Ukraine V
- Thread starter DimitryZ
- Start date
ks.234
Half way to Infinity
You are right that there has been joint projects in, for example shipbuilding and the IMF has made loans of $ billions, but to say in shouty caps that those things have failed to prevent an invasion presumes that peace was the objective. It wasn’t.
I have mentioned Yegor Gaidar’s economic shock therapy before, this took loans and other investments but the price was massive privatisation, deregulation and spending cuts. The result was a massive increase in the super rich at the expense of the health, wealth and life expectancy of the poor. Alcoholism has risen and the average man is not expected to live beyond 60. In addition the number of Russia’s who consider themselves middle class has fallen. (Not that it was ever very high)
If a trans geographic economic solution that requires intergovernmental cooperation, something like the Moscow Berlin railway, cannot be found, then there are other options such as (maybe, if environmental conditions exist) setting up Green Energy industries in Ukraine with intergovernmental input and the output shared. I recognise that a big problem might be that Putin might see this as a threat to his existing oil and gas exports but it could be linked with say, food exports, which Russia is still reliant upon.
The difference this time is that economic negotiations could be part of a more stable settlement if and when that becomes possible.
I totally agree that Putin will have to be pushed to negotiation, and that push will necessarily be military, but that military offensive will not be successful on its own even if it manages to push Putin back to pre invasion borders.
If Putin is pushed back, there will still be an economic cost to keeping him back. A purely military solution would likely require a DMZ which would need defending and an ongoing military presence which Ukraine would ultimately have to pay for.
The cost of maintaining a hostile border would be economically inefficient and drain funds away to the borders for a country that will need a lot of internal rebuilding if peace is ever reached.
That rebuilding could be an opportunity. You can be sure that the proponents of privatisation, deregulatory and public spending cuts are eyeing up potential opportunities for their own competitive needs. They might rush in with their own developers, their own advisors, planners and builders and build lots of nice hotels and office blocks with just enough social housing to avoid too much overt criticism, but what is needed in and by Ukraine is careful local planning for local needs with an emphasis on creating economic investment that utilises full employment for Ukrainians, using (where possible) Ukrainian construction, and directed according to the needs of local people.
The bottom line is that there are no easy solutions, but the gung ho, militaristic
muscle flexing, on it’s own, will not IMHO achieve the strategic or the economic stability that Ukraine will need.
ks.234
Half way to Infinity
Just noticed your edit, and have edited my own original too. I meant something “like” the Moscow to Berlin Railway. Apologies if that wasn’t clear.
anubisgrau
pfm Member
@DimitryZ
About the "counterproductive" sentence: if you analyze political agreements, they's seldomly 100% satisfying for both sides. My proposal is something to halt the war and start talking. First of all, the talks should be between Ukraine and Russia, not with western partners on behalf of Ukraine behind closed doors as it is most likely now. They should mediate but Ukraine has to make decisions otherwise there will be always someone guilty for accepting something. Even once the peace deal is signed, no side will be happy 100%. Maybe Ukraine will think that the fact that a drunken Soviet politician signed Russian province to Ukraine in the 50s has to be respected forever, or maybe Russians will believe that they are just 1 or 2 days from taking Kyev.
Unfortunately this will take very very long time. In comparison, Kosovo war took 78 days, it was a way less hostile and destructive, about 1,000 dead or missing in total, not a single village or town flattened - and it took 23 years to come to some kind of agreement on normalization. It's happening right now, no one fully happy, both sides moaning and groaning but luckily moving step by step to a civilized outcome. Under a huge pressure of EU and US, yes, so that's why someone from the west should keep a distance from war mongering madness and retain at least some credibility for Russians. I'm afraid with Leopards episode we lost Germans for that but let's see what's gonna realistically happen.
About the "counterproductive" sentence: if you analyze political agreements, they's seldomly 100% satisfying for both sides. My proposal is something to halt the war and start talking. First of all, the talks should be between Ukraine and Russia, not with western partners on behalf of Ukraine behind closed doors as it is most likely now. They should mediate but Ukraine has to make decisions otherwise there will be always someone guilty for accepting something. Even once the peace deal is signed, no side will be happy 100%. Maybe Ukraine will think that the fact that a drunken Soviet politician signed Russian province to Ukraine in the 50s has to be respected forever, or maybe Russians will believe that they are just 1 or 2 days from taking Kyev.
