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Ukraine V

mykel said:
On Russian propaganda


@DimitryZ - How accurate do you find this?
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Well, it's methodologically correct. That's what our friends Vladimir and Natasha, who live in St. Petersburg say. I posted a Russian language commentary (with subtitles) by a popular analyst that described much the same process. Russian propagandists also have a real nack for getting ostensibly well-meaning western figures to re-broadcast their many assertions.

I can re-tell of recent events that they are probably involved in. There is meme that has entered information space which rumors that "Ukranians are selling Western arms to the highest bidder." Now, hard right Congresspeople are demanding secret briefings, casting aspersions on those around Zelensky and advocating for stopping support.

Pro-Ukranian American analysts want accountability, while Ukranians say that's it impossible to sell HIMARS. But where is the exact accounting of every Stinger and Javelin? And is any of this related to Zelensky suddenly firing two close officials?

Here it is in UK press:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/ukraine-criminals-selling-american-missiles-27148809

And in US press:
https://www.newsweek.com/misleading...ggling-propaganda-newsweek-fact-check-1725107

And perhaps unwitting helper:
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/jul/12/ukraine-born-rep-victoria-spartz-intensifies-row-w/

Where did all of this come from? I wouldn't be surprised...
 
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DimitryZ said:
Pro-Ukranian American analysts want accountability, while Ukranians say that's it impossible to sell HIMARS. But where is the exact accounting of every Stinger and Javelin? And is any of this related to Zelensky suddenly firing two close officials?
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I don't disagree with your points otherwise but Stinger is like 40 years old, they already stopped making it, and there are better systems available anyway so no-one would care, except Ukraine who need all they can get.
Javelin while definitely not outdated, is not exactly uniquely powerful either. It's also some 25 years old by now, so the same kind of applies here, I think the US does not really care but the Ukrainian army would rather be using them than selling them.

As for HIMARS and other advanced systems, once you actually field them you have to count on some of them falling into the wrong hands. That is simply the reality of a battlefield. So while selling would be stupid for Ukraine, it's really equally stupid for some US congress representatives to somehow act as if that's what has to happen for fielded weapons systems to fall into Russian hands. That can just happen anyway, just like we have seen high-tech Russian systems captured by Ukranians and likely made available for the US. You win some and you lose some on this front and that's just how war is.

However I would not at all be surprised if the Russian propaganda machine is fueling these rumours and some people in congress are taking the opportunity to use the rumours for partisan political purposes.
 
Chefren said:
I don't disagree with your points otherwise but Stinger is like 40 years old, they already stopped making it, and there are better systems available anyway so no-one would care, except Ukraine who need all they can get.
Javelin while definitely not outdated, is not exactly uniquely powerful either. It's also some 25 years old by now, so the same kind of applies here, I think the US does not really care but the Ukrainian army would rather be using them than selling them.

As for HIMARS and other advanced systems, once you actually field them you have to count on some of them falling into the wrong hands. That is simply the reality of a battlefield. So while selling would be stupid for Ukraine, it's really equally stupid for some US congress representatives to somehow act as if that's what has to happen for fielded weapons systems to fall into Russian hands. That can just happen anyway, just like we have seen high-tech Russian systems captured by Ukranians and likely made available for the US. You win some and you lose some on this front and that's just how war is.

However I would not at all be surprised if the Russian propaganda machine is fueling these rumours and some people in congress are taking the opportunity to use the rumours for partisan political purposes.
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I think Stinger is still considered a dangerous weapon in the hands of terrorist - one Stinger, one passenger plane.

Here is another good example of Russian propaganda - an interview with one of Russia's top political scientist:

Why Russia Believes It Cannot Lose the War in Ukraine https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/...L9Jgoieqf9hLYQDm9uJeS5FkKg5H_dTXYTCkq4taUKukM
 
DimitryZ said:
I think Stinger is still considered a dangerous weapon in the hands of terrorist - one Stinger, one passenger plane.
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If used as an ambush weapon, even the best fast jet pilot may struggle to deploy countermeasures in enough time.
 
For anyone with access to the New York Times, this interview of a prominent member of the Russian intelligentsia (although I wonder about that), Sergey Karaganov, the academic director of the faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics and honorary chairman of Russia’s premier nongovernmental think tank, by an NYT board member and former Moscow correspondent makes fascinating reading. It is entitled "Why Russia believes it will win in Ukraine":

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/opinion/russia-ukraine-karaganov-interview.html

This gentleman lives in a totally different universe; in fact, the language seems to reflect an almost Trumpian worldview. Some excerpts:

The belligerence against Russia has been rapidly growing since the late 2000s. The conflict was seen as more and more imminent. So probably Moscow decided to pre-empt and to dictate the terms of the conflict.

