The end of the UK(?)

[Ciunas Audio]

Religion doesn't come into it at all. It is about cultural identity.

Personally speaking I think it all depends on the compromises that all sides are asked to make. I believe the will for unification exists as strongly in the south as it ever did.

And do you not think religion is part of cultural identity? But let me expand my thought on this (I was going to add this in my previous post). Whether religion is at the core or religion is used as a useful prop or smoke screen for a certain ideological retention of power is what I really wanted to say. But whichever, it allows for the abandonment of logic in an disagreement which we see in the US

Only a very wide survey or referendum in the south would answer about the desire for Irish unity

 

[eternumviti]

Sorry, but the sole reason that so many people want to go to Britain is that you invaded their countries. Now they have a distant cousin in Britain and that's why they go there - and your language was imposed on them.

In France, you see the fellas from the French colonies.

Racially relaxed my !@#$%.

Leaving aside the widely troped but wide of the mark contention that recent immigration has been from former/English-speaking colonies (Poland, France, Romania, Bulgaria, Spain, Italy, Estonia, Latvia, Afghanistan, Somalia, Syria?), what country do you come from, Mr Lagavullin?

We should look on it not just as an ending but a new beginning. Old friends will remain old friends. A bright European future awaits us all.

Indeed, l'Europe des Patries, as de Gaulle might well have said in 1962.

Yes, there is indeed, but that’s not how the government has sold it, is it? They went large on the ‘beholden to no man’ rhetoric, while simultaneously cosying up to the US in a deal which, in its implications for foreign influence could make the CJEU’s output look a bit quaint.

I obviously can't comment, as unlike you I haven't seen the draft FTA between the US and the UK.

However, although I have many reservations, I doubt it.

We need basic rules of a free trade organisation that has low overheads.
We do not need an organisation that takes red bus loads of cash every week, that we do not control, and is heading for federal control.

And again, this doesn’t even engage with my point, let alone respond to it. We can’t have a sensible discussion if all you do is fly tip UKIP propaganda in response to any argument. It’s why people accuse you of being a bot.

I can't see what it is that what Colin said is at all contentious. If that is all that the UKIP proposed, I should have paid more attention to them. It seems like profound common sense.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

I obviously can't comment, as unlike you I haven't seen the draft FTA between the US and the UK.

However, although I have many reservations, I doubt it.





I can't see what it is that what Colin said is at all contentious. If that is all that the UKIP proposed, I should have paid more attention to them. It seems like profound common sense.

As I’m sure you realise, I haven’t seen it either, and am just going off the bits I’ve seen reported on, but things like the provisions which allowed US companies to sue UK regulators for damages were far beyond even the worst excesses of the CJEU.

You’ve missed the point of my complaints to Colin. He ignored what I said in a post, and instead in replying to it he did his usual dump of UKIP propaganda. I objected, and he did it again. Trying to engage with Colin is like trying to have a conversation with a speak your weight machine.

 

[eternumviti]

Well, in fairness, I'm probably not much different. Doubt sits large on my shoulder though, not least over the last 4 weeks. I wouldn't be here on this thread if it didn't.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Well, in fairness, I'm probably not much different. Doubt sits large on my shoulder though, not least over the last 4 weeks. I wouldn't be here on this thread if it didn't.

EV you are about the only pro-Brexit poster to these threads I still find it worth engaging with, so don’t run yourself down. And I find it heartening (and not entirely surprising) that you admit to some doubt. It’s the difference between you and the other hard liners who, if they are entertaining any second thoughts at all, prefer to conceal that in favour of trolling instead.

And for my part, I found the recent silliness over vaccines most unedifying on the part of the EU, and it allowed me a glimpse at the things you dislike, and I didn’t like it any more than you do. Our difference, I think, is that you define the EU by that attitude, where I view it as the exception.

 

[Sloop John B]

Ireland, much more complicated than Scotland.

