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Rejoin the EU?

Discussion in 'off topic' started by droodzilla, Jun 30, 2020.

  1. Colin L

    Colin L pfm Member

    Hopefully Scotland will be independent by then and in the EEA or some other half-way house, before re-joining.
    Tory England can suit themselves. F*ck's not given.
     
  2. Sue Pertwee-Tyr

    Sue Pertwee-Tyr Staying alert

    Would you be able to find it in your heart to give a f*ck about those of us resident in England and carried along by this particular riptide against our will?
     
  3. i.j.russell

    i.j.russell pfm Member

    I think your scenario is much more likely than the whole of the UK rejoining the EU. I'd also expect to see re-unification of Ireland pushed up the agenda.

    I don't know how it could happen but wouldn't it be interesting if London declared independence from the Tory Shires.
     
    roman likes this.
  4. KrisW

    KrisW pfm Member

    2024 is far too soon - it's not long enough to negotiate and ratify any sort of post-EU trade treaty (especially at the low effort level on show from the UK to date). For better or worse, you won't know how Brexit has treated the UK until the early 2030s.

    I see the UK remaining outside the EU, but gradually coming into the same sort of territory as Turkey occupies on trade: general alignment with the EU standards (and - say it quietly - some acceptance of the ECJ as final arbiter in trade disputes) in order to get access to the market, but will still be subject to hard limits on movement, residency and investment. This won't happen until the current ideologues are kicked out of government in favour of something more pragmatic (which could be of any political colour - the Conservatives have a lot of form when it comes to internal coups).

    The EU allows any country to apply for membership, and as the UK is already compatible with the legal and civil standards necessary for membership, and is unlikely to diverge too much, the actual process could be done in as little as five years (Finland and Sweden joined the EU in 1995, just three and four years after applying, respectively; Austria applied in 1989 and acceded in 1995. Those are the closest examples to the UK in terms of being mature, well-developed democracies with strong civil and social values). But as @Tony L pointed out, the UK had a very favourable set of membership conditions before, which it would not regain. The most politically-charged of the new conditions is of course the requirement for new entrants to eventually adopt the Euro as their own currency. (Denmark's explicit opt-out and Sweden's infinite deferral are not available to new entrants)

    I think you may get a chance to see how that process works if a second Scottish referendum passes. The Scots aren't attached to what's on their banknotes (commercial banks issue Scotland's paper money, so there's no "national banknote"), so Euros wouldn't be as big a change to them, especially if the GBP's current instability becomes the norm.

    But no, there won't be "punitive" entry conditions, just the loss of all of the privileges, rebates and special circumstances that the UK had negotiated at a time when such things were still possible.
     
    NeilR, SteveS1, droodzilla and 3 others like this.
  5. Colin L

    Colin L pfm Member

    Steve,

    My sympathies extend to any and all that are being dragged into Brexit against their choice.
    However, collectively England has revealed itself to be a whirlpool of nonsense, ignorance and prejudice, encouraged and fomented by special interest groups and racists.
    As much as I would like to help I'm afraid you are on your own and the sooner Scotland (and me and mine) can get away from English Tory dominance, the better.
     
    ff1d1l and mondie like this.
  6. Joe Hutch

    Joe Hutch Mate of the bloke

    Only if you're prepared to relocate to Scotland.
     
  7. sean99

    sean99 pfm Member

    I think the combination of COVID Brexit and an incompetent far right Tory government will have Britain on its knees by 2024. The real question is whether this will cause the electorate to reconsider or to double down on nationalism. It feels too early to call that one.
     
  8. kensalriser

    kensalriser pfm Member

    Fine with joining the Euro. Also fine with some kind of coordinated EU defence capability. The US can't be trusted as global security guardian any longer (if it ever could) and Europe will need something if/when NATO collapses.

    I'm OK with some kind of Federal EU too, as long as they kick out fascist states (Poland, Hungary).
     
  9. Arkless Electronics

    Arkless Electronics Trade: Amp design and repairs.

    Bring it on yes! Rejoin as soon as possible no matter what the cost and terms are. Those are the price we will have to pay for the stupidity of little Englanders.
    Meanwhile those Eastern European members that now have far right govs must be expelled.
     
    andrewd, jackbarron and tqineil like this.
  10. roman

    roman pfm Member

    I have a hunch it'll be the latter.

    We are world class at scapegoating, rather less good at introspection.
     
  11. tones

    tones Tones deaf

    To the best of my knowledge, there is no provision for expelling an EU member state, only a mechanism to apply certain sanctions against it.
     
  12. Arkless Electronics

    Arkless Electronics Trade: Amp design and repairs.

    Yep federal EU, EU army, Euro all welcome. Fascists not welcome of course!
     
  13. KrisW

    KrisW pfm Member

    @tones - yes, the framers of the EU treaties were good at making sure you don't get in without meeting certain standards, but they didn't put enough thought into what to do with backsliders.

    As both Poland and Hungary are heavily dependent on intra-EU transfers, there are proposals for the upcoming budget to allow the withholding of such funds as a way of sanctioning countries that aren't adhering to the common values of the Union. However, this has always been seen as a Pandora's Box policy that could galvanise populist leaders (manufactured victimhood is the lifeblood of fascism).
     
    sean99 and roman like this.
  14. Woodface

    Woodface pfm Member

    Interesting. I voted remain but recently thought that being outside the EU post Covid may be a better option. It could give us more flexibility to trade with the Far East & not tie us into to big bailouts for Spain or Italy?

    Personally I think the general public have had enough of the whole thing so we probably need to make the best we can of the current situation.

    I could well be completely wrong, I am not beholden to this view just a notion really so get all aggressive etc.
     
  15. Bob McC

    Bob McC Living the life of Riley

    I’ll happily apply for a Scottish passport through it being my dad’s birthplace.
     
    tqineil likes this.
  16. droodzilla

    droodzilla pfm Member

    I wanted to start a discussion, and I'm interested to hear other people's views.

    Personally, I hope the scenario I describe does not materialise. I think the EU issue should be parked for at least one election before reopening the debate.

    If it does materialise and Starmer sticks to his present position (that the matter is settled), I hope people think very carefully about not splitting the anti-Tory vote in 2024.
     
  17. eisenach

    eisenach European

    Johnson's US trade deal is being specifically designed to preclude any chance of the UK rejoining the EU. (Or at least, so said one of the lefty-liberal internet sources I read. Guardian?)
     
  18. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    How many weeks left of the EU trade talks - 4...5? By failing to make any demands at all, they'll end up in a take it or leave it situation, which is precisely what Johnson wants of course. Personally, I think Starmer has lost the plot completely, he's so absorbed in the internal machinations...
     
  19. pjdowns

    pjdowns Living the Hifi dream

    At the moment I wouldn't vote to rejoin the EU because we don't yet know whether leaving has been a success or failure and doubt very much we will be to define that by 2024.

    I am not someone who thinks the whole world is going to end because we have left the EU, more curious to see how it turns out.
     
  20. zarniwoop

    zarniwoop hoopy frood

    :D
     

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