This conflict is existential for most modern Western elites, who are failing and losing the trust of their populations. To divert attention they need an enemy. But most Western countries, not their presently ruling elites, will perfectly survive and thrive even when this liberal globalist imperialism imposed since late 1980s will vanish.

This conflict is not about Ukraine. Her citizens are used as cannon fodder in a war to preserve the failing supremacy of Western elites.

Taking into consideration the vector of its political, economic and moral development, the further we are from the West, the better it is for us. At least for the coming decade or two. Hopefully, afterward it will recuperate, the elites will partially be changed, and we shall normalize relations. We are not going to insulate ourselves suicidally from the rest of the world, which is developing largely in the right direction and is becoming larger and freer, while the West is rapidly shrinking. Only history could judge whether the decision to unleash an open confrontation was right. Maybe the decision should have been made earlier. And Covid postponed it.

... The minimum is the liberation from the Kievan regime of Donbas, which is in its final stages, and then of southern and eastern Ukraine. Then, Russia’s aim should probably be that the territory left under Kievan control will be neutral and fully demilitarized.

Ukraine is an important but small part of the engulfing process of the collapse of the former world order of global liberal imperialism imposed by the United States and movement toward a much fairer and freer world of multipolarity and multiplicity of civilizations and cultures. One of the centers of this world will be created in Eurasia, with the revived great civilizations that had been suppressed for several hundred years. Russia will be playing its natural role of civilization of civilizations. Russia should also be playing the role of the northern balancer of this system. I hope we shall be able to play this double role. We are proud heirs of a great culture created by Pushkin, Tolstoy, Gogol. He [Gogol] was coming from the lands that are now Ukraine, and formed our love for these lands. We are heirs of unbeatable warriors, like A. Suvorov, and marshals Zhukov and Rokossovsky. This world order is still over the horizon. But I am working to bring it closer.
 
tones said:
For anyone with access to the New York Times, this interview of a prominent member of the Russian intelligentsia (although I wonder about that), Sergey Karaganov, the academic director of the faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics and honorary chairman of Russia’s premier nongovernmental think tank, by an NYT board member and former Moscow correspondent makes fascinating reading. It is entitled "Why Russia believes it will win in Ukraine":

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/opinion/russia-ukraine-karaganov-interview.html

This gentleman lives in a totally different universe; in fact, the language seems to reflect an almost Trumpian worldview. Some excerpts:

The belligerence against Russia has been rapidly growing since the late 2000s. The conflict was seen as more and more imminent. So probably Moscow decided to pre-empt and to dictate the terms of the conflict.

This conflict is existential for most modern Western elites, who are failing and losing the trust of their populations. To divert attention they need an enemy. But most Western countries, not their presently ruling elites, will perfectly survive and thrive even when this liberal globalist imperialism imposed since late 1980s will vanish.

This conflict is not about Ukraine. Her citizens are used as cannon fodder in a war to preserve the failing supremacy of Western elites.

Taking into consideration the vector of its political, economic and moral development, the further we are from the West, the better it is for us. At least for the coming decade or two. Hopefully, afterward it will recuperate, the elites will partially be changed, and we shall normalize relations. We are not going to insulate ourselves suicidally from the rest of the world, which is developing largely in the right direction and is becoming larger and freer, while the West is rapidly shrinking. Only history could judge whether the decision to unleash an open confrontation was right. Maybe the decision should have been made earlier. And Covid postponed it.

... The minimum is the liberation from the Kievan regime of Donbas, which is in its final stages, and then of southern and eastern Ukraine. Then, Russia’s aim should probably be that the territory left under Kievan control will be neutral and fully demilitarized.

Ukraine is an important but small part of the engulfing process of the collapse of the former world order of global liberal imperialism imposed by the United States and movement toward a much fairer and freer world of multipolarity and multiplicity of civilizations and cultures. One of the centers of this world will be created in Eurasia, with the revived great civilizations that had been suppressed for several hundred years. Russia will be playing its natural role of civilization of civilizations. Russia should also be playing the role of the northern balancer of this system. I hope we shall be able to play this double role. We are proud heirs of a great culture created by Pushkin, Tolstoy, Gogol. He [Gogol] was coming from the lands that are now Ukraine, and formed our love for these lands. We are heirs of unbeatable warriors, like A. Suvorov, and marshals Zhukov and Rokossovsky. This world order is still over the horizon. But I am working to bring it closer.
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I posted a gift version link of this article above for those without subscription to NYT.

