Coronavirus - the new strain XXI

[Joe P]

mandryka,

It just pains me to see what's happening in the UK (and the US for that matter). I have lots of friends there — yes, mostly virtual fishy friends — but if what is happening there were happening here, people would be outraged. And I have no illusions that Canada has done a great job with COVID. You only have to look to New Zealand to see what competent leadership can achieve.

Joe

 

[Joe P]

Canada is a bit like Australia in that the country is huge and largely empty, but where people can be found it's densely populated.

Joe

 

[Seanm]

Sean,

Is ten paid sick days a year crazy relative to the UK? That's what's being proposed here.

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/federal-government-legislation-10-paid-sick-days

Joe

It varies wildly: many people in insecure or low paid work don’t qualify for any sick pay at all, others will struggle to get what they’re entitled to, and the rate is, as I say, lowest in the OECD. Those at the other end of the labour market can expect more than your 10 days.

Not really trying to offer an alternative One Key Difference here, just pointing to one area that might be worth looking at, if you wanted to do a comparative study. Off the top of my head and knowing nothing about Canada I didn’t learn from the Degrassi Street kids I’d also consider climate, geography, built environment, broader working practices, social customs, hygiene practices, general levels of health, demographics, levels of trust in government and government trust in public, social care and its articulation with health care, health care capacity, government messaging, NPIs other than masks, sanity or otherwise of the press, support to isolate, whether or not there’s an equivalent of Dominic Cummings…the list seems literally endless. I’ve heard epidemiologists warn against off the cuff national comparisons and I totally get why.

 

[Joe P]

Sean,

It's not down to any one factor, but people in Canada* couldn't understand why Boris didn't keep non-pharmacological interventions — especially masks — in place after freedom day. Of course wearing a mask sucks and they don't come without costs, but wearing a mask is better than people getting sick and dying.

Joe

* Many people here have UK ties and roots.

 

[matt j]

Sean,

It's not down to any one factor, but people in Canada* couldn't understand why Boris didn't keep non-pharmacological interventions — especially masks — in place after freedom day.

A large part of it is purely childish populism, he's stuck in his Eton bubble of being a 'good chap' and not wanting to be the spoilsport. We get what we vote for, unfortunately a lot of people voted for him just because they thought he was funny, which says a lot about where politics is now in this country.

I hope people will see through it at some point and wise up in a - "Ok we've had the class clown in charge long enough now and shit has gone south, maybe we should get someone in with actual ability" - kind of way. I doubt it though, your average working class voter has given up on politics after years of having the piss taken out of them on all fronts. I think the best we could hope for is a multi party coalition, minus the Tories.

 

[Seanm]

Sean,

It's not down to any one factor, but people in Canada* couldn't understand why Boris didn't keep non-pharmacological interventions — especially masks — in place after freedom day. Of course wearing a mask sucks and they don't come without costs, but wearing a mask is better than people getting sick and dying.

Joe

* Many people here have UK ties and roots.

There are trade offs with masks that aren’t about whether or not wearing one sucks (I barely notice wearing them, personally) but the point really is that there’s a lot more to it than masks, and keeping demands and discussion focused on them lets the government off the hook. That might be one reason the government ended the mandate, if we want to credit them with sinister PR genius, but more likely it’s just a bonus.

I don’t think it’s a mystery why they lifted the restrictions. AIUI the reasoning was that it had to happen some time, and it might be better in the summer than the winter. I’ve no idea whether that was the right call or not, but it didn’t result in the apocalypse we were promised and the alternative approach has not been an unequivocal success elsewhere in Europe or even the U.K.

I think the government’s handling of the pandemic as a whole has been pretty heinous but this decision seems amongst the least sinister or perplexing. There were no right answers and the outcomes of any course of action were always highly uncertain. And that was the way most responsible scientists saw it too, as far as I could tell.

I don’t know how the U.K. situation was reported in Canada but it did seem to me at the time that international perceptions were strongly influenced by a letter in the Lancet (?), signed by many scientists and medics, denouncing the government in quite a Qanon style, and by iSage. I believe both gave a very misleading impression of where mainstream scientific opinion was at in the U.K. at the time. More moderate voices, more willing to acknowledge the trade offs and concede the limits of what scientists could actually offer as regards prescriptions, were crowded out or shouted down.

 

[Tony L]

A large part of it is purely childish populism, he's stuck in his Eton bubble of being a 'good chap' and not wanting to be the spoilsport. We get what we vote for, unfortunately a lot of people voted for him just because they thought he was funny, which says a lot about where politics is now in this country.

