Russian national security documents reveal that Putin understood years ago that climate change and geopolitical disruptions would lead to radical changes in energy and commodity markets, therefore requiring Russia to diversify its economy.
On energy, two fundamental aspects defined the Russian outlook. One is that hydrocarbons would remain fundamental to the world’s economy and the biggest demand would emanate from Asia. Russia therefore needed to pivot efforts in the direction of new markets and partnerships.
The second is that Russia understood European efforts to move toward a renewable-based energy mix that relies on critical raw materials such as rare earths. Russia is rich in many such materials. Not just that: modern day Russia aims to recover the Soviet-era industrial and export power in terms of critical materials.
In Putin’s mind, recovering this ability is key to ensuring that Russia is able to tilt the global balance of power in its favor, compete with China, and undermine the transatlantic relationship.
In fact, the economic diversification strategy, the critical raw materials strategy, the national security one and the regional strategies all link back to a specific aim: enhancing Russian military and defense position, and ensuring geoeconomic relevance.
Russia’s aim requires three things: developing its industrial base at home; eyeing resource-rich countries which it can either control or cooperate closely with on its own terms; and creating partnerships with countries across the world that own resources complementary to those Russia can directly control.
Brazil, for example, falls into the latter basket, while Kazakhstan and the Arctic fall into the former.
Where does Ukraine fit in all this?
With an estimated mineral wealth of over €6.7 trillion ($7 trillion), Ukraine had struck a strategic partnership on raw materials with the EU in July 2021 to develop and diversify supply chains for critical materials.
The only other country the EU had turned to for such a partnership is Canada. That partnership was designed to support the EU’s decarbonization and deepen ties between the EU and Ukraine. Since a number of Ukraine’s minerals are located in the eastern part of the country, which Russia now occupies, the future of the partnership is unclear.
What is clear, however, is Russia’s intention to gain access to the resources that the EU needs in order to deliver on its climate law—a fundamental aspect of European social pacts under the Green Deal. The use of force and the instrumentalization of conflict and war are central to Russia’s strategy.
It is not only in Ukraine that such a pattern is observable. The Wagner Group—a mercenary company unofficially related to the Kremlin whose owner also directs extractive companies like Lobaye Invest—is now present in African countries with significant mineral resources, such as Mozambique, Madagascar, the Central African Republic, and Mali.
Even more strikingly, Russia is concluding more defense partnerships that include topographic and hydrological research, such as with Cameroon or Zimbabwe.
https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/87319
