advertisement


The end of the UK(?)

tones

tones

Tones deaf
Is it? I've a particular interest in my particular sod (Ireland), where more and more articles are raising the possibility of reunification in this, the centenary of Partition. This appeared in the Financial Times today:

https://www.ft.com/content/b596905e-9878-433d-9516-181e2432e4ee

I like this quote:

But nationalism has a secret weapon: the Democratic Unionist party. The strategic judgments of the province’s largest party have been among the most consistently witless in recent politics. One Tory MP fumes: “The DUP have done more damage to the Union than the IRA, Sinn Féin and all the nationalist forces combined.”

And of course there's Scotland...

To me, no matter how appealing it seems to nationalists of all stripes, it all seems impractical. Scotland is a small country (5.5 million, only slightly bigger than Ireland's) and it has taken 72 years, plus EEC/EU membership, to bring Ireland from being a relatively poor country to its present status. Scotland would have to start from scratch at a time of falling oil prices, a wait for EU membership, unhappiness from Spain (which doesn't want the Catalans and Basques pulling the same stunt) and a hard border with its biggest trading partner. I do realise that it's hard to suffer the upper-class twit in Downing Street, but the alternative seems a lot worse.

With regard to Ireland, the two bits of the island have drifted apart since Partition, so that there are now substantial differences. The North floats on a sea of British taxpayers' money, which Ireland couldn't hope to match. Ireland also wants three-quarters of a million unwilling Unionists like it wants a hole in the head. However, with the distinct possibility of Michelle O'Neill becoming First Minister at the next Northern election and the Shinners being the biggest political party down south, the well-known human tendency to cut off nose to spite face might come to the fore.

While I would like to see Ireland reunited (and I'm a Northern Prod!) and I sympathise with Scottish aspirations, I can't see that either is practical. What think the Fishies?
 
I'm not sure all of the current unionist voters would be a problem in a re-unified Ireland. The antics of the UK government over the last 10 years or so have put a lot of us off. Speaking personally, also as a 'Northern Prod' my attachment to the UK is sentimental, and would almost certainly suffer irreversible damage upon the accession to the throne of the 'alternative medicine' believing Prince of Wales. Add to that a lot of unionists voted to remain in the EU, and there is also a strong vein of pragmatism with northern people, and the opposition to such a move may consist of the more swivel eyed in the DUP along with a rump of paramilitaries.
The secret to a smooth transition, in my opinion, would be to ensure the same mistakes are not made prior to any referendum that were made with Brexit. The cost/benefit analysis would need to be detailed, robust & independent as far as possible, and not just consist of a romantic ideal of a 'nation once again'.
The last couple of referendums (referenda?) in the RoI have shown how to do this correctly - convene a citizen's assembly to look at all the pros and cons as well as pitfalls etc, and then frame the question accordingly. This takes the matter out of the hands of politicians.
 
Most Scots nationalists seem to want to re-enter the EU, but they seem as totally deluded about what that would mean as the avergae Brexiteer was/is about Brexit. At the very simplest level, they would have to adopt the Euro as currency. They'd be less independant than they are now, only the whip hand would change from England to Brussels.

God save us all from nationalists, wherever in the world they be.
 
Vinny said:
Most Scots nationalists seem to want to re-enter the EU, but they seem as totally deluded about what that would mean as the avergae Brexiteer was/is about Brexit. At the very simplest level, they would have to adopt the Euro as currency. They'd be less independant than they are now, only the whip hand would change from England to Brussels.
Click to expand...

Although that is a fair argument on one level it does tend to equate to the old: "Keep a tight grip on Nurse for fear of something Worse." i.e. an argument based on fear of what *might* happen. That didn't work for preventing Brexit. Hence if that's your comparison you'll need a different line of attack.

The reality is now, I suspect, that so many Scots are sick of being ruled by Tories (of all rosette colours) 'down south' that they may simply decide being pissed about by the EU is worth being rid of Tory-rule ad infinitum. And prefer Hope to Fear as a basis for deciding.

And every trip up here by BloJo or his chums simply makes the wish to be rid of his ilk stronger.

If the LP in Scotland hadn't forced itself back into a time-warp where Blairism 'Triangulation' still rules, they might have broken that. But they've done the same reverse-ferrit as down South.

So, with reluctance, I suspect Scotland's mindest will continue towards wanting Independence. And much as I have my doubts, I'd now prefer Scotland to be back in the EU. So if the UK bars that, I suspect the wish to leave the UK will grow.
 
tones said:
Is it? I've a particular interest in my particular sod (Ireland), where more and more articles are raising the possibility of reunification in this, the centenary of Partition. This appeared in the Financial Times today:

https://www.ft.com/content/b596905e-9878-433d-9516-181e2432e4ee

I like this quote:

But nationalism has a secret weapon: the Democratic Unionist party. The strategic judgments of the province’s largest party have been among the most consistently witless in recent politics. One Tory MP fumes: “The DUP have done more damage to the Union than the IRA, Sinn Féin and all the nationalist forces combined.”
Click to expand...