Invoking Ukrainian-born Gogol as one who formed "Russian love for 'these lands' " is, honestly, an exquisitely grotesque touch.

Russia today seems more and more like a historical farce, an attempt at the repeat of the Soviet Union as a macabre and idea-less circus.
 
tones said:
The belligerence against Russia has been rapidly growing since the late 2000s. The conflict was seen as more and more imminent. So probably Moscow decided to pre-empt and to dictate the terms of the conflict. ...

(snip rambles)
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Curious, then, that Putin claimed it was a "Limited police action"...
 
DimitryZ said:
I posted a gift version link of this article above for those without subscription to NYT.

Invoking Ukrainian-born Gogol as one who formed "Russian love for 'these lands' " is, honestly, an exquisitely grotesque touch.

Russia today seems more and more like a historical farce, an attempt at the repeat of the Soviet Union as a macabre and idea-less circus.
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To me, the interview seemed to echo a number of things:

(1) A touch of the old Soviet Union;
(2) The Russian historic fear of invasion, hence the discomfort of losing the buffer of satellite states, and, worse, their becoming NATO members;
(3) A desire for a "sphere of influence" out of which others should stay, a sort of Russian version of the US's old Monroe Doctrine;
(4) A feeling that Russia deserves the respect due to a Great Power.

One thing's for sure - the number of times he speaks of "the West" makes you realise that Russia sees itself as not part of the West, but separate from it, a different political/cultural pole, and that it was a mistake ever to think of it as a "Western" country. There's a certain irony here, as it was Putin's hero, Peter the Great, who saw the opposite, and who violently wrenched Russia from East to West, forcing Western dress, manners, culture, etc. on Russia. The patient never completely recovered from the operation.

The classic adage is "know your enemy". Hopefully, this will have a wide readership and more people will realise what we're up against.
 
tones said:
To me, the interview seemed to echo a number of things:

(1) A touch of the old Soviet Union;
(2) The Russian historic fear of invasion, hence the discomfort of losing the buffer of satellite states, and, worse, their becoming NATO members;
(3) A desire for a "sphere of influence" out of which others should stay, a sort of Russian version of the US's old Monroe Doctrine;
(4) A feeling that Russia deserves the respect due to a Great Power.

One thing's for sure - the number of times he speaks of "the West" makes you realise that Russia sees itself as not part of the West, but separate from it, a different political/cultural pole, and that it was a mistake ever to think of it as a "Western" country. There's a certain irony here, as it was Putin's hero, Peter the Great, who saw the opposite, and who violently wrenched Russia from East to West, forcing Western dress, manners, culture, etc. on Russia. The patient never completely recovered from the operation.

The classic adage is "know your enemy". Hopefully, this will have a wide readership and more people will realise what we're up against.
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Well, can Russia decide who/what it is WITHIN IT'S CURRENT BORDERS, before trying to annex several parts of other countries?

I was born there and I am part of the Russian culture. And even I am deadly tired of centuries long Russian navel gazing that periodically evolves into world-threatening entities - USSR and PuSSR.

Vladimir Vexler has a strange English accent for someone who was a born in USSR. He must have emigrated very young - or worked very hard to loose it.
 
Spraggons Den said:
Yes, flares continue to be the major defence against infrared missiles.
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Especially while a lot of SAMs are older IR seeker (no pun intended) technology.

However, flares do not present the same UV signature as a jet so are less effective against modern systems that use IR / UV or semi-autonomous operator guided systems.
 
So now Russia and Ukraine are making trade deals..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62254597

I work for a company making medical equipment. We are still supplying to Russian hospitals, and I strongly believe that's the right thing to do.

Allowing grain to move also seems the right thing to do.

But WTF is happening here....invasion/war... with deals on the side...?!
 
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Bart said:
Who’s grain is it anyway i.e. who gets the money?
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Grain is Ukranian, obviously. A lot of it has already been stolen by Russia (along with everything else).

My understanding that a lot of it are from previously executed contracts Ukraine has with many wheat importing countries.
 
DimitryZ said:
Grain is Ukranian, obviously. A lot of it has already been stolen by Russia (along with everything else).

My understanding that a lot of it are from previously executed contracts Ukraine has with many wheat importing countries.
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I am speculating about the details of the deal though and what Russia is getting (apart from the gratitude of African and other countries]. It seems unlikely that they would agree to cooperate in moving the grain out of the kindness of their hearts or to help Ukraine satisfy its contracts. Is Putin finally realising that perhaps being a pariah is not all it’s cracked up to be (very unlikely).
 
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