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Coronavirus - the new strain XXIV

The update was delayed yesterday. Hospitisations have now bottomed out, 617 (23/1) vs 599 last week. 65% of over 50s have had the Autumn booster - get it now or cry later.

"In week 3, influenza positivity decreased to 2.8% compared to 6.5% in week 2, with the highest positivity seen in children aged 5 to 14 years old and in the 15 to 44 years and at 4.5%. Through primary care surveillance, the influenza-like-illness consultations indicator decreased in week 3 and returned to baseline."


https://assets.publishing.service.g...1131971/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w4.pdf

 
Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 in University Setting

Postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection, commonly known as long COVID, is estimated to affect 10% to 80% of COVID-19 survivors. We examined the prevalence and predictors of long COVID from a sample of 1,338 COVID-19 cases among university members in Washington, DC, USA, during July 2021‒March 2022. Cases were followed up after 30 days of the initial positive result with confidential electronic surveys including questions about long COVID. The prevalence of long COVID was 36%. Long COVID was more prevalent among those who had underlying conditions, who were not fully vaccinated, who were female, who were former/current smokers, who experienced acute COVID-19 symptoms, who reported higher symptom counts, who sought medical care, or who received antibody treatment. Understanding long COVID among university members is imperative to support persons who have ongoing symptoms and to strengthen existing services or make referrals to other services, such as mental health, exercise programs, or long-term health studies.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/29/3/22-1522_article
 
I think this week's topic is 'excess deaths'

This one was very interesting, with a very experienced Actuary providing explanations and data.

I assumed that excess deaths was not that easy to calculate and I now realise that there is no right answer, just various actuarial calculated numbers, as it is very complicated. The initial spikes in 2020 and then 2021 were easier to calculate, but 2022 and what happens this year will be much more difficult due to many complicated and inter-related factors. For example:

1. The damage done by Covid in many cases (e.g. Long Covid, organ damage, clotting), on average, makes us likely to die sooner (and more and more people are affected as more people have had Covid over time).
2. As a result (and other reasons such as lack of funding , delaying treatment due to Covid) we have over loaded the NHS, which means more patients die sooner.
3. The delays in getting patients into A&E that have got worse and worse and currently result in 500 additional deaths per week (not all in the hospital or the following week but time correlated with the delay).

The UK is an outlier with Sweden, across Europe, in not vaccinating children.

Vaccines delivered through a nasal spray are not being researched by the UK, but we would if course benefit if they are made to work. However, more importantly we need more effective vaccinations in the first place that stop transmission and avoid Long Covid etc.

The most important developments that we need are vaccine+. I.e. things like we keep on talking about on here with clean air through ventilation, filtration, virus killing filters, effective and well fitting masks etc.
 
There was an interesting post earlier this week on the inside medicine substack (https://insidemedicine.substack.com/p/are-yearly-covid-19-boosters-the)
about timing the annual COVID boosters for vulnerable populations based on sewage testing, rather than based on the calendar.

The idea is that since maximum protection lasts only around 3 months for the most vulnerable (but only takes a week to be effective) if you boost all over 65s starting in September / October, many will be vulnerable during a January surge.

If you wait until the start of a surge and then implement a mass vaccination rollout - just like the ones we saw during the initial vaccination rollout, you could save an extra tens of thousands of lives (and maybe blunt the surge) - with exactly the same vaccines.

Maybe a good stopgap until we have longer lasting vaccines (which, let's face it, might be a long time).
 
The most important developments that we need are vaccine+. I.e. things like we keep on talking about on here with clean air through ventilation, filtration, virus killing filters, effective and well fitting masks etc.

I think it's hospital acquired infection that's preventing us from going below 500 admissions per day barrier - so hospitals would appear to be the place to start...
 
