'blitz' in-conjunction with unleashing an over whelming amount of more conventional weaponry
 
Seeker_UK said:
You did see my use of the word "bogus" in relation to the results, didn't you? :)

My point is that even if the rest of the World see the elections as illegitimate, Russia believes it has set the scene to justify threatening to behave as if it was defending home turf. That carries a stronger threat of a nuclear response and they are hoping that has an effect of putting in check Ukrainian advances into those territories. Whether it works as a deterrent or emboldens Russian forces to go further, only rime will tell. The idea that these elections changes nothing is wrong, IMHO.
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I doubt that will deter the Ukrainians, and they'll just be careful about how the continue. IF Putin deploys a 'battlefield' nuke against them I suspect support for them will get *stronger* from those countries who are giving Ukraine training, arms, etc. And almost certainly will lose Putin the support of countries that currently aren't supporting Ukraine. Also, I suspect the idea of nuking what you insist *is* 'Russia' may give many Russians some anxiety. Who's next?...

The snag, of course, is that Putin can't have a reverse gear because he has the usual dilemma of a Tyrant. And failure is a sign of weakness, and thus increased the risk of him being deposed (of) by his own hangers-on.
 
Alex S said:
Sure. So if Russia does, you’re happy for the world to end?
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The problem is that making NO response enables such an 'end' in stages as others feel they can get away with it, and every nation decides it must have nukes. So results in a cascade to disaster anyway.
 
Gingerbeard said:
I don't believe the west would retaliate with nuclear weapons. Instead, opting for a highly targeted and strategic cyber warfare 'blitz' in-conjunction with unleashing an over whelming amount of more conventional weaponry
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I think the most likely change would be a strong uptick in the 'support' provided by the USA and others. Putin using nukes simply on the basis of claiming it is "Russia" isn't a tolerable precident for anyone. India vs Pakistan, etc, would all find it a worry for example. And many other nations would decide "we need our own nukes asap".
 
Apparently the tactical nukes have a range of 300 miles and are currently much further away. It’s been suggested that as soon as they start to move they would be target with precision missiles by NATO. Also suggested was this has been privately communicated to Russsia, putting meat on the ‘ catastrophic consequences’ Biden recently mentioned. Tricky.
 
Jim Audiomisc said:
I doubt that will deter the Ukrainians, and they'll just be careful about how the continue. IF Putin deploys a 'battlefield' nuke against them I suspect support for them will get *stronger* from those countries who are giving Ukraine training, arms, etc. And almost certainly will lose Putin the support of countries that currently aren't supporting Ukraine. Also, I suspect the idea of nuking what you insist *is* 'Russia' may give many Russians some anxiety. Who's next?...

The snag, of course, is that Putin can't have a reverse gear because he has the usual dilemma of a Tyrant. And failure is a sign of weakness, and thus increased the risk of him being deposed (of) by his own hangers-on.
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"deposed (of)", I like that.

Here's hoping for a false flag mini people's revolt, with the unknown insurgents storming the broom closet that appears to be Putin's bunker office.
 
Gingerbeard said:
I don't believe the west would retaliate with nuclear weapons. Instead, opting for a highly targeted and strategic cyber warfare 'blitz' in-conjunction with unleashing an over whelming amount of more conventional weaponry
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Agreed. And then the unnerving question is what would the deranged Putin then do? Hopefully, USA with overt threats and China with covert threats can put an end to this soon.
 
Alex S said:
We can pontificate as much as we like. Zelenskyy understands the ethnicity of various regions, the true level of real Western support in war and in peace, the deaths of his people relative to where his borders are or should be. Its his call. I suspect that whatever you and I think, the West will not contemplate Armageddon for the sake of Ukraine. In that sense Russia, however evil Putin may be, is not as dumb as people make out.

As I said before, China is best placed to stop this but will they?
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This is what Medvedev stated- the West won’t risk nuclear incineration over Ukraine. The problem if they back down, is that Putin demonstrates once again that threats get him what he wants. Does he stop at the theft if 20% of Ukraine while bombing the rest of it into the stone age or does he move onto the minnows who didn’t heed his call to get NATO out of their territory- the Baltics, Balkans etc? It’s a tricky one.
 
Jim Audiomisc said:
Also, I suspect the idea of nuking what you insist *is* 'Russia' may give many Russians some anxiety. Who's next?
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Putin may consider Ukraine part of Russia, but that hasn't stopped him razing parts of it to the ground and killing off a lot of nazis / not true Russians to make it part of Russia again. No issues or anxiety to date on that. The only thing causing anxiety is the prospect of spending Christmas 2022 up to the neck in mud, blood and excrement with no food and dodgy equipment and a very motivated and trained opponent wanting you dead.
 
Alex S said:
Agreed. And then the unnerving question is what would the deranged Putin then do? Hopefully, USA with overt threats and China with covert threats can put an end to this soon.
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I suspect however this is sorted out it will be behind closed doors and we won't know exactly what was agreed for a long time. There's always a deal done at some point and everyone involved needs to be able to save face.
 
Craig B said:
"deposed (of)", I like that.

Here's hoping for a false flag mini people's revolt, with the unknown insurgents storming the broom closet that appears to be Putin's bunker office.
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The weakness they're adding at present is the conscription. Likely to generate a *lot* of resentment and poorer coherence of their forces. Not to say more officiers shot... in the back... whilst 'advancing'.
 
Jim Audiomisc said:
It is possible to send drone 'moles' along the inside of a pipeline... The routine use is for checking them, though, not making big holes.
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I know nothing about pipelines, but can you do that when the pipeline is full of pressurized (and presumably liquid) gas?

I was also wondering how come there are such huge gas bubbles above the leaks (as filmed by the Danish air force and navy, hours after the detonations): the surface turbulence is between 0.2 and 1 km wide. We were told that NS1 had been turned off for various reasons (maintenance, then unpaid bills, etc.) so would assume it was well and truly turned off at the source in Russia. We were told NS2 had not been put into service, so it was presumably all charged with gas and ready to go, but there was no flow. How come these 2 PL are still leaking gas into the Baltic, hours or maybe even days after the explosions? Have the Russians resumed pumping without telling anybody?
 
Jim Audiomisc said:
The weakness they're adding at present is the conscription. Likely to generate a *lot* of resentment and poorer coherence of their forces. Not to say more officiers shot... in the back... whilst 'advancing'.
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Does the Russian army still have the equivalent of the WW2-era Commisar with the Nagant ready for those not demonstrating resolve in front of the enemy?
 
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