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Stock Market 2021

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paulfromcamden said:
Hilarious in a way that markets are tanking because the US economy is doing better than expected.
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Good economy = lowered expectations of future free money from the Fed. It's a bizarre black=white and good=bad world that we now live in. But ultimately it seems that the US stock markets are driven more by fed policy than by the real economy, hence the markets hanging on every word of Mr Powell.
 
matt j said:
lol, and people pan crypto for volatility.
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when you consider EWI is a fund of about 50 stocks, it is quite extraordinary for there to be a 12% drop in a single day. I lost 6% on it today, but i am looking at the 10 year return and i expect volatility this year.
 
Tony L said:
Sorry, I’m new to this, what does ‘on margin’ mean?

As stated upthread I’m in with what I have long-term, at least ten years from now, so I’m not rattled by peaks and troughs as I’m not personally doing any buying and selling. Whatever is there in ten years or so is what I have and it just isn’t worth getting wound up about it. I can see some things may be changing with the Game Stop situation if the idea of internet-coordinated armies of punters start trying to game the market to deliberately take-out specific hedge funds etc. That may have a very real long-term effect I guess, but I can’t see it impacting ‘real’ stocks and shares, i.e. money that is invested in decent credible profitable businesses. It is all very interesting, but I’m far more comfortable betting on rare vinyl!
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there is going to be a lot of volatility this year, but in 10 years time, it is a fairly safe bet that you will have made quite a nice profit!
 
^^ Tony, stick with Fundsmith and long term you’re in good hands. It’s when you start going off piste that the trouble starts!
 
Dozey said:
Yes, buying on margin means taking a loan to buy shares. If the shares go up 50% you make 45% profit on money you didn't have. If the shares go down 50% you lose 55% of the money you didn't have, which is financially embarrassing.
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And some use margin to do Shorts etc. Fooken rocket fuel there...either go to the stars or blow up completely!
 
Ponty said:
^^ Tony, stick with Fundsmith and long term you’re in good hands. It’s when you start going off piste that the trouble starts!
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Investing is generally a 5 or 10 year thing, I keep an eye on my investments daily but stopped stressing too much about the odd blip, it’s a lot easier when you’ve seen things tank/bounce back a couple of times. I’m still pretty happy how things have gone bearing in mind the COVID catastrophe.
 
Amber Audio said:
I’m still pretty happy how things have gone bearing in mind the COVID catastrophe.
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I checked my ISA earlier in the week (95% dull index trackers) and it was up 20% year-on-year. During a global pandemic!

You don't need to be Warren Buffett to know there's a correction of some sort coming.

As you say, the long term view is the thing.

I worry more about whether it still makes any sense to hold bonds.
 
Ponty said:
^^ Tony, stick with Fundsmith and long term you’re in good hands. It’s when you start going off piste that the trouble starts!
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I’m actually spread beyond that as I already had other stuff via the building society (ASI, Vanguard, Fidelity, Threadneedle, M&G, plus those RM shares!). I took financial advice a fair while back and just did whatever they said as I really don’t want to obsess over this sort of thing, and certainly don’t want to do it myself! I know enough to know I don’t understand it! I’m very confident say buying vinyl, vintage audio, even guitars, but I have not the slightest clue about this sort of stuff so I’m staying well clear. It is what it is in ten years, it will either be enough to retire somewhere better, or it won’t, but I’ll just let it do its thing and forget about it until that point. I’m happy having eggs in various baskets as they all do seem to perform differently and the average so far has been decent, certainly better than any cash interest product I can think of.
 
Perhaps this is why Elon bought Bitcoin, to protect him from the volatility of the stock market/share price. Ha!
 