I haven't kept up with every post and nuance in this thread. Suffice to say I had the first two doses of the vaccine, then a booster, then failing any referral by my GP etc, I self referred for doses 4 and 5. Since 5 was last Sept, I decided to try booking dose No. 6. Booked online for Monday next, no problem.
As far as I know my immune system is OK, but never having knowingly contracted Covid, I have no 'proper' antibodies. Having Ischaemic Heart Disease, and now Heart Failure which is beginning to make its presence felt, it seems sensible to me to maintain what defence I can via repeat boosters. What does the team think?
 
I haven't kept up with every post and nuance in this thread. Suffice to say I had the first two doses of the vaccine, then a booster, then failing any referral by my GP etc, I self referred for doses 4 and 5. Since 5 was last Sept, I decided to try booking dose No. 6. Booked online for Monday next, no problem.
As far as I know my immune system is OK, but never having knowingly contracted Covid, I have no 'proper' antibodies. Having Ischaemic Heart Disease, and now Heart Failure which is beginning to make its presence felt, it seems sensible to me to maintain what defence I can via repeat boosters. What does the team think?

You'll just have to see what they say on the day, the booking system doesn't have all the nuances built in.
 
You can say that again Gav. A Google search for Covid Vaccination Help, points to assorted different routes to slightly differing NHS pages, offering inconsistent information and advice. I was discussing vaccination with a famously pragmatic friend last week and it was he who proposed just trying to book and see what happens. The info supplied did hint at discussions prior to the jab.
 
Mull, the ER doctor who writes this blog: https://insidemedicine.substack.com/p/are-yearly-covid-19-boosters-the recommends waiting until the start of a surge before boosting, because the boosters take effect very quickly (within a week) and wear off quite quickly (~3 months of max protection). I'm not a Dr but it seems like reasonable advice.
I'm lucky that we have sewage monitoring here in Boston, MA that's updated every 3-4 days, so it's pretty easy to see when surges are beginning. Unfortunately hospitalization data lags by 1-2 weeks, so sewage monitoring is the ideal way to see when surges are starting.
 
Mull, the ER doctor who writes this blog: https://insidemedicine.substack.com/p/are-yearly-covid-19-boosters-the recommends waiting until the start of a surge before boosting, because the boosters take effect very quickly (within a week) and wear off quite quickly (~3 months of max protection). I'm not a Dr but it seems like reasonable advice.
I'm lucky that we have sewage monitoring here in Boston, MA that's updated every 3-4 days, so it's pretty easy to see when surges are beginning. Unfortunately hospitalization data lags by 1-2 weeks, so sewage monitoring is the ideal way to see when surges are starting.

The issue is that this round closes in mid-Feb so it's now or never. Hospitalisations are increasing again in some parts of the country now.
 
Covid-19 has become the eighth most common cause of death among children in the United States, according to a study published Monday.

Children are significantly less likely to die from Covid-19 than any other age group – less than 1% of all deaths since the start of the pandemic have been among those younger than 18, according to federal data. Covid-19 has been the third leading cause of death in the broader population.

But it’s rare for children to die for any reason, the researchers wrote, so the burden of Covid-19 is best understood in the context of other pediatric deaths.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/30/health/covid-deaths-children/index.html
 
Had jab No. 6 yesterday. Arm is more sore than I recall from any previous jab, but otherwise OK. I checked with 119 before leaving for jab. They were happy. Also discussed at Vax centre. They too were happy.
Everybody's happy.
 
The next wave has started as feared, I think. Admissions are up across all regions and Zoe showing cases increasing sharply. CH.1.1 & XBB.1.5 sub variants now at around 40%. Update later...

 
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Mum's finally come down with it, but thankfully isn't feeling too bad.
Let's just hope she's clear of it by next weekend, as she's due to fly out to Australia to see my brother and his family.
LFTs seem to be in short supply again - I've been to four places today, and none in stock.
 
Mum's finally come down with it, but thankfully isn't feeling too bad.
Let's just hope she's clear of it by next weekend, as she's due to fly out to Australia to see my brother and his family.
LFTs seem to be in short supply again - I've been to four places today, and none in stock.

All the best guey. A new wave is always confirmed by folks here passing on the bad news
 


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