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Stock Market 2022

Discussion in 'off topic' started by Ponty, Jan 6, 2022.

  1. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Yeah, bet that deal was cut many months ago...

    We'll be back at the trough within 6 months you watch...
  2. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    So a second mate in the last week has messaged saying they might just sell up.

    Both these lads thought I was a bit weird trimming positions 6 months ago and sitting on cash. Their argument was that there is "Loads of liquidity in the markets so why sell, it's the time to Buy?". I half bought into that myself so didn't trim enough.

    One lad was nearly 60% up on POLY a few months back and I was saying for Gods sake sell. He was holding on for 100%+...might still happen but he's had enough and is now well down...

    Market Sentiment is a powerful thing...liquidity or not
  3. matt j

    matt j pfm Member

  4. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    As always, as long as you’re not a forced seller, time in the market is your friend. FTSE 100 companies etc aren’t going to zero. It would take a zombie apocalypse to ‘lose’ what you put into the FTSE. I ask myself the following:

    1. Do I think my holdings will be worth more in 5 years / 10 years than today?
    2. Can I time the market?

    For me (and most others), the answers to the above will be 1. yes and 2. no. In which case, don’t panic and carry on. I’d be amazed if 5/10 years from now a well diversified equity portfolio was worth less than that cash left in the bank. Inflation will feed though into company profits and share prices.
    Dozey, paulfromcamden and davidsrsb like this.
  5. NeilR

    NeilR pfm Member

  6. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Yes, one of those mates must be the worst 'stock jumper' I know!

    Basically, when he sells a stock I seriously look at buying it :)
  7. Kirk

    Kirk pfm Member

    The FTSE 100 closed at 6930 on Dec 30, 1999. It is now around 7079. At a guess, it will go lower in the next few months.
  8. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    No divs?
  9. Joe Hutch

    Joe Hutch Mate of the bloke

    They’re all in the Cabinet.
  10. davidsrsb

    davidsrsb pfm Member

    I would not expect the FTSE to be as bad as the US market as it is not pumped by the Teslas of the world
  11. Mike Reed

    Mike Reed pfm Member

    I can add another one to that list.

    (3) Is the company likely to crash/fold? (Carillion in mind here but there are others from time to time).

    That's interesting, as last evening with the FTSE closing down at 7020, I had a feeling that it'd been 'floating' within the 6500 to 7500 for a number of years. Okay, your figure was at the height of the dot-com bubble but 22.5 years later and that it's still within a whisker of that valuation challenges credibility when much of the intervening period has seen low interest rates and booming business over many areas.

    I've got one stock which still hasn't resumed divi's after a dearth now approaching 3 years; Centrica. Price been in the doldrums for at least that long too and it's not all British Gas either !
    Kirk likes this.
  12. paulfromcamden

    paulfromcamden Baffled

    Except that doesn't really work. Are you suggesting everyone's pension should be permanently held in cash?

    It does highlight though how precarious retirement is for our generation who have to rely on money purchase schemes that could tank during a crash, compared with the previous generation who largely enjoyed the security of defined benefit schemes.
    sean99 likes this.
  13. Darth Vader

    Darth Vader From the Dark Side

    I'm not sure what you mean by this statement and feel you are being far too pessimistic.

    If you look at the stock market performance over the decades you'll see that it has its ups and downs but the trend is upwards. You'll only take a hit if you are forced to cash in during a bear market.

    I retired almost 12 years ago and didn't have a defined benefit scheme (unless you include my small teachers pension) and was in a company money purchase scheme. On retiring I transferred this into a SIPP where I can choose how the money is invested and how/when to take cash. I don't take a monthly income rather a lump sum whenever I feel the need so I can cash in on profits and then ride out a slump. Its worked re-markedly well but I did put in a lot of my income for retirement whilst working.

    As they say every cloud has a silver lining and during the 2007-8 financial crisis although the value of shares nose dived I got a 20% overall gain on some of my investments in around 8 months!

  14. davidsrsb

    davidsrsb pfm Member

    Which is part of (1)
    Avoid anything that is too trendy and might go out of fashion - the Dot Com bubbles
    Avoid sunset sectors like brick and mortar retail

    Dividends sweeten the flat FTSE levels
  15. Darth Vader

    Darth Vader From the Dark Side

    Indeed and they purchase more shares at their lower price! Time is such a precious thing.

  16. matt j

    matt j pfm Member

    No I was taking the piss out of the usual replies when crypto hits a down trend.
    paulfromcamden likes this.
  17. paulfromcamden

    paulfromcamden Baffled

    Oop sorry - seem to have my Literal Brain in today...
  18. Kirk

    Kirk pfm Member

    They can lessen the pain for sure but are not much good if capital depreciation exceeds the dividend. I'm not sure 'it will be better in 5/10 years' holds true anymore. The horizon is much longer today. The markets are more volatile, distorted and complex. There are also more so-called black swan events today than in the past. And climate change hasn't really kicked into gear yet.
  19. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    I definitely wouldn't take the last 10-15 years as evidence of future trends. It's been a period of the most screwed up monetary policy ever IMO....and here we are lurching from one crisis to the next. Nothing was 'fixed' in 2008.

    I was looking at housing data from NZ. Some places are down 15% in the last 6 months (Wellington)...NZ started raising interest rates last Oct well before everyone else. Canary in the coal mine. There's always plenty of houses to go around when lose monetary policy is reigned in...
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2022
  20. Kirk

    Kirk pfm Member

    I was saying that 'stocks will be worth more in 5/10 years' is less likely today than in the past as the world becomes more volatile whether it be politically, socially, economically or because of the weather. Loads more debt as well this time around.

    NZ's houses prices were in bubble for a while. Down around 9% on average so far this year. Predicted to fall another 2-3% in 2023. A healthy correction at a time of monetary tightening.

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