Risible isn't it? Yes the DUP are a crock of the brown and smelly but most of what they've done recently has been at the behest of a corrupt, self-serving tory govt. They did get a nice bung too!
 
At the last independence referendum it was clear to all the majority of people in Scotland wanted to stay in the EU, hence why that became the biggest argument for the "No" campaign. Given the lunacy that is Brexit has now happened, and we have a government that's heading further to the right (with all the awful baggage that entails) and has an isolationist agenda - then I think it's only fair to ask the question again. i.e. Do the people of Scotland want to follow a progressively, socially aware agenda that involves being part of the EU, or do we want to be ruled by a right wing Tory government that cares not a jot for Scotland? Any economic argument is a lot less clear cut than last time, given Brexit and the economic fall-out from that. So let the people have their say.

The situation in NI now is pretty messy and it's difficult to see how a situation where there is a hard-border between NI and the rest of the UK, but not between NI and Eire, doesn't eventually lead to Irish unification (which is fine by me, if and when that's what a reasonably majority of the people of NI want). NI is in many respects still part of the UE, and it'll be interesting to see how that develops once people actually understand the implications of that. One example that affects me personally is that it is already significantly more expensive and time consuming to visit my family in NI, as I have a dog.
 
tones said:
Is it? I've a particular interest in my particular sod (Ireland), where more and more articles are raising the possibility of reunification in this, the centenary of Partition. This appeared in the Financial Times today:

https://www.ft.com/content/b596905e-9878-433d-9516-181e2432e4ee

I like this quote:

But nationalism has a secret weapon: the Democratic Unionist party. The strategic judgments of the province’s largest party have been among the most consistently witless in recent politics. One Tory MP fumes: “The DUP have done more damage to the Union than the IRA, Sinn Féin and all the nationalist forces combined.”

While I would like to see Ireland reunited (and I'm a Northern Prod!) and I sympathise with Scottish aspirations, I can't see that either is practical. What think the Fishies?
Click to expand...

Can't see the FT article..but interestingly, as a long-time Southern dwelling Northern left-footer, I'd have grave concerns about welcoming any more rabid Northern fundamentalist parties and their supporters into the electorate or political system here. Changed times what-ho ? :)

My kids are appalled at the thought of the 'xenophobic, homophobic NEVER NEVER dinosaurs' and how they might have voted in some of out more recent referenda. On perhaps a more pragmatic level, I'd be worried at the prospect of one of the smaller Northern parties ending up holding the balance of power in yet another unholy coalition agreement of the politicos down here. We saw how that worked out at Westminster - heaven help us all here if Arlene were by some not entirely unforeseeable electoral outcome to end up holding the balance of power in the Dail ..
 
With more than 10 times the population south of the border being preached at by 'er up there when they haven't voted for that, isn't it time to ask the English whether they would like independence from them up there.

Given the size and location of the the Brexit vote I have a feeling they'd be happy to see Scotland sail further away.
 
Jim Audiomisc said:
So if the UK bars that,
Click to expand...

Not sure that I have grasped what you mean.
England cannot stop an independant Scotland doing anything and a Scotland that is still part of the UK will not be allowed into the EU - that has been workd around already. Going back into the EU for the whole of the UK would cost an absolute fortune, far more than when we left, because the UK would never get the deal that it had, and it would mean using the Euro.
 
Minio said:
With more than 10 times the population south of the border being preached at by 'er up there when they haven't voted for that, isn't it time to ask the English whether they would like independence from them up there.

Given the size and location of the the Brexit vote I have a feeling they'd be happy to see Scotland sail further away.
Click to expand...
Independence may be the key to UK power shortages as the Chinese buy up Scotland and build a few coal power stations. None of this dangerous Nuclear stuff, although only the old would remain as the young head south for jobs.
In the real world away from pipe dreams, rising unemployment and economic woes following covid will calm threats of independence.
 
Colin Barron said:
Independence may be the key to UK power shortages as the Chinese buy up Scotland and build a few coal power stations. None of this dangerous Nuclear stuff, although only the old would remain as the young head south for jobs.
In the real world away from pipe dreams, rising unemployment and economic woes following covid will calm threats of independence.
Click to expand...

Are you saying a desire for sovereign independence should be reality checked against economic consequences?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.


advertisement


Back
Top