Agreed. There is a very clear popularist-right thing about mask-denial and a distinct overlap into climate-science denial too. Johnson’s actions send exactly the same message as Trump’s words and are amplified by all manner of nutters from Rees Mogg to Desmond Sawyne, Piers Corbyn and the rest of them. It’s fruitloop central to my mind. As Joe states if masks weren’t effective they’d not be worn in medical and scientific environments. It annoys me people try to force a masks vs. “freedom”, masks vs. sick pay, masks vs borders or whatever argument. Science just doesn’t work like that and the simple facts are they help prevent transmission and good medical grade masks help protect the wearer. Obviously these other things all have huge benefits or impacts too, but they are not in any way mutually exclusive.

PS I say this as one of many millions of self employed the world over who has zero right to any sick pay of any type. If we get ill we live on savings or sell possessions. Such is reality.

 

[Joe P]

Sean,

There are trade offs with masks that aren’t about whether or not wearing one sucks (I barely notice wearing them, personally) but the point really is that there’s a lot more to it than masks, and keeping demands and discussion focused on them lets the government off the hook. That might be one reason the government ended the mandate, if we want to credit them with sinister PR genius, but more likely it’s just a bonus.

Of course keep the pressure on the government to change all the things that ought to change — provide workers with paid sick leave, encourage working from home where desirable and possible, make testing free and easy, improve ventilation in schools and workplaces, etc. — but wearing a mask is a simple intervention that's effective at lowering the rate of infection and, several weeks later, deaths. I don't know why this is framed as an either / or kind of thing. Masks plus all the other things we ought to be doing. Note that I mentioned masks today because of a comment a few pages back about a fishie not wanting to go to the theatre or a concert if masks were required.

I have sympathy for the argument that wearing masks impedes teaching in the classroom, but not wearing one when shopping, working or attending a play or movie? Sorry, this is just being selfish.

I don’t think it’s a mystery why they lifted the restrictions. AIUI the reasoning was that it had to happen some time, and it might be better in the summer than the winter. I’ve no idea whether that was the right call or not, but it didn’t result in the apocalypse we were promised and the alternative approach has not been an unequivocal success elsewhere in Europe or even the U.K.

From my perspective, it nearly is apocalyptic in the UK. Granted, COVID deaths haven't followed the same pattern as COVID infections, and we can thank the vaccines for that, but the COVID situation in the UK is rather shit.

Joe

 

[Seanm]

Sean,



Of course keep the pressure on the government to change all the things that ought to change — provide workers with paid sick leave, encourage working from home where desirable and possible, make testing free and easy, improve ventilation in schools and workplaces, etc. — but wearing a mask is a simple intervention that's effective at lowering the rate of infection and, several weeks later, deaths. I don't know why this is framed as an either / or kind of thing. Masks plus all the other things we ought to be doing. Note that I mentioned masks because of a comment a few pages back about a fishie not wanting to go to the theatre or a concert if masks were required: "I hate masks and I would not want to wear one in a concert or at the theatre."




From my perspective, it nearly is apocalyptic in the UK. Granted, COVID deaths haven't followed the same pattern as COVID infections, and we can thank the vaccines for that, but the COVID situation in the UK is rather shit.

Joe

To be clear: *wearing* masks is good, on the whole, and doesn’t preclude also demanding sick pay etc. But *talking* about masks, demanding mask mandates, imposing mask mandates, lifting mask mandates, complaining about people not wearing masks, demanding crackdowns on non-mask wearers, talking up the effectiveness of masks, talking down the effectiveness of masks, creating debate points about whether primary school kids should wear masks etc. - all of that has, in practice and in fact, precluded demands for sick pay and other measures. There’s only so much bandwidth, only room for so many explanations as to why we are where we are, only so many concessions we think we can win.

Wearing masks/other measures: not mutually exclusive

Endless culture war bullshit about wearing masks/other measures: very much mutually exclusive.

 

[Joe P]

Sean,

I think this is where we differ fundamentally. I see wearing masks as an effective public health measure, not as a culture war thing.

I'm also a disciple of the Talking Heads: say something once, why say it again?

Joe

 

[tiggers]

Agreed. There is a very clear popularist-right thing about mask-denial and a distinct overlap into climate-science denial too. Johnson’s actions send exactly the same message as Trump’s words and are amplified by all manner of nutters from Rees Mogg to Desmond Sawyne, Piers Corbyn and the rest of them. It’s fruitloop central to my mind. As Joe states if masks weren’t effective they’d not be worn in medical and scientific environments. It annoys me people try to force a masks vs. “freedom”, masks vs. sick pay, masks vs borders or whatever argument.Science just doesn’t work like that and the simple facts are they help prevent transmission and good medical grade masks help protect the wearer. Obviously these other things all have huge benefits or impacts too, but they are not in any way mutually exclusive.

PS I say this as one of many millions of self employed the world over who has zero right to any sick pay of any type. If we get ill we live on savings or sell possessions. Such is reality.

