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Stock Market 2021

Discussion in 'off topic' started by andyoz, Jan 1, 2021.

  1. NeilR

    NeilR pfm Member

    for sure, but maybe a buying opportunity?
     
  2. davidsrsb

    davidsrsb pfm Member

    I expect those 0-60 times to get reflected in insurance grouping, just like hot hatches became expensive 40 years ago.
    Anecdotally Teslas seem to have more than their fair share of acceleration related prangs
     
  3. davidsrsb

    davidsrsb pfm Member

    One reason for the EV performance is that many countries offer very generous import duty breaks for EVs for the rich, competing with the European sports car segment, that is strangled by high duty.

    In the long term excessive performance has a high cost, bigger motors, hopefully matching brakes and tyres, more weight
     
  4. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    That's an interesting point. I know when I ran heavily modified turbo cars in the 90's, I had to be very careful about other drivers. When my car was on boost, it would change position on the road in a way that other drivers just weren't used to. It wasn't their fault, but they would literally lose track of where I was relative to them on a multi-lane road etc.

    I'm no Senna but at least had years of experience at it and was aware of the problem. Not sure alot of ones new to EV's would be.
     
  5. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    I had a good look at the brakes on the Audi e-tron I drove and they were massive 6 piston calipers more at home in a top spec v10 Audi R8. I don't fancy the maintenance cost on them as a 2.4 tonne car sure won't be easy on them. At least in an R8 you'd get some fun rewards out of using them...in an e-Tron they just make you not have an accident :).

    God knows what tyre wear is like on them too.

    You could negate alot of what an EV saves on fuel in you first big tyres and brakes consumerables bill. Especially if you try to raz around in one like a sports car that weighs half as much...which alot will of course to impress us ICE 'fools'

    [​IMG]
     
  6. davidsrsb

    davidsrsb pfm Member

    Snufkin likes this.
  7. NeilR

    NeilR pfm Member

    due to the energy regeneration mode on EVs, brake wear is next to non existent. The problem is more to do with under use i.e. disc corrosion. This is why Volkswagen have re-introduced drum brakes on their latest EVs.

    during a recent test drive of a Jaguar I-Pace, we hardly touched the brake pedal at all and that was including some quite hard driving. Great car, btw. Before criticisng all EVs for crap handling and no driver enjoyment, you should try one.
     
  8. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Yes, but they still need to be massively over-engineered for the odd occasion where you need to emergency stop the 2.5 tonne missile.

    Good point about the rate of 'consumption' being low - hadn't thought of that. Brakes need a certain amount of use/heat to help with water and corrosion and those calipers aren't cheap to rebuild
     
  9. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Back on topic though - for those predicting a massive recession (even depression) I just can't see the conditions being there. There will be some bumps along the way though.

    Depressions are ultimatley caused by banking failures (the 1930's) and governments not providing stimulus. Biden is basically doing a Roosevelt, the difference is isn't coming nearly 5 years too late like in America after the 1929 crash.
     
  10. davidsrsb

    davidsrsb pfm Member

    Was it the stimulus or was it WWII production that ended the depression. The USA did very well selling to Europe in the first half
     
  11. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    It was ultimately both but if they had carried on the way they had until Roosevelt God know what mess they would have been by end of the 30's
     
  12. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    One thing about the '29 market crash is I think it was the first time retail traders had access to buying on margin?

    Margin is a big factor now and really accelerated during Covid. Some are going to get their arses handed back to them no doubt about that.
     
  13. sean99

    sean99 pfm Member

    If there were a sudden outbreak of financial contagion like 2008 would governments and central banks be willing or even able to intervene again ? The public is still furious that the financiers were made whole last time and governments are in a much weaker financial position this time.
     
  14. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    The banks are far better capitalised now. In terms of the UK, Brown was asleep at the wheel with Northern Rock / HBOS and in allowing RBS to bite off more than they could chew (ABN). I’d have cut them loose. Ultimately govts will step in to prevent systemic failure, like it or not. Trouble is, they stepped in in 2008 and didn’t step out once disaster was averted. ZIRP / QE has a lot to answer for IMHO.
     
  15. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    They know the playbook now and will keep doing it and to feck with the future and the younger generations.

    Social unrest will probably ultimately bring this down though. It's not clever alienating a whole generation, particularly young men as they come out fighting. Some of this crypto play is them shoving it up the establishment. The thing is the establishment is in the mix too now and the house normally ends up wining...
     
  16. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    Well, I’ve topped up on the ‘risky’ stuff at these levels, despite my current downer on the US. SMT, PCT, EWI all been absolutely walloped over the last 2 weeks. If there is another meaningful drop I’ll buy some more. Long term, I can only see exponential pace of change and these guys are well placed to capture it.
     
  17. Mike Reed

    Mike Reed pfm Member

    Exactly the scenario I've been going through these last 18 months (2 prop's). Capital to invest for virtually nil return or a (potentially) steady income. Matters were taken out of my control to a large extent but with a positive outcome as I still have 2 income streams and and am providing homes for those who cannot afford to buy.
     
    Ponty likes this.
  18. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    The interesting dynamic with property ATM is that the stamp duty holiday and people reassessing their lives has created a mini bull market. When that happens, ones that need to sell but not immediately sit on their hands and that creates a supply issue....that further pushes up prices...that then makes ones sit on their hands for longer...etc. You get left with crap like probate etc stuff on the market...

    But if sellers think the market is near peak (interest rate shudders) they could look to get their's listed...
     
  19. Mike Reed

    Mike Reed pfm Member

    Why is probate property crap? A friend of mine bought one such a few years ago; it was shared by 3 beneficiaries and he made a very low offer, which to his surprise, was accepted. Nice 3 bed fifties semi built well by the local authority and a large garden + drive in Ramsgate. £107 some 6/7 years ago, over £2K now and never had a void period.

    Okay, limited experience but very positive, not crappy.
     
  20. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Yeah, a generalisation but the process can be messy (not the property), i.e. it's put on the market before probate has even been granted and you find that out months after delays on the promise that'll it'll be coming soon (rarely does). But if it all goes well it can be great.
     
    Mike Reed likes this.

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