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Coronavirus - the new strain XX

Discussion in 'off topic' started by gavreid, Jul 22, 2021.

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  1. wacko

    wacko pfm Member

    How much closer to Handmaid's Tale can we get ?
    Andrew C! likes this.
  2. Seanm

    Seanm pfm Member

    PHE report on waning immunity ought to be reassuring:


    See especially confounding factors:

    Meanwhile, Israel starts planning for a *4th* shot. Other high income countries will follow because "Just look at Israel!" It's bananas. Low income countries are never going to get their first dose.
    sean99 likes this.
  3. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    26 628 cases, 185 deaths and 658 admissions (12th)
  4. IanW

    IanW pfm Member

    Number of cases clearly dropping (usual provisos apply), with the number of hospital admissions following the same shape (delayed by 10 - 14 days). The number of deaths has got some artefacts in it, but does look to have a consistent gradient if the artefacts are ignored.

    With little remaining constant it will be very difficult for any data modellers to make sense of all this data (including the ONS data) but hopefully there is enough quality data in the UK and other countries to tease out some data to quantify some of the effects and changes.

    Whilst some of the predictions (there were wide variances on all the predictions) did suggest that the number of cases were likely to drop in September, I did not read any analysis of the modelling results as to why it could drop around the time the schools went back in England. Lots of material for Masters projects or PhDs, now or in the near future.
  5. clivem2

    clivem2 pfm Member

    Have you any idea what the vaccine supply situation is? I’ve no idea…nor how much is stockpiled in fridges.
  6. davidsrsb

    davidsrsb pfm Member

    With an expiry date that might be driving 3rd dose policy
    mandryka likes this.
  7. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    My daughter only went back on Friday for instance, it'll probably be two or three weeks before schools feed much into the numbers. Again I thought the sudden fall at the weekend (8000 between Friday and Saturday) highly unusual.
  8. Seanm

    Seanm pfm Member

    Gordon Brown reckons there’s now enough to go around:

    But IMO it will be a lot harder to get rich countries to release surplus once 4th, 5th, nth doses becomes the norm.

    England doesn’t release data on supply, although I think the other nations do. This guy figures it all out:
  9. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

    ONS models are not showing any fall in cases, so the mystery here is why hospital admissions are falling. I hadn’t noticed they were in fact.

    You mean they’re thinking that the choice is between throw them away or use them for a third dose? That would be extraordinary if true! We’ve all become jab happy, ready to be medicalised, presumably because of covid anxiety.
  10. ff1d1l

    ff1d1l pfm Member

  11. IanW

    IanW pfm Member

    As explained many times on here, the ONS data lags the number of reported cases for a few reasons and will always over estimate when the number of cases is dropping.

    Hospital admissions are increasing, and continue to follow the number of cases, albeit with around a 2 week lag.
    tiggers likes this.
  12. mandryka

    mandryka pfm Member

    Ah right, I misunderstood you about hospital admissions. I just don’t think that the positives have been a good indication of prevalence since the start of summer, they are too dependent on the way people use tests - which is effected by things like the pingdemic, the way delta symptoms don’t line up with the government’s recognised covid symptoms, complacency due to vaccination, the mildness of covid in the vaccinated population etc.
  13. paulfromcamden

    paulfromcamden Baffled

    What are the limits on how much vaccine can be produced?
  14. Mullardman

    Mullardman Moderately extreme...

    A couple of things.

    Who is dying? Are they especially vulnerable jabbed folks? Are they unvaccinated? Old? Younger?
    Anyone know where or if this data is available?

    100+ deaths per day is 36000+ per annum. Would we tolerate this from any other cause when it might be reduced by compulsory mitigation measures?

    Many people now saying 'We'll all get it eventually.' Simply dividing daily cases into the population according to my arithmetic projects that outcome in very roughly 4 years. Difficult to know what actually signifies given levels of vaccination.
  15. Seeker_UK

    Seeker_UK Booyakashah, check out my avatar...

    Mullardman likes this.
  16. IanW

    IanW pfm Member

    Both data sources have errors.

    The ONS gives a good general picture and is the most accurate for absolute numbers, but the errors in this data means that it is no use to tell whether the numbers are going down unless they are falling quickly (and even then the rate of fall is going to under estimated). Whereas the number of test cases, whilst having errors for the reasons that you have given, will indicate trends over small time periods more effectively.

    Whilst there is no way to validate any combined model, knowledge of the error noise models could be used to create a combined estimate from the 2 datasets, that had a reduced error content.
    tiggers and mandryka like this.
  17. gavreid

    gavreid pfm Member

    Bring in measures soon or risk 7,000 daily Covid hospitalisations, Sage warns

    Modellers on the Sage committee expect cases to rise in the coming months after almost all restrictions were lifted this summer, documents show. Daily hospitalisations could plausibly peak at 7,000 in England next month, far surpassing the winter peak, which reached 4,500 UK-wide, according to the updated modelling. Currently about 1,000 people with Covid are being admitted to UK hospital wards each day.

    A consensus document from the modellers, written on 8 September, says that rather than the sharp peak anticipated at the end of the summer, hospitalisations could peak next month and remain high into the winter.
    IanW and tiggers like this.
  18. davidsrsb

    davidsrsb pfm Member

    Many, capacity of the factories, chemical and process consumables, the little bottles, cold chain distribution capacity, syringes
  19. tiggers

    tiggers pfm Member

    As I said the other day this government (and some of the population judging by some of the posts on here) have learnt nothing from the last 18 months. It's a truly depressing situation when you have all the evidence in the world presented over and over again and yet we are still governed by people with their head partially in the sand and their eye partially on their bank balance who seem happy to 'wait and see' again and again with the consequences being a large number of avoidable deaths. On top of that they will never be properly held accountable for it!
    Debs, hc25036, ff1d1l and 5 others like this.
  20. wacko

    wacko pfm Member

    Of the larger European countries latest deaths: UK 185, Spain 155, France 94, Germany 69, Italy 48 and Poland 8.
    AFAIK Europe is more open to travel etc than the UK. So is our high figure explained by different definition of Covid death ? Different vaccine ? Wave timing ?
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