advertisement


Surviving Covid-19 - no way. The end of the human race threatens

avole

The wise never post on Internet forums
Scare topic title ? not really. So far not only have the majority of coiuntries failed to cope with it, their political systems ensure their societies have little chance. I'm concentrating here on Europe, and the USA rather than the handful of counrtries who have, so far, been able at most to check if not nullify the virus.

The problem is distressingly simple. If you life in a democrcatic country the chances of survival are minimal, simply because, where votes are a requirement, no political party is going to take the stringent steps, simply because nearly all political parties, be they socialist, communist, conservative or far right, would not entertain policies which would guarantee them loss of power. Furthermore, any society that believes in the rights of the individual over autocratic government is not equipped to combat the virus. That's the summary.

There is one thing I should add, by the way. If you feel your life is threatened by the virus, emigrate to China. They and a couple of other quasi communist dicatatorships can and have acted in such a way they have managed to minimise, if not stop, the first wave of the virus.

Europe has little chance of being less than decimated. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, all the stalwarts of the EU have not even come close to winning the war against the virus. I won't comment on the other EU countries, but here in France, which counts itself as having an offshore presence, a hangover from the days of empire, was unable to stop the virus being transmitted to those distant islands. There was nothing in French society, transport beliefs to stop it. Taking another example, the Netherlands has nearly lost control, simply because some of the requirements to stop the virus in its tracks went against the right of the average person, so the government could not enforce the obligatory wearing of masks in this case.

Then there is the UK. When you have a populist government that dithers for reasons given above, the odds are against you. When you have a society that believes in the rights of the individual, freedom of speech, and an unsustainable economic system, your chances of doing much are minimal. Furthermore, because said government could not initially enforce the steps that might have prevented the situation getting out of hand, even if curfews, masks, limitation of social groupings etc were later enforced, these were lifted before the impact was even close to minimising the spread of the virus.

Finally, that great paradigm of democracy, the USA, has again led the world, not in combatting the virus, but having a democratic system that encouraged it. Put simply, there is no way any country where each state is independent in so many things including health-related matters has a chance agains covid-19. Put simply, a state can introdice enough measures to minimise the impact, but, if it neighbours a state that does not do the same, it has little or no chance of succeeding.

I mentioned the UK deliberately, because it has ensured that Covid-19 can continue. If you look at the testing being done in most countries, you'll see the big fear is the discovery of {what is known as} the UK mutation {in their country}, for reasons we see every day. Yes, there are several version of the vaccine, but has enough research been done to guarantee these will work ? No, there clearly has not. As it stands, until enough research has been done, and enough vaccines if necessary produces to cope in all countries, the best thing to to is for all countries to shut their borders to UK citizens entirely, be they lorry drivers , tourists, or members of the government. France certainly had started the process, then was forced to stop - no need to mention the reasons why. So, as it stands the UK has become effectively become unwelcome in most parts of the planet.

I could go on about the failures in most democratic countries even to agree on the effectiveness of the vaccine they rely upon, even the time between shots, but there is little point. Hopefully, and damningly, liuck will be on our side. There's also no guarantee Covid won't mutate not once, but many times more over increasingly short periods of time.

Quite clearly, anything that calls itself a democracy is in gdnger of population extinction at worst or economic collapse at best. It is a bitter lesson for the human race, and the biggest lesson Covid-19 can teach us.

Sorry for rambing on, it's a lovely day here so I'm off to do my 1km walk with the dogs.

Cheers all.
 
Bow_Locks.jpg
 
Your paragraph on the UK is particularly flawed. The variant was identified in UK because the UK is one of the few countries in the world checking these things: it does not mean it started in the UK. The next mutation may start in France.
 
Your paragraph on the UK is particularly flawed. The variant was identified in UK because the UK is one of the few countries in the world checking these things: it does not mean it started in the UK. The next mutation may start in France.
Corrected above.
 
I mentioned the UK deliberately, because it has ensured that Covid-19 can continue. If you look at the testing being done in most countries, you'll see the big fear is the discovery of {what is known as} the UK mutation {in their country}, for reasons we see every day. Yes, there are several version of the vaccine, but has enough research been done to guarantee these will work ? No, there clearly has not. As it stands, until enough research has been done, and enough vaccines if necessary produces to cope in all countries, the best thing to to is for all countries to shut their borders to UK citizens entirely, be they lorry drivers , tourists, or members of the government. France certainly had started the process, then was forced to stop - no need to mention the reasons why. So, as it stands the UK has become effectively become unwelcome in most parts of the planet.

I think your reaction is totally understandable, but I also think you're missing the an essential thing, an elephant in the room. It can get into France via all borders.

Something very serious is clearly going on in PACA, especially Marseilles, I saw this morning that some Brits who arrived in the Hautes-Alpes at the end of the year have been found with the English variant. It's not clear to me how they got in, how they were tested. France doesn't have the sequencing capability of Britain apparently so it's probably elsewhere.

I think a more reasonable response for France is either close off all borders, or to improve testing requirements before entry. But I'm afraid to say that I think it's very likely that it's already too late. I hope I'm wrong.
 
I think it is fair to say countries with popularist-right governments have handled the first (current) phase of the virus very poorly as they tend to be skeptical of science and over-prioritise a rather gammony view of “freedom”. Similarly dictatorships such as China etc have faired well as they can, quite literally, weld the doors shut on tower blocks and imprison people. Police states gonna police state. The thing that bucks the pattern are the social democrat nations such as Norway, New Zealand etc which have managed to follow the science without needing the power of an authoritarian police state.

