Oh Britain, what have you done (part XXII)?

[droodzilla]

How? Why on earth would the EU agree to that, which is basically all carrot and no stick?

We'd have to pay for access but it's one of the options covered by the general term "soft Brexit":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37507129

See especially the table headed "Alternative Brexit Options".

Turkey, Norway, Canada options... Not as good as what we have now but not as ruinous as the hard Brexit Farage has wet dreams about.

 

[lordsummit]

I still think yesterday's events point to a final settlement in which *all* of the UK remains in the Customs Union (and Single Market?) in all but name. I know the DUP are pro-Brexit, but surely they would prefer this option to regulatory divergence from the rest of the UK.

I think the problem for May is that this is the obvious solution, satisfactory to most except for toadies in her party. Rees-Mogg, Gove, Johnson aren’t going to accept that.

So, she needs a border in Ireland, or in the Irish Sea. That’s not acceptable to either Eire or the DUP.

I think this position is called checkmate. Sometime soon the whole edifice is about to come crashing down. I believe either Gove or Rees-Mogg will launch a leadership campaign after the usual stalking horse candidate. Their push for a full English Brexit will lead to the DUP not backing the Tories, by spring or even before I expect we’ll be doing the election dance again.

I’m hoping that Junker et al would see a different administration as an opportunity to reboot the negotiations.

 

[eternumviti]

Even if it did, though, immigration wasn't exactly a minor issue in the referendum, and without a hard border what stops Northern Ireland being a simple route into the sunlit uplands of Brexitannia? Or maybe that is the longer term plan - we can then copy the US and focus our hatred on "illegals" rather than EU "economic migrants".

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you are forgetting the EK/Eire Common Travel Area, which predates the ECSC/EEC/EC/EU. Ireland is also, like the UK, outside Schengen, so as regards immigration the EU - UK/Eire borders are already effectively at the UK and Irish ports/airports.

 

[droodzilla]

I think the problem for May is that this is the obvious solution, satisfactory to most except for toadies in her party. Rees-Mogg, Gove, Johnson aren’t going to accept that.

So, she needs a border in Ireland, or in the Irish Sea. That’s not acceptable to either Eire or the DUP.

I think this position is called checkmate. Sometime soon the whole edifice is about to come crashing down. I believe either Gove or Rees-Mogg will launch a leadership campaign after the usual stalking horse candidate. Their push for a full English Brexit will lead to the DUP not backing the Tories, by spring or even before I expect we’ll be doing the election dance again.

I’m hoping that Junker et al would see a different administration as an opportunity to reboot the negotiations.

I agree but why do you think a "full English Brexit" would alienate the DUP?

My view is May ought to tell the Brexit ultras in her own party where to go. They are far-right extremists and do not represent the will of the people. However, I'm not holding my breath for that and fear she's far more likely to shaft the Republic of Ireland.

 

[droodzilla]

For reference, another summary of Brexit options:

Caveat: this is from a year ago so perhaps not all of the above areavailable now.

 

[notaclue]

"Arlene Foster has ruled out flying to London today for Brexit talks with Theresa May as insiders warned that the Democratic Unionist Party was “far away” from agreeing a deal with the Government on the Irish border." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...-meeting-theresa-may-today-dup-said-far-away/

I doubt they're bluffing. This sort of thing is in their DNA.

We're in a real-life version of the 48 Hours movie, but the DUP make it Mission Impossible. Theresa May is our hapless and clueless hero.

Government and pound to collapse within weeks, I reckon.

 

[Tony L]

David Davis is droning endlessly in the HoC at present. I missed the initial Labour question and response, but the DUP chap made a short speech and they certainly won’t accept anything at all that moved NI even a mm further from the rest of the UK. They will be as fixed and intransigent as their history suggests. I will be beyond amazed if May’s clown troupe get any movement from them.

 

[merlin]

Remarkable that the BBC headline is "Labour attack Government for Embarrassing Brexit talks", then gives absolutely zero coverage as to what was said or by whom.

At what point does this farce come to an end in the interests of the UK and her citizens?

 

[lordsummit]

I agree but why do you think a "full English Brexit" would alienate the DUP?

Because they’d have to have a border with Ireland. If we crash out that’s the inevitable consequence.

 

[droodzilla]

David Davis is beyond terrible in the HoC now. What a horror show.

 

[MVV]

Remarkable that the BBC headline is "Labour attack Government for Embarrassing Brexit talks", then gives absolutely zero coverage as to what was said or by whom.

At what point does this farce come to an end in the interests of the UK and her citizens?

That is our problem. No-one in power has any concern for 'the interests of the UK and her citizens'. They are all only concerned with their own narrow self-interest. It is utterly shameful.

 

[gingermrkettle]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-p...uble'&&ns_fee=0#post_5a269b42e4b0d95b3e15bad9

A Tory whose first name is Sir talks down at Eire. That will help...

