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Coronavirus - the new strain XXI

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gavreid said:
10% on the 7 day average for cases. In the last 7 days the last 6 consecutive have been above 600. In the previous 7 days only 2 were.
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What's the 7 day average for cases? Is it higher than it was at the start of September? (38K on the 6th?)

We know that incidence rose last week in England of course, from ONS.

(It's now going to be interesting to watch Wales -- and retro-fit it to England :eek: )
 
mandryka said:
What's the 7 day average for cases? Is it higher than it was at the start of September? (38K on the 6th?)

We know that incidence rose last week in England of course, from ONS.

(It's now going to be interesting to watch Wales -- and retro-fit it to England :eek: )
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We've not been hitting 40 k reported cases since late July and that's 3 of the last 5 days
 
Caledon1297 said:
Covid response ‘one of UK’s worst ever public health failures’

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-one-of-uks-worst-ever-public-health-failures
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Andrew C! said:
Covid: UK start to pandemic worst public health failure ever, MPs say https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58876089

This one, plus the Guardian link, are two ways to report the same story….
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Caledon1297 said:
And a third way...

Failure to challenge poor scientific advice during pandemic cost thousands of lives

https://archive.is/MUFMK/again?url=...or-scientific-advice-pandemic-cost-thousands/
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Just on the basis of a quick read, despite different emphases and word counts (and headlines of course) they all seem quite similar. BBC stands out for the range of voices it includes.

I'll have to read the report but from the articles it seems like "groupthink" is doing a lot of heavy lifting - no attempt so far to ask what that consisted of or how it came to be. Maybe that will come later. I'll have a go now though: horror of supportive state intervention on the part of politicians, justified nervousness of radical NPIs on the part of health experts; contempt for the public - assumptions regarding selfishness, irrationality, unruliness, opportunism; exceptionalism - failure to take seriously what was happening in other countries; over-estimation of their own capacity to finesse the situation (remember the early involvement of the "nudge unit").

As to how it happened, my bet would be the similar backgrounds and political outlooks of all involved, the confused roles of CMO and CSO* (independent scientific experts or government spokespeople?), unclear relationship between policy-makers and SAGE - Cummings sitting in on meetings etc. might not have been disastrous in itself but indicates larger issues.

*Exemplified nicely by Vallance going on TV to say that his job was to speak scientific truth to power, while actually using his scientific authority to legitimise a policy he had private reservations about. And Whitty's "behavioural fatigue" hobby horse, if he was actually responsible for that.
 
“Following the science,” but was it the right science? A Parliamentary report raises serious questions about the UK’s covid-19 response

Martin McKee unpicks the findings:

"The government has argued throughout that it was “following the science.” Yet there were times when the advice was appropriate, but it failed to follow it, such as when it rejected arguments from SAGE in favour of a “circuit breaker” (although the report describes slightly differing views among senior advisers). But some of the science it did follow was simply wrong. The report catalogues numerous examples of views that were later found to be incorrect. Of course, that will always be the case with the benefit of hindsight. However, it includes accounts by those who say they had concerns at the time, but found it difficult to challenge what they were being told. Others from outside the government’s structures, such as Paul Nurse, wrote to express their concerns, but received no response. "

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/10/1...us-questions-about-the-uks-covid-19-response/
 
gavreid said:
“Following the science,” but was it the right science? A Parliamentary report raises serious questions about the UK’s covid-19 response

Martin McKee unpicks the findings:

"The government has argued throughout that it was “following the science.” Yet there were times when the advice was appropriate, but it failed to follow it, such as when it rejected arguments from SAGE in favour of a “circuit breaker” (although the report describes slightly differing views among senior advisers). But some of the science it did follow was simply wrong. The report catalogues numerous examples of views that were later found to be incorrect. Of course, that will always be the case with the benefit of hindsight. However, it includes accounts by those who say they had concerns at the time, but found it difficult to challenge what they were being told. Others from outside the government’s structures, such as Paul Nurse, wrote to express their concerns, but received no response. "

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/10/1...us-questions-about-the-uks-covid-19-response/
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What does that guy say that it would have been « appropriate » to have had a circuit breaker? I thought all the evidence is that they’re useless! Weren’t they tried somewhere - Wales maybe - to no effect? Those dessenting voices of senior advisors he mentions parenthetically were spot on.
 
Individuals cannot solve vaccine inequality. If you're offered a booster, take it

"The unfairness of global supply desperately needs to be addressed, but turning down a jab only means it gets wasted." Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group.

The “to boost or not to boost” moral dilemma is not in the purview of individual citizens who ponder whether to roll up their sleeve when offered a booster by a vaccine clinic this week. A dose that is in the vaccine clinic fridge (or freezer) cannot be redirected to someone else in another country, because the regulatory hurdles and shelf-life simply make redistribution of this dose not practical. Redistribution has to happen prior to the release of vaccine doses to the national health system. A protest against vaccination at individual level will be misdirected and risks wasting these precious doses. If you are asked to roll up your sleeve, then you should do so.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/12/individuals-vaccine-inequality-booster-jab
 
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