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Has Covid split the world in two ?

W

wacko

pfm Member
Between those countries which have controlled the virus (China, Vietnam, N&S. Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Australia, Taiwan, Singapore, New Zealand, Baltics, Pacific Islands and others) and the rest ?
If there is no vaccine next year or even the foreseeable future what will that mean ?
Australia and NZ discussing a travel bubble by Xmas. I think the Baltics already have one.
 
Also Germany, Finland, Norway, etc.
What COVID has certainly done is badly damaged air travel, AirBnB, international tourism in general, offsite seminars, discos and night clubs etc. for the next few years.
 
It's much more than that though.
In those countries that have controlled it life is normal.
In the rest it is deaths, unemployment, long-term health issues and lockdowns.
If this goes on for years apart from the economic consequences surely there will be political instability when the contrast becomes clearer.
Will there also be desperate new waves of illegal immigration attempted ?
 
there will be an effective vaccine soon I believe, though in agreement with the split theory
 
wacko said:
Between those countries which have controlled the virus (China, Vietnam, N&S. Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Australia, Taiwan, Singapore, New Zealand, Baltics, Pacific Islands and others) and the rest ?
If there is no vaccine next year or even the foreseeable future what will that mean ?
Australia and NZ discussing a travel bubble by Xmas. I think the Baltics already have one.
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biblical plague innit. hence correct term is rent asunder. just sayin
 
We haven’t controlled it probably because we’re not prepared to shoot and burn the bodies of anyone trying to get into the country
 
I keep feeling that lots of things seem to split the UK in two. I don't feel this as much in Germany or France.

As per, I am only talking from personal experience, a microscopic view. I don't read reports and blah de blah that one needs on here to get kudos.
 
wacko said:
In those countries that have controlled it life is normal.
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No, it isn't. Some countries did better than others (or were just more lucky), but no country has ever 'controlled it'. The businesses described above by @PsB are still struggling no matter in what country they are, and will for some time.
 
Cheese said:
No, it isn't. Some countries did better than others (or were just more lucky), but no country has ever 'controlled it'. The businesses described above by @PsB are still struggling no matter in what country they are, and will for some time.
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My brother lives in Brisbane and says life is normal apart from travel. What is your source ?
The whole State of Queensland has 8 Active Cases: if that is not 'controlled' what do you call it ?
And if you want to split hairs and say Queensland is not a country Australia as a whole is down to 1,595 Active Cases and dropping fast. Victoria lockdown measures to be lifted early. Some other countries mentioned have done even better. It took leadership and sacrifice: bit insulting to call it luck (apart from the very small Pacific Islands).
Travel problems is a given. I was thinking more about general quality of life for an average person.
 
wacko said:
My brother lives in Brisbane and says life is normal apart from travel. What is your source ?
The whole State of Queensland has 8 Active Cases: if that is not 'controlled' what do you call it ?
And if you want to split hairs and say Queensland is not a country Australia as a whole is down to 1,595 Active Cases and dropping fast. Victoria lockdown measures to be lifted early. Some other countries mentioned have done even better. It took leadership and sacrifice: bit insulting to call it luck (apart from the very small Pacific Islands).
Travel problems is a given. I was thinking more about general quality of life for an average person.
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They were saying all that in UK a couple of months ago!
 
The world has been split in two by Covid: one part with well-governed countries and the other with poorly-governed ones.

Historically, the UK would have been in the first camp every time, but this time it's very much in the dunces' corner - the country's problems aren't due to a Tory government but rather this Boris Johnson Tory government. I've been surprised to see Ireland land squarely in the "managing well" camp, given how much people distrust politicians here.

@wacko Australia's "success" has more to do with its geographic isolation outweighing the bad policies of its government. Melbourne has only just emerged from its second hard lockdown, and my friends there are pretty scathing about how the government has handled this. Given that there are only about a dozen points of entry, Australia really should have been in the same class as New Zealand.
 
^ putting private companies in charge of security of the quarantine hotels in Melbourne led to a classic Aussie f-up (literally !). They've done well to get the situation back under control though.
It shows how contagious this virus is and how fast it can spread: all countries started with just 1 case regardless of how isolated that population is. I agree it is almost entirely about Government leadership and policies. The vast majority of people will follow clear, logical, science-based leadership and they will 'influence' the selfish minority.
Some countries that have done well/badly are naturally isolated, some are not. To view it as the deciding factor lets Governments off the hook. IMO isolation just gave more time initially to some places but by February/March all Governments were aware of the issues. Only countries like Italy had an excuse as they had no warning: good to see them doing relatively well now.
Once the number of unknown active cases is in the thousands it is a hard slog to recover no matter where you are.
 
wacko said:
all countries started with just 1 case
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That's not accurate. Most European countries had dozens if not hundreds of infected people arrive from Italy or other early hotspots. Apart from tiny island nations with very little travel, I doubt any country had only a single person responsible for introducing the virus. Even in China, it seems (to me) probable that multiple people were independently infected from the original animal source.
 
paulfromcamden said:
An article in the FT the other week outlined how screwed the aviation industry is. It predicted that national carriers will all have to be nationalised in some capacity.
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Did it say anything about State Aid Paul? Thing about the airline industry (and, from memory, the aircraft industry as a whole) is that the 'national carriers' idea has largely phased out and been replaced with a legal framework that prevents states from subsidising their-once national airlines because it's supposed to be a market. Perhaps there's a mega get-out in that framework, be it the fairly well-known EU one or the other international ones though.

This is really huge potential covid effect - that "markets" (many of which aren't really markets in practice) will have to be replaced by collective action, assuming states don't want immense economic collapses.
 
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