 

[Joe Hutch]

Remarkable that the BBC headline is "Labour attack Government for Embarrassing Brexit talks", then gives absolutely zero coverage as to what was said or by whom.

At what point does this farce come to an end in the interests of the UK and her citizens?

It's now been updated:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42231497

'Labour's Brexit spokesman Sir Keir Starmer said that when the DUP objected to the draft agreement, "fantasy met brutal reality".

"The DUP tail is wagging the Tory dog," he said, in a reference to the deal struck between the parties to help the Conservatives survive key votes. Mr Starmer also called for the government to drop its plan to enshrine the 29 March Brexit date in UK law.'

 

[Michael P]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you are forgetting the EK/Eire Common Travel Area, which predates the ECSC/EEC/EC/EU. Ireland is also, like the UK, outside Schengen, so as regards immigration the EU - UK/Eire borders are already effectively at the UK and Irish ports/airports.

No, it is this that I was thinking of, but I might be missing something. Checks are currently pretty lax on travel between Ireland and the UK, so won't that need to be strictly enforced given the referendum was largely about immigration? When I've driven Dublin-Holyhead, I've never had more than a check that my driving licence name matched the name on the ticket, and I don't think they asked for IDs from passengers. It is a while since I travelled as a foot passenger, but I thought I recalled ID checks were random rather than enforced as with air travel?

This is about getting to the mainland I'm thinking of, by the way - there is no check on travel across the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland (and unless that changes, Johnny Foreigner can befoul British lands with impunity).

 

[eternumviti]

I can't see why anything much will change, Michael. The CTA predates the EU etc. The borders to the CTA/Schengen area will remain the UK's and Ireland's ports and airports. I read somewhere that the immigration systems at the points of entry are joined up. I assume there will merely be a passport check on this side of the Irish Sea to log EU (and non-EU) nationals passing into the UK mainland.

 

[tones]

No, it is this that I was thinking of, but I might be missing something. Checks are currently pretty lax on travel between Ireland and the UK, so won't that need to be strictly enforced given the referendum was largely about immigration? When I've driven Dublin-Holyhead, I've never had more than a check that my driving licence name matched the name on the ticket, and I don't think they asked for IDs from passengers. It is a while since I travelled as a foot passenger, but I thought I recalled ID checks were random rather than enforced as with air travel?

This is about getting to the mainland I'm thinking of, by the way - there is no check on travel across the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland (and unless that changes, Johnny Foreigner can befoul British lands with impunity).

I think the current system will continue to apply. Since the 1920s, i.e just after the creation of the Irish Free State as it then was, Irish and British people have been free to move to the other country, take up residence, start a business, vote in local elections - I think they've even be able to stand for election, should they desire to do so. The relationship is rather unique, and I'm sure it will continue.

 

[stephen bennett]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you are forgetting the EK/Eire Common Travel Area, which predates the ECSC/EEC/EC/EU. Ireland is also, like the UK, ...

And you are forgetting that both parties were outside the EU when this was a 'thing'.

The issue is that the border is Ireland isn't just a border in Ireland—it's the border between a third country, as the EU has it, and the EU itself.

Brexiteers think this is trivial—the EU thinks it's important to protect their market from cut-price goods.

Strange from a group of people obsessed with hard borders.

Stephen

 

[eternumviti]

And you are forgetting that both parties were outside the EU when this was a 'thing'.

The issue is that the border is Ireland isn't just a border in Ireland—it's the border between a third country, as the EU has it, and the EU itself.
Stephen

The CTA certainly predates the EEC/EU etc, but it continues to this day, with various updates having taken place as recently as 2008 and 2011 I think. Ireland (and the UK of course) will remain outside Schengen. The departure of the UK from the EU will surely not affect the movement of people between the two countries in any significant way, just goods and services.

There is still a de facto border between NI and Eire, across which there exists a vigorous trade in smuggling diesel fuel, apparently largely run by ex-IRA crooks, the ones with their weapons 'put out of use'.

 

[Michael P]

I don't know. Surely taking back control of our borders is meant to give us the opportunity to enforce different policies on those borders? If the same policy isn't upheld by Ireland, doesn't that create an issue? Say the UK bans anyone from Country X with a criminal record from entering the UK (which is one of the key criteria for the Leave voter), and Ireland doesn't do similar - how is that handled?

 

[TheDecameron]

I don't know. Surely taking back control of our borders is meant to give us the opportunity to enforce different policies on those borders? If the same policy isn't upheld by Ireland, doesn't that create an issue? Say the UK bans anyone from Country X with a criminal record from entering the UK (which is one of the key criteria for the Leave voter), and Ireland doesn't do similar - how is that handled?

You need to acquaint yourself with current regulations (hint- file under bendy bananas). If people voted leave on the basis you cite, they made an expensive mistake.