Tony L said:
I’m actually spread beyond that as I already had other stuff via the building society (ASI, Vanguard, Fidelity, Threadneedle, M&G, plus those RM shares!). I took financial advice a fair while back and just did whatever they said as I really don’t want to obsess over this sort of thing, and certainly don’t want to do it myself! I know enough to know I don’t understand it! I’m very confident say buying vinyl, vintage audio, even guitars, but I have not the slightest clue about this sort of stuff so I’m staying well clear. It is what it is in ten years, it will either be enough to retire somewhere better, or it won’t, but I’ll just let it do its thing and forget about it until that point. I’m happy having eggs in various baskets as they all do seem to perform differently and the average so far has been decent, certainly better than any cash interest product I can think of.
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Good work. Uncle Terry (Smith) will probably grow your pot the most, without taking huge risk. I hope it enables your long term plan.
 
andyoz said:
P/E is still nearly 1000 BTW...
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And, for one example, BP.L notional company value languishing while a solid/proactive forward model in place and P/E somewhere around ..12 ish? perhaps less depending on how last 9months viewed.

- where then is 'value'? Standard metrics - all seem displaced by hand-waving/Marketing - and esp - instagram-matic BS. None of this can end well; except - 'it' won't end , so much as roll down the road, along with other cans, and they, those various cans - I think will convolve.. o_O



(Thanks for the tip on the DeLorean doc - I'll go look that up out of ...historical interest.)
 
Ponty said:
This should have been the warning sign, topped out on 15 Feb.

https://www.trustnet.com/news/52535...cottish-mortgages-tailwinds-set-to-accelerate

Just looking at EWI, HL says it stands at a 5.04% NAV premium!
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Its 4.36% now. Very hard to get a accurate value when there are such wild share price movements. it has been consistently just over NAV since about 2017. Nothing out if the ordinary here for a successful IT.

Let’s see how it goes over the next few years. To put my purchase into perspective, it was about a 1% stake of our equity portfolio value and yesterday’s increases in our UK equity income funds (is value finally starting to outperform?) wiped out the EWI loss in any case!

If you want to see a NAV that is really out of whack with reality, check out the Lindsell Train IT (LTI) 5 year historic NAV. It is coming back closer to NAV now though.
 
As an addendum to the above, the EWI purchase is my second attempt at dipping my toe into investments trusts. We basically hold all investments as unit trusts but HL have told us that as non uk residents, due to Brexit, we can’t buy or switch into any UK registered unit trusts from now on. Thanks Brexiters!

My first attempt was JEO which is manged by Alex Darwall who was formerly the Jupiter European fund manager which was a top performing fund under his tenure and we did well out of it. So i switched some money into JEO. Did great for a while but then was caught up in the wirecard fiasco and then performance crashed and never recovered. Sold out of that to buy EWI and shares promptly crash 11% in a day (although i did know i was buying into volatility). Let’s see how it goes from here.
 
You’re neither up nor down until you cash out though, patience is usually rewarded as long as the fund is well managed. Wasn’t aware of the Unit Trust/Brexit thing, that sucks.

I started out moons ago with regular payments into 4 ITs, F&C & SIT which dis very well plus MC Japan and an Invesco which never really performed as well as I hoped, I then moved us to buying UTs in our PEPs then ISAs.
 
NeilR said:
As an addendum to the above, the EWI purchase is my second attempt at dipping my toe into investments trusts. We basically hold all investments as unit trusts but HL have told us that as non uk residents, due to Brexit, we can’t buy or switch into any UK registered unit trusts from now on. Thanks Brexiters!

My first attempt was JEO which is manged by Alex Darwall who was formerly the Jupiter European fund manager which was a top performing fund under his tenure and we did well out of it. So i switched some money into JEO. Did great for a while but then was caught up in the wirecard fiasco and then performance crashed and never recovered. Sold out of that to buy EWI and shares promptly crash 11% in a day (although i did know i was buying into volatility). Let’s see how it goes from here.
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Tempted to buy a bit of EWI and forget about it. I’ll continue to hold SMT, big drop over the past 6 weeks or so but confident long term. Some have suggested BG were buying back shares this week to try and narrow the NAV gap. I hope they are not soon to become a fading star.
 
Ponty said:
I hope they are not soon to become a fading star.
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I don’t think so. They know what they are doing but as they are out and out growth investors, the next year or so might not be so great for them as value seems to be coming back a bit.
 
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