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Stock Market 2020

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Rana said:
Me too, along with holdings in BT and NRR, but still holding back along with my pension which is now in cash. Would have loved also to have bought AV so watching what happens to that in the next few months. The rise in the markets is pricing in future circumstances belying this current miserable situation. Actually, I hope the market optimism is well placed even if that means I have made too conservative an assessment with regards to protecting my pension.
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Pension is still in cash and property. I will start moving in equities later this year at the very least as I have a 5 to 10 year horizon anyway.
 
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The stock markets can race away in inflated dollars as governments everywhere print money, but commodities like food and metals will soar in price as these are tangible.
Meanwhile salaries will fall because the job markets are zero worldwide.
 
^^ This is exactly the inflation scenario I consider possible, which will cause a standard of living reset for many.
 
I drove past a car valuation centre the other day and was shocked to see a long line of almost brand new cars. People who could barely afford a car now out of work and caught out badly
 
I've been riding the Carnival etc ride the last two weeks. Lots of retail investors into stocks like that ATM so not sure I believe it.

Mid to long term I'm looking at GDX. Anyone looking at a Gold or Gold miners entry point this could be it
 
I still see parallels with the dot com boom.

Back then, we had the infinity of the internet.
Now we have the infinity big the Fed!

Lots of new investors in the system too...
 
davidsrsb said:
The stock markets can race away in inflated dollars as governments everywhere print money, but commodities like food and metals will soar in price as these are tangible.
Meanwhile salaries will fall because the job markets are zero worldwide.
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The more I watch the patterns emerging, I think that's a good summary.
 
davidsrsb said:
I drove past a car valuation centre the other day and was shocked to see a long line of almost brand new cars. People who could barely afford a car now out of work and caught out badly
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If they are fairly new cars and on finance, folks will be writing out some big cheques to clear the negative equity just to get out of the deal. Presumably the proliferation of vehicle finance is similar in KL?
 
Snufkin said:
Good point as we now have easy/cheap online share trading platforms which would have been unusual in the late 1990's.
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Yes, although the late 90's dotcom boom coincided with the first generation of online share platforms being open to the masses. I remember visiting my mate in Oz around 1999 and him and his wife were going on about their tech stocks...had lost pretty much all of it when I was back a year later. It's been 20 years so there's a whole new generation of 'fresh bait' for the stock market system to tap into...

Many ones in US are zero commission following a price war last year so it's a perfect storm.
One thing that concerns me about Carnival is I know that's in the top 10 traded stocks on the US platform Robinhood where alot of madness is going on. I'm not sure I want to be part of that herd (that lot are also well into hertz FFS).
https://markets.businessinsider.com...tcy-traders-global-holdings-2020-6-1029285231

If it continues, I will be taking some partial profits some time this week.
 
Ponty said:
I was expecting a bit of profit taking this morning, it appears not!
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Me too but watching. This thing is just moving up too fast and I don't buy it. It would be different if we had a vaccine...and also a vaccine to protect from Trump and Boris.
 
Even with a vaccine, it will take time to distribute worldwide and I suspect the economic damage will linger on for 5-10 years, the full employment last year was a stack of cards based on free money and was already coming apart at the seams, before the pandemic, with the trade wars and nationalism
 
Ponty said:
If they are fairly new cars and on finance, folks will be writing out some big cheques to clear the negative equity just to get out of the deal. Presumably the proliferation of vehicle finance is similar in KL?
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Worse, you could get an insane 9 year loan if you were a civil servant. OK cars are kept longer in Malaysia, but we also have high import duties that pump up the new value and increase depreciation
 
davidsrsb said:
Even with a vaccine, it will take time to distribute worldwide and I suspect the economic damage will linger on for 5-10 years, the full employment last year was a stack of cards based on free money and was already coming apart at the seams, before the pandemic, with the trade wars and nationalism
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Don't hold your breath for a vaccine. Back in 1984 it was said that we'd have a vaccine for the HIV virus in around 18 months - that was 36 years ago.

Cheers,

DV
 
I sold Carnival at lunch time anyway...50% gain in just over a week isn't normal in my book. The fundamentals haven't changed really. The markets aren't acting normally at all.
 
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