Beyond that I feel the OP must have been written prior to vaccine development as it appears once any of several options have been fully deployed to the population things will change very significantly for the better. I am in little doubt that our having a popularist-right government (and arguably a like-minded electorate) will have resulted in a final death toll at least 50%, maybe 75% higher than it need be, but I’m pretty sure the whole planet will move beyond this in time. Sure, things may never be quite back to ‘the before times’, we may need to adapt behaviours, have regular vaccination etc, but we will all get there. There will just be far less graves in NZ, Norway, South Korea etc.
 
Your paragraph on the UK is particularly flawed. The variant was identified in UK because the UK is one of the few countries in the world checking these things: it does not mean it started in the UK. The next mutation may start in France.

It was started in the UK hence why it's called the Kent variant, it came from a woman last September in Kent.

The big fear re whether the vaccines are effective on the various strains of coronavirus is that the virus mutates into something completely different, the guy whose laboratory discovered the Kent strain of the virus said 'virus in the wild' is the big concern by that he meant that basically the virus escapes and we then have to start all over again.
 
It was started in the UK hence why it's called the Kent variant, it came from a woman last September in Kent.

It has been traced back that far but is it proved whether that was the start of the mutation ? Or transmitted from someone unknown ?
The UK does about half of the total genomic sequencing done worldwide. So other countries just don't know.
 
It has been traced back that far but is it proved whether that was the start of the mutation ? Or transmitted from someone unknown ?
The UK does about half of the total genomic sequencing done worldwide. So other countries just don't know.

Pretty sure that's where it started with the woman I read that she was unwell for months with covid-19 and was treated with various medicines in an attempt to make her better then when she was tested they discovered the new variant, don't think it's been discovered to have started anywhere else in the world before last September although apparently there's a similar strain in Brazil and of course the SA variant.

**********quoted from below**********

Is the new variant more infectious?
Yes, according to a review of the current evidence by the UK’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG). Its 18 December report said that the rate of transmission of the variant, known as B.1.1.7 or VUI 202012/01 (variant under investigation, year 2020, month 12, variant 01), was 71% (95% confidence interval 67% to 75%), higher than for other variants, and that it may also have a higher viral load.1 While previous variants have emerged without clear evidence of having a selective advantage, the report noted, the “emergence and subsequent dominance” of this new variant in a period of relatively high prevalence indicated that it does have a “selective advantage over other variants.”

When did the new variant appear?
The first known case of this new variant was recorded on 20 September and sequenced in early October.2

What mutations does this variant have?
The new variant is defined by 14 mutations resulting in amino acid changes and three deletions, some of which are believed to influence the virus’s transmissibility in humans.

The World Health Organisation has reported that one of the mutations identified (N501Y) is altering an amino acid within the six key residues in the receptor binding domain.3 This same receptor binding domain mutation (N501Y) has also been reported in South Africa (n=45), where it arose independently of the UK variant, and Australia (n=37). Another change of significance is a deletion at position 69/70, which has been found to affect the performance of some diagnostic polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays that use an S (spike) gene target.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4944
 
Beyond that I feel the OP must have been written prior to vaccine development as it appears once any of several options have been fully deployed to the population things will change very significantly for the better.

No, he's just sceptical that it will be effective enough -- we'll know soon enough, no point in guessing. We should here from Porton Down about AZ and the UK Variant pretty soon now -- that's important.

Yes, there are several version of the vaccine, but has enough research been done to guarantee these will work [against the UK variant] ? No, there clearly has not.
 
^^ yes I remember reading something now. I suppose we do not know if it developed before treatments or mutated in the course of treatment ?
 
^^ yes I remember reading something now. I suppose we do not know if it developed before treatments or mutated in the course of treatment ?

According to The Sunday Times today the new variant is easy to track because of the deletion of some of the spikes in the mutated virus (think that's what they said)

Think the professor on the today programme explaining this mutation was from the Wellcome True Sanger Institute

Lifted from below

Summary
Recently a distinct phylogenetic cluster (named lineage B.1.1.7) was detected within the COG-UK surveillance dataset. This cluster has been growing rapidly over the past 4 weeks and since been observed in other UK locations, indicating further spread.

Several aspects of this cluster are noteworthy for epidemiological and biological reasons and we report preliminary findings below. In summary:
The B.1.1.7 lineage accounts for an increasing proportion of cases in parts of England. The number of B.1.1.7 cases, and the number of regions reporting B.1.1.7 infections, are growing.
B.1.1.7 has an unusually large number of genetic changes, particularly in the spike protein.
Three of these mutations have potential biological effects that have been described previously to varying extents:

  • Mutation N501Y is one of six key contact residues within the receptor-binding domain (RBD) and has been identified as increasing binding affinity to human and murine ACE2.
  • The spike deletion 69-70del has been described in the context of evasion to the human immune response but has also occurred a number of times in association with other RBD changes.
  • Mutation P681H is immediately adjacent to the furin cleavage site, a known location of biological significance.
The rapid growth of this lineage indicates the need for enhanced genomic and epidemiological surveillance worldwide and laboratory investigations of antigenicity and infectivity.

Background
The two earliest sampled genomes that belong to the B.1.1.7 lineage were collected on 20-Sept-2020 in Kent and another on 21-Sept-2020 from Greater London. B.1.1.7 infections have continued to be detected in the UK through early December 2020. Genomes belonging to lineage B.1.1.7 form a monophyletic clade that is well supported by a large number of lineage-defining mutations (Figure 1). As of 15th December, there are 1623 genomes in the B.1.1.7 lineage. Of these 519 were sampled in Greater London, 555 in Kent, 545 in other regions of the UK including both Scotland and Wales, and 4 in other countries.

https://virological.org/t/prelimina...defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563
 


advertisement


Back
Top