Unfortunately this will take very very long time. In comparison, Kosovo war took 78 days, it was a way less hostile and destructive, about 1,000 dead or missing in total, not a single village or town flattened - and it took 23 years to come to some kind of agreement on normalization. It's happening right now, no one fully happy, both sides moaning and groaning but luckily moving step by step to a civilized outcome. Under a huge pressure of EU and US, yes, so that's why someone from the west should keep a distance from war mongering madness and retain at least some credibility for Russians. I'm afraid with Leopards episode we lost Germans for that but let's see what's gonna realistically happen.
Chefren
pfm Member
The Russians will in general treat international agreements literally, so if you only say "war crimes tribunal" they might find Zelensky guilty in a tribunal in Moscow before the week is over.
Bart
pfm Member
Of course, everybody not on their side would be as guilty as sin. We all know the way white becomes black and vice-versa in their world. (Just to clarify it was someone else who used the term and I am referring to a fair and unbiased tribunal on neutral ground if such a thing exists).
Not sure that makes the case tbh - "Overall, the data from these secret Kremlin polls suggests that people remain more or less loyal to the authorities." And there are currently no mass riots/demonstrations/outbreaks of significant public disobedience - and Putin is still in power.
sean99
pfm Member
I just read it quickly but my overall takeaway was that the decision to request a negotiated peace should be made by Ukraine alone. I’ve felt this way all along. So long as Ukrainians desire fighting over negotiations we should supply them accordingly.
The South was becoming quite an effective fighting force near the end of the war, only to be abandoned by the US. Let's hope history does not repeat itself.
davidsrsb
pfm Member
Many countries want Bush and Blair up first. After them a long queue
Sue Pertwee-Tyr
Accuphase all the way down
It seems to have repeated itself in Afghanistan, so I fear we can't hope it won't.
tones
Tones deaf
The problem, as I see it, is that Putin has staked everything. He simply can't afford to lose, or be seen to lose. Now, to a certain extent, as he totally dominates the Russian media, he can define "winning" any way he wants, for example, the holding of the territory he already has, He can say that this was his intention all along, and he has succeeded, and that all the other death and destruction was only to put Ukraine in its place, to ensure that he keeps his ill-gotten gains. The Russian media will conveniently forget anything about Ukraine being a part of Russia and needing to be deNazified. Meaning that he will pour more and more men and machines into the mincing machine, without thought for any longer-term consequences. Can the West stay the course in the face of such single-minded determination? I hope so.
Sue Pertwee-Tyr
Accuphase all the way down
We have to. It's as much an existential threat to us if we don't, as it is to Putin. If the West loses interest and pulls back, Russia then knows it can win any war of attrition it chooses to pick. My guess would be that it might even embolden him as to NATO members, or prospective NATO members (in particular, Finland and Latvia) as he could, with some justification, persuade himself that NATO would always blink first.
DimitryZ
pfm Member
Your plan seems fine once the hostilities are greatly slowing down, Ukraine territory is at least close to the 2022 LoC and combatants are getting ready to stop fighting, at least for a while.
My interest is to find ANY alternatives to the continuation of the current bloody war of attrition to push Putin's forces further toward his own borders and convince him to give up his current "winnings."
I don't think that sencere promises of smart and fair economic development for both sides will convince Putin to step back.
DimitryZ
pfm Member
Well, you still have not suggested anything that would convince Putin to stop continuing to attack Ukraine in the here and the now. This, after all, is a culmination of a long prepared plan of his to take over a big chunk of Europe. To him, this is just very unfair - to have two very successful steps (2008 and 2014) and then to stumble so badly on the third.
Any REAL alternatives to the current course of action from the West? Less weapons, more weapons? Some diplomatic direction that so far has eluded everyone? A bold initiative through the UN?
And no, we aren't sending NATO troops.
dave charlton
pfm member
It's military strategy with help from the west that hopefully will win out for Ukraine.
mykel
Perpetual Hack.
Even their own are not safe. Wonder if this will change her opinion?
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1620333993341353984
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1620333993341353984
ks.234
Half way to Infinity
Yes, agree 100%. What is it we’re disagreeing about?
DimitryZ
pfm Member
Lack or existence of alternatives. I am still waiting for any suggestions. Should we lobby our governments for continuation of the current course of action or for changes going into the future?