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Coronavirus - the new strain XXIV

sean99 said:
Definitely looks like a peak - let's hope we get some respite before the Autumn.
Click to expand...

The difficulty in interpreting it is that 2000 admissions per day seems to be around the total capacity so it will look like a peak anyway. I don't read anything much into the peak being a little below the last two. The ONS should tell us more tomorrow. If that's up 30% again then we'll have to remain sceptical until we get more figures next week - clearly hospitalisations should lag raw case numbers not vice versa.
 
The following points are for the week ending 13 July 2022 for England and Wales, and the week ending 14 July 2022 for Northern Ireland and Scotland.

[No fall to match the hospital figures I'm sorry to say, but some signs of peaking now]

  • The percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to increase in England; trends were uncertain in Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland.
  • In England, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 3,147,700 (95% credible interval: 3,012,300 to 3,290,500), equating to 5.77% of the population, or around 1 in 17 people.
  • In Wales, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 183,200 (95% credible interval: 150,300 to 219,600), equating to 6.03% of the population, or around 1 in 17 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 88,400 (95% credible interval: 63,100 to 117,500), equating to 4.82% of the population, or around 1 in 20 people.
  • In Scotland, the estimated number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was 340,900 (95% credible interval: 284,100 to 402,700), equating to 6.48% of the population, or around 1 in 15 people.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...naviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/22july2022
 
Join us as we reflect on the past year with data & insights - a #FreedomDay anniversary session - hosted by Prof Christina Pagel & Dr. Zubaida Haque, where we learn from the past & consider future plans. And Prof Deenan Pillay will present the 7-point plan we launched this week.

 
Why do the minority who haven’t had Covid account for most new infections?
About 15% of people in England have somehow never had Covid, yet 55% of new cases are from this group

"Even though 55% of Covid infections in England are first-timers, this is the lowest it has been since the start of the pandemic, except at the peak of the first Omicron wave, driven by the BA.1 variant in December. Looked at another way, 45% of cases are now reinfections, the highest the figure has ever been, or at least very close to it."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ent-had-covid-account-for-most-new-infections
 
Private UK care homes’ profit margins soared in pandemic, research finds

Amid staffing crisis and warnings that system is ‘deeply flawed’ companies caring for elderly and disabled enjoyed financial success

"The UK’s biggest care home chains saw their profit margins jump by 18% on average during the pandemic, new research shows, while the highest paid director’s salary surged to £2.3m."

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/24/uk-private-care-providers-profit-rise-covid-report
 
gavreid said:
Private UK care homes’ profit margins soared in pandemic, research finds

Amid staffing crisis and warnings that system is ‘deeply flawed’ companies caring for elderly and disabled enjoyed financial success

"The UK’s biggest care home chains saw their profit margins jump by 18% on average during the pandemic, new research shows, while the highest paid director’s salary surged to £2.3m."

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/24/uk-private-care-providers-profit-rise-covid-report
Click to expand...
Absolutely shameful but no great surprise.
 
Good Morning All,

Just been looking at Travelling Tabby and note we had 121 excess deaths in the last week in Scotland................

Regards

Richard
 
I think they said ca 2000 excess deaths at the last heat wave UK-wide, it will likely be a bit soon for those to feed through yet though...
 
A new Technical Briefing yesterday from UKHSA BA.2.75 (33 mutations in the spike protein) is now wild in the UK - they will allow the case numbers to build up so that it can be monitored - having learned nothing so far. Test and trace!!!


"As of 18 July 2022, there were 24 cases with BA.2.75 in the UK. Of these, 20 were in England,
3 in Scotland and 1 in Wales. In England, the first detected BA.2.75 cases had a specimen date
of 20 June 2022, in 2 East of England cases (Figure 11). Most cases (13) were London
residents, with further cases resident in the East of England (3), West Midlands (2), North East
(1), and North West (1) of England. The majority of cases were between 20 and 39 years of age
(Figure 12), with a median age of 30 (IQR 22.5 to 39.5) years."

https://assets.publishing.service.g.../covid-technical-briefing-44-22-july-2022.pdf
 
Experienced my worst side effects having had my first Modena jab at the beginning of the month having previously had 2 x Az followed by 2 x Pfizer. I don’t know that I caught Covid for the first time in April might have been a factor.

I think it was on this thread -thanks to those who wished me well in advance of my bowel surgery for cancer. I had the Op a week early and am recovering well albeit with an abdomen that feels like Mohamed Ali and Freddie Macgregor have taken turns on. Spending five days in hospital makes you realise:

there are people in a worse health predicament than yourself

how much we rely on it when we are seriously ill

how good the NHS and its staff are

Ray
 
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Something interesting and potentially hopeful I've just heard about from some friends of friends who have both been suffering from long covid for over a year.
The husband had a suspected DVT, and was put on Warfarin, which appears to have cleared his long covid. He's now been placed on a study looking into just this thing.
His wife was scouting around the internet for treaments, and came across some people who'd been helped by old school, sleep inducing antihistamines, such as are in Nytol. So, with nothing to lose, decided to try them. Within a week her long covid symptoms had vanished.
 
Met admits not sending Boris Johnson questionnaires over Partygate gatherings
Force accused of ‘deferential policing’ after it confirms not seeking details from PM over two events before deciding not to fine him

The Good Law Project (GLP), a non-profit campaign group that has brought a judicial review over accusations that the Met failed to fully investigate Johnson’s presence at parties, said: “The Met’s actions have raised grave concerns about the deferential way in which they are policing those in power.

“We don’t think the Met’s response is consistent with their legal duty of candour. And we certainly don’t think it’s consistent with what the Met has elsewhere conceded is their public duty to maintain public confidence in policing.”

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...nson-questionnaires-over-partygate-gatherings
 
How long is COVID infectious? What scientists know so far
Those with SARS-CoV-2 are often advised to isolate for only a few days. But evidence is mounting that some people can continue to pass on the virus for much longer.

Many scientists disputed that decision then and they continue to do so [to cut isolation periods]. Such dissent is bolstered by a series of studies confirming that many people with COVID-19 remain infectious well into the second week after they first experience symptoms. Reductions in the length of the recommended isolation period — now common around the world — are driven by politics [expediency], they say, rather than any reassuring new data.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02026-x
 
UK scientists take ‘promising’ step towards single Covid and cold vaccine
Francis Crick Institute in London says area of spike protein of Sars-CoV-2 could form basis of jab against variants and common cold

“There’s a lot of research still to do as we continue to test S2 antibodies against different coronaviruses and look for the most appropriate route to design and test a potential vaccine.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ng-step-towards-single-covid-and-cold-vaccine
 
Rise of Omicron subvariants sends UK staff absence soaring

Blow to businesses as 300,000 workers took time off due to Covid last month [in June], with BA.4 and BA.5 the majority of new infections

"Employers’ organisations said the return of Covid was a further blow, in addition to ongoing staff shortages, transport disruption, the impact of inflation and a number of employees already off work with long Covid."

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...on-subvariants-sends-uk-staff-absence-soaring
 
Today we are having a session on 'Creating Safe Environments', with guests Dr. David Tomlinson, Lara Wong and Assc Prof Lena Ciric, session hosted by Prof Trish Greenhalgh & Prof Susan Michie, Dr Guddi Singh as chair & Prof Christina Pagel on numbers.

 
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