Excellent post, I too find this constant 'either/or' argument about anything to do with Covid massively wearing. It's like the whole boosters versus vaccinating deprived nations. I think we should aspire to do both not one or the other.

 

[Seanm]

Sean,

I think this is where we differ fundamentally. I see wearing masks as an effective public health measure, not as a culture war thing.

I'm also a disciple of the Talking Heads: say something once, why say it again?

Joe

It’s both! I mean, demonstrably. This isn’t theory here, it’s just what’s happened.

 

[Seanm]

Excellent post, I too find this constant 'either/or' argument about anything to do with Covid massively wearing. It's like the whole boosters versus vaccinating deprived nations. I think we should aspire to do both not one or the other.

Would be great, but we live in the real world of limited resources, attention, priorities.

 

[gavreid]

Six cases identified in Scotland

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59457332

 

[tiggers]

Would be great, but we live in the real world of limited resources, attention, priorities.

I don't think it's so much to do with resources and priorities etc. It's just an argument of motivation versus the politics of greed. For instance if the virus mutated to the point where it kills a much higher percentage of people there would come a point when the West decided it ought to vaccinate the world ... that's the motivation. The same as people who 'cannot' give up smoking until they are told if they don't they will be dead within a year.... motivation. Unfortunately, as with so many things in the West, currently the politics are preventing any roll out to vaccinate the world as the benefit is not considered worth the expense. Resources are not the issue really as there is more than enough capacity to manufacture the vaccine if the patent waivers were issued. Deploying it would also be reasonably doable if the West's military were mobilised to undertake said operation. Priorities would need to be redrawn in to a longer term context, but it could be done. You're right of course as that would be an idealistic world, the real world is one of greed driven monetised healthcare and pharma... and it won't happen... yet!

 

[Spraggons Den]

mandryka,

It just pains me to see what's happening in the UK (and the US for that matter). I have lots of friends there — yes, mostly virtual fishy friends — but if what is happening there were happening here, people would be outraged. And I have no illusions that Canada has done a great job with COVID. You only have to look to New Zealand to see what competent leadership can achieve.

Joe

It was rumoured in the family that Grandpa once had sex with a Polar Bear whilst serving in the Merchant Navy in Canada. When I was old enough to feel sufficiently confident to ask him about it, his reply was 'Canada?' (Ivor Cutler, probably badly paraphrased).

 

[gavreid]

"Having ditched nearly all Covid protections, We have been running with high levels of disease for months. We have had over 5 million infections since July 1st. No other W. European country has had 2. We have had some 16,000 deaths. No other W.European country is approaching 10."

"Quite apart from the appalling harm that represents, it means the NHS is already cracking: staff exhausted, no spare capacity. We simply are not in a position to absorb any extra strain, whether that be due to a new variant, extra mixing over Christmas, or anything else."

https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1464893642565251072/photo/1

 

[Weekender]

Six cases identified in Scotland

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59457332

Least surprising news of the day: Community transmission.
"Some of the people identified have no travel history and have caught the virus variant in the community."

 

[Seanm]

I don't think it's so much to do with resources and priorities etc. It's just an argument of motivation versus the politics of greed. For instance if the virus mutated to the point where it kills a much higher percentage of people there would come a point when the West decided it ought to vaccinate the world ... that's the motivation. The same as people who 'cannot' give up smoking until they are told if they don't they will be dead within a year.... motivation. Unfortunately, as with so many things in the West, currently the politics are preventing any roll out to vaccinate the world as the benefit is not considered worth the expense. Resources are not the issue really as there is more than enough capacity to manufacture the vaccine if the patent waivers were issued. Deploying it would also be reasonably doable if the West's military were mobilised to undertake said operation. Priorities would need to be redrawn in to a longer term context, but it could be done. You're right of course as that would be an idealistic world, the real world is one of greed driven monetised healthcare and pharma... and it won't happen... yet!

Wouldn't disagree with any of that, I just think the politics/priorities are actually open to being shifted somewhat. But it will require journalists and prominent scientific figures to stop dutifully chasing every ball that's thrown for them, and us to stop rewarding them for it.

There's Stephen Reicher quoted upthread, for instance: definitely one of the good guys, but still fighting the Freedom Day wars, at a time when the situation is begging him to talk about international vaccination, healthcare resources, support to isolate. There's so much more to the situation than restrictive NPIs, including things that can be done immediately and cheaply, but everyone keeps being drawn on to Daily Mail terrain.

 

[Richard Lines]

Attention span lacking?

There does seem to be a tendency for many YouTube presentations to be far longer than they actually need to be. The very handy instructional ones are very often a case in point. I have little interest in the individual behind the presentation I just want the facts.

In the case of this particular video does it "NEED" to be over 24 minutes long to get the essentials across??? IMHO it doesn't.

Regards

Richard