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Stock Market 2022

There will be some pension funds in deep water now. This share price slump is worldwide, even in markets that had not been booming since 2008
 
Bitcoin close to 1/3 of its price 17 months ago.
The bright side is that I can see coin mining stopping, its just not worth the electricity
 
I don't think we're quite at max pain/bitcoin is dead (again) stage just yet. Still need to shake out the Covid noobs who haven't been through a bear market yet.
 
The only Govt / central bank solution thus far has been to throw money (they haven’t got) at problems. If the resulting impact of their actions is left to unwind it’s going to be mayhem. Inflation will eventually filter through into company profits (already in the case of BP etc). In the meantime the public sector will threaten strikes whilst others fight for their job as the contraction bites. What will the govt do? Will the home owner with a big debt, leased cars and nothing in the bank get bailed because they can’t afford to fuel them or heat the house? We know consumer confidence is based on house prices. Will the holy grail be thrown aside?

Here’s an interesting article. All this car price nonsense is purely supply driven (a bit like housing). You wonder whether the big boys are now deliberately thwarting supply…
https://www.am-online.com/news/mark...would-be-a-bloodbath-without-supply-shortages
 
Interesting how Apple and Microsoft are getting whacked. Some of the largest and most profitable companies in the world. Not only that, the whole world pretty much runs on them and can do so irrespective of pandemics or even people not being able to afford petrol to drive to the office. I’m keeping the faith anyway!
 
Ponty said:
The only Govt / central bank solution thus far has been to throw money (they haven’t got) at problems. If the resulting impact of their actions is left to unwind it’s going to be mayhem. Inflation will eventually filter through into company profits (already in the case of BP etc). In the meantime the public sector will threaten strikes whilst others fight for their job as the contraction bites. What will the govt do? Will the home owner with a big debt, leased cars and nothing in the bank get bailed because they can’t afford to fuel them or heat the house? We know consumer confidence is based on house prices. Will the holy grail be thrown aside?

Here’s an interesting article. All this car price nonsense is purely supply driven (a bit like housing). You wonder whether the big boys are now deliberately thwarting supply…
https://www.am-online.com/news/mark...would-be-a-bloodbath-without-supply-shortages
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On you point about cars, one metric I follow is Porsche annual worldwide sales:
2019:- 280,000
2020:- 270,000
2021:- 300,000

Manufacturing issues...hmmm...numbers don't back that one up...

It's more the demand side where lots decided they wanted a Porsche in 2020/21 and Porsche reduced new car deliveries to UK in 2020/21 as it's not as lucrative market for them. 2022 Q1 deliveries to the UK were back to 2019 levels. Things are changing and if the money markets continue to drop...demand for this type of car will also drop. Dealers will be back to cold calling customers with new car build within the year IMO.
 
I suppose as it’s a relatively niche but highly profitable product, VW group will allocate the chips etc to bash those out (as long as demand is there) over Golfs etc.
 
Ponty said:
I suppose as it’s a relatively niche but highly profitable product, VW group will allocate the chips etc to bash those out (as long as demand is there) over Golfs etc.
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Yes, but the mantra pushed out by Porsche dealers is it's due to manufacturing bottlenecks (breeding FOMO). It's not and is being created by a sudden uptick in demand that could very easily drop off a cliff.
 
davidsrsb said:
US technology stocks were in a world of their own, this is a re-levelling
Click to expand...

Of course, but they’re still making a ton of money and are market leaders in an ever expanding sector. If they disappeared overnight the world would collapse.
 
As I see it, the Fed, etc. are not going to step into 'Buy' the stock market this time. Inflation is their No. 1 target now.
During the Covid/Trump era, saving the stock market and housing was Trumps no. 1 target (the wealth effect).

That has backfired and inflation is causing more havoc in the common man/women (i.e. Voter!) than stock market/property prices. Most people in the world don't actively play the stock market or hold investment properties - they are passively involved via their pension, etc. But most people do fill their cars and buy food every week. They are seeing the inflation hit straight away and politicians are scared to fook as historically no one gets re-elected with rampant inflation...

This stuff was discussed in the 2020 thread as a very possible outcome of their interventions. They are blaming Ukraine but the seeds were sown much earlier than that.
 
I don't think it backfired but it went on too long.
Petrol/gas/some food inflation is caused more by Russian invasion of Ukraine. And Covid supply chain/logistics issues.
 
wacko said:
Petrol/gas/some food inflation is caused more by Russian invasion of Ukraine. And Covid supply chain/logistics issues.
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That's the political spin on it and it's not all of the story. It's not that binary. Once governments around the world had someone to blame, they came clean about their inflation projections being so wrong and that was blindingly obvious in 2021.

They created an artificial 'wealth affect' when there was no basis for it (the world had shut down)

People around the world bought houses etc. based on their flawed future interest rate predictions (lies?). Price inflated houses partly due to their interventions that weren't necessary (IMO) and have created a debt trap. Houses would have moved just fine after say a 6 month lull without a Stamp Duty holiday...other countries had similar interventions. The government saw house prices falling in Spring 2020 and panicked. There were lots more serious issues than house prices to be panicked about back then.
 
wacko said:
I don't think it backfired but it went on too long.
Petrol/gas/some food inflation is caused more by Russian invasion of Ukraine. And Covid supply chain/logistics issues.
Click to expand...

Petrol and gas inflation are also in part because the oversupply and resulting crash in energy prices during the pandemic forced the energy companies to reduce output, and it takes time to increase the output.

It's also in part because the new Saudi regime, headed by Mohammed bin Salman, that orchestrated the murder of Jamal Khashoggi is not on good terms with the West and is using this opportunity to profit by not increasing output to lower oil prices.

The Russian invasion is certainly not helping, but oil and gas are currently in a perfect storm - I think even without the invasion we'd be seeing high prices.
 
sean99 said:
Petrol and gas inflation are also in part because the oversupply and resulting crash in energy prices during the pandemic forced the energy companies to reduce output, and it takes time to increase the output.

It's also in part because the new Saudi regime, headed by Mohammed bin Salman, that orchestrated the murder of Jamal Khashoggi is not on good terms with the West and is using this opportunity to profit by not increasing output to lower oil prices.

The Russian invasion is certainly not helping, but oil and gas are currently in a perfect storm - I think even without the invasion we'd be seeing high prices.
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Government media soundbites choose to ignore those facts as it doesn't fit the "blame Putin" narrative.

I'm pretty sure Powell's language changed really quickly after the invasion after talking shit for a year...
 
The big issue now compared to 2008 economic shock and the 90's Asian crisis is if this goes 'pop' there will be no growth engine in the world to pull us out of it. We had China in 2008 and we sure as hell don't now. Don't forget, China isn't just a producer of goods...it's a consumer now too.

I've offloaded my Shell and BP now as I don't think the demand side of that equation is as certain as many seem to think....and it's one of the few good news story stocks I was holding lately :) :)
 
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