Would people in the south vote for a united Ireland? I think a yes vote flows through our veins. I would like to believe that fingers in the greasy till adding the half pence to the pence would not gain much traction.

So I’d probably vote yes, but I’d also probably not wish to have a vote, at least for some time. Well until Sammy Wilson retires at least.

There’s no John Hume about currently alas and no David Trimble either.

And of course there’s the Irish people voting whose heritage is Eastern Europe, Africa or S. America. They may not fancy Arlene holding the balance of power in an all Ireland parliament.

forgive my ramblings, it’s a complex topic with a long and bloody history so whatever keeps peace is the option I’m for. I don’t think we’re ready for a border poll yet, but a citizen’s assembly looking at what a united or more united island might look like would be a good idea.
.sjb

 

[2ManyBoxes]

I just don't want a return to the Troubles. If you grew up in the 70s it was seemingly on every night that there was a bomb or a funeral or a shooting or a tar and feathering.

On and on and on for years and years.

I'd be very much surprised if Scotland was still part of the UK at the end of this decade. It's almost a given from my experience of Scots that it will happen.

 

[stephen bennett]

Radio 4's The Briefing Room podcast has a decent overview of the situation regarding NI.

Interestingly, according to the GFA, the Secretary of State makes the impartial decision that there must be a border poll and must allow it if the residents on NI wants one.

Then they must also not be involved in politicising it.

Can anyone really believe a Conservative SoS won't be biased?

Stephen

 

[Ibbots]

Uwantsum

 

[Ruairi]

I agree absolutely that there should be a citizen's assembly or some platform to begin looking at unification. We don't need a vote tomorrow but we do need to start looking at it and we need to remove the baton from Sinn Fein and make it an open platform.

 

[SteveG]

I agree absolutely that there should be a citizen's assembly or some platform to begin looking at unification. We don't need a vote tomorrow but we do need to start looking at it and we need to remove the baton from Sinn Fein and make it an open platform.

In one respect I like that idea as it makes it clear that it's a direct consequence of Brexit (i.e. another reminder of what a deeply stupid and ill-thought out idea it was), on the other hand I have concerns about the potential for renewed troubles, initiated from the loyalist side this time - especially given I have family in Belfast.

 

[tones]

From today's FT:

https://www.ft.com/content/bbf2a097-37ff-42ea-8b22-c5662f0ae4be

Summary:

Independence from the UK would cost Scotland’s economy up to three times as much in lost trade as Brexit will, according to analysis by the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance.
...
“Rejoining the EU following independence would do little to mitigate [the overall trade costs] and in the short run would probably lead to greater economic losses than maintaining a common economic market with the rest of the UK,” said Thomas Sampson, an associate professor of economics at LSE.

 

[SteveG]

I can't see the detail of that study to understand who commissioned it and what specifically they were being asked to do (always an important point to bear in mind when reviewing the results from any individual study) - however the numbers mentioned elsewhere in the press in terms of individual impact (and which we can reasonably assume are a worst case scenario given who's been spinning them in the press) aren't that high and would be cheap at twice the price. I suspect their premise is about as reliable as any other finger in the air number though.

 

[tones]

I can't see the detail of that study to understand who commissioned it and what specifically they were being asked to do (always an important point to bear in mind when reviewing the results from any individual study) - however the numbers mentioned elsewhere in the press in terms of individual impact (and which we can reasonably assume are a worst case scenario given who's been spinning them in the press) aren't that high and would be cheap at twice the price. I suspect their premise is about as reliable as any other finger in the air number though.

Voilà:

https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/abstract.asp?index=7714

but perhaps not the right one? This seems to have been written pre-Brexit.

 

[SteveS1]

Having made the case that the economics don't' matter or can be accepted if it just feels good to leave a larger body, it's very amusing to see such concern for the Scottish economy when they play that tune back to the authors. Conversely if isolation was a bad idea for the UK, it is also a bad idea for Scotland even accepting that some of that could be mitigated by immediate re-partnership elsewhere. These are two rotten ideas but the genie is out of the bottle.

