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Stock Market 2021

Discussion in 'off topic' started by andyoz, Jan 1, 2021.

  1. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Not in NI it isn't if you bought in 2011/12. Alot of NI property was bought by people from Ireland and some had fallen by 70% by 2012 as the banks pulled the rug from under them....it was a total fire sale. If you want an example of how property is sentiment driven, that is a textbook case.
     
  2. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    When I tell people that have just signed up to a 25 year mortgage that by year 5 they might be paying 5% interest...I get the same 'are you mad?' look as when I told people I was buying stuff a decade ago.

    I'd say I was being optimistic too...could be much sooner.
     
  3. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Yes, I think it all hinges on the supply side. If that gets sorted, then we get to see the real state of play. In the car market, some used cars are selling for more than new ones simply because there is no stock of new ones. Has anyone ever seen that in living memory?
     
  4. sean99

    sean99 pfm Member

    I think there's a combination of pent up demand and still recovering supply chains, notably in semiconductors. What I can't tell is to what extent the government helicopter money of the past year will (be allowed) to cause significant long term inflation.

    Also semiconductor companies have operated for years on razor thin margins, with the exception of a handful of rockstar companies, so they must be salivating at the prospect of making decent margins for a period of time.
     
    Rana likes this.
  5. martin clark

    martin clark pinko bodger

    ^ you could re-state all of your post @sean99 in terms of UK construction, and I think it holds.

    Tender returns are starting to climb through the roof currently and will for a while yet for exactly the same reasons ... and that does not automatically mean I'm moved to invest in UK construction company via shares... the headline candidates mostly still have structural issues to solve/pay-down / & only if they learn their lessons.
     
  6. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    Rents? They won’t fall and likely to increase IMHO as the floor is set by housing benefit, creating another false market. I thought about offloading property at the current silly prices but there’s no point. As you say, the capital value is irrelevant, it’s an income stream. A bit like buying shares in decent companies paying divs.
     
    Mike Reed likes this.
  7. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    ‘House prices are a matter of opinion whereas debt is real’ - Mervyn King
     
    Snufkin likes this.
  8. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    With residential property, you are better to have nice steady trickle of rent for a decade or two instead of buying a house, it going through the roof and then you offload with a big CGT bill and not alot of rent collected. The difference is with the first option, you need patience which appears to be in increasingly short supply when it comes to investing.

    You ideally need to have flexible control over your earnings though. When I decide to offload, I sure as hell will be adjusting my 'wages' over those years to minimize CGT tax!
     
  9. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Debt is very real and banks can pull the rug from under you in months if the cards don't stack their way
     
  10. Ponty

    Ponty pfm Member

    We’ve had over a decade of ‘emergency’ rates, a golden ticket for people to pay down debt. Those of middle age shouldn’t be surprised (or complain) when rates increase. Of course it’s the youngsters who now hold the baby. There’s no solution without pain for a lot of people. We’d be in a stronger position now if they’d have let the cycle play out and maintained 5% IR’s (still historically very low) over the past decade, IMHO.
     
    Snufkin likes this.
  11. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    ^^^ This - but clearly many have seen it as a signal to get into even more debt (and that's exactly what the governments want).

    I have zero debt on all my assets. Many would think that's a bad plan (and I plan to reverse it a wee bit) but that's my MO.

    Twice in my lifetime, I have witnessed what banks can do when the shit hits the fan but luckily wasn't caught out in either of them..
     
    Snufkin and Ponty like this.
  12. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

  13. Rana

    Rana pfm Member

    ^ More market manipulation. Probably wants to top up now that he is starting to lose competitor OEM credit sales.
     
  14. davidsrsb

    davidsrsb pfm Member

  15. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Ponty likes this.
  16. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Will be interesting to see how Gold and Silver react. I still think they were a good hedge against this, especially a few months back when their dip appeared to be finding some sort of a bottom.

    But it seems to be retracing the last few days so who knows...
     
  17. NeilR

    NeilR pfm Member

    I am still of the view that this is temporary and once the covid recovery bounce has worked through the system, it will fall back although maybe not too the extreme low levels we are used to. There are a lot of companies and people struggling out there.
     
    Snufkin likes this.
  18. NeilR

    NeilR pfm Member

    talking about Tesla, in Europe, it appears that Tesla registrations have fallen off a cliff. In April ( for the countries that have reported) tesla only had 1,6% of the EV market. Looks like VAG is storming the market:

    https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL_MONTHLY/Brands/Month/2021/4
     
  19. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Yes, I'd agree but it's going to cause a bit of carnage in the meantime?
     
  20. andyoz

    andyoz pfm Member

    Surprise, surprise...

    One commentator described Tesla cars as looking like 10 year old Mazda's which nailed it for me (I can't 'unsee' that now). It's pretty easy to dominate a market when you're the only player.

    They're under big pressure in China. Good luck beating the 'local' manufacturers there.

    The mainstream makers are near to getting their EV's 'good enough' for the next wave of EV adopters and the swing to these other brands will happen quickly. That doesn't mean 500+ mile range or 3 second 0 to 60 times - Tesla has really pushed that spec narrative in the EV fight because they know the competitors are lined up.

    It's irrelevant to the majority of buyers once range gets above say 250 miles and gets better with the next generation etc...fast 0-60 times are a thrill during the test drive maybe but as an example my wife wouldn't give a toss. I test drove an Audi e-tron (car dealer neighbour brought it home) and floored it a few times, then got bored and just did the rest of the drive normally...

    As I understand it, Porsche, Audi etc don't make their EV cars drivetrains. There's a massive supplier machine out there ready to pump these out en masse for the various car companies when the demand surge comes.
     

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