Northern Ireland’s fragile equilibrium was maintained by a finely balanced concept that each party had its own position but all shared membership od customs and trade arrangements. Now the scales have tipped strongly in favour of Nationalists ironically because of the weights the DUP put on the wrong end of the see-saw. Getting behind Brexit as a mechanism to cement their Unionism has backfired badly, that was quite obvious when Johnson threw them under the bus for his own purposes.

There is now every chance they could lose it altogether. Another example (and there are many ranging from shellfish fishermen to musicians and agriculture) who vociferously backed leaving and are now facing the consequences.

 

[Jim Audiomisc]

Apologies if that was what you heard loud and clear north of the border, it certainly was not what was plugged south of it.

So, if that was the case then, it will be so at any future date. Which would make for a major PITA situation for an independent Scotland on numerous counts, not least currency and, with it, countless knock-on financial implications.
The whole scenario just smacks ever more of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

You have not commented on my point about Scots forcing Labour government onto English voters in years past. Sauce for the goose, sauce for the gander and all that?

Well, the key difference could be that Scotland leaving the NON-EU UK might not be seen as a 'precedent' for the Basques, say, leaving the EU Spain. So be more likely to be allowed into the EU. Particularly as - for a few years to come - EU countries may be a tad pi**ed off with the UK. Might please them to welcome an ex-part of it showing that he felt the UK leaving was barmy.

I don't disagree with your point about Scottish Labour MPs. Indeed, it seems to me another argument either for the UK to change, or for Scotland to become independent. Although as I think I've said before, it isn't the outcome I'd have wanted. I'd have simply preferred to remain in a UK in the EU, but to change from within some of the bad aspects of the EU. However we are where we are...

 

[Jim Audiomisc]

... Another example (and there are many ranging from shellfish fishermen to musicians and agriculture) who vociferously backed leaving and are now facing the consequences.

Plus of course, the wealthy Bexiteers who funded and argued for Brexit, threatening to leave if we didn't leave the EU... and who have now bu**ered off to spend more time with their money outwith the UK anyway!

 

[Vinny]

Plus of course, the wealthy Bexiteers who funded and argued for Brexit, threatening to leave if we didn't leave the EU... and who have now bu**ered off to spend more time with their money outwith the UK anyway!

Substantially more than somewhat irrelevant IMO.

I would also not put too much faith in your logic in/out UK v. in/out EU. It is as likely as not that Spain would regard allowing Scotland in as reward for the split.

I don't disagree with your point about Scottish Labour MPs.

It is not a question of disagreeing or not - it is indisputble fact, unless you are going to follow Trump and dispute long past election figures.

 

[Minio]

And of course there's Scotland

I'm just wondering if Nicola really wants to reduce her audience to a single percentage of her current level.

In the event of independence I can't see the BBC continuing to broadcast her every word to 63 million disinterested people.

We are quite near Belgium, for example. How many people here know who is in charge there?

I can see it going a bit flat for her.

 

[Ruairi]

In one respect I like that idea as it makes it clear that it's a direct consequence of Brexit (i.e. another reminder of what a deeply stupid and ill-thought out idea it was), on the other hand I have concerns about the potential for renewed troubles, initiated from the loyalist side this time - especially given I have family in Belfast.

Me too. The time the troubles erupted life was totally different. There will be civil disorder but it will fizzle out. Unionists won't have Bombay St, Ballymurphy or Bloody Sunday or Internment. They will be afforded the opportunity to have an input into a new state and they won't be discriminated against. There was no opportunity like that in the 60s or 70s. When people marched peacefully for civil rights look what happened. I live and have a young family in Belfast. I grew up in West Belfast in the 80s. The last thing I want is a return to those sorts of days but I firmly believe we will never again see the likes of that, in any Ireland. Those days are gone.