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Coronavirus - the new strain XVIII

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gavreid said:
7 540 cases today, 6 deaths and 121 admissions (6th). Ouch. Bear in mind that half term last week should have been a dampener too.
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I heard on the radio this morning that the average length of stay in hospital is significantly shorter now that it was in the last wave. Hoping that means the deaths won’t ramp up.
 
mandryka said:
That's good news I think. If you look at the period when cases were at a similar level with α, admissions were significantly higher. Unfortunately we don't know the vaccination status of the admissions but still, it's good news.

And I think (I may be wrong) that δ is more likely to lead to admissions in the unprotected population.
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WRT hospitalisations I don't think it's good at all: it's a lot like previous waves according to:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351593664692224?s=20

mandryka said:
Eight in 10 England adults now have coronavirus antibodies, ONS figures show
Eight in 10 England adults now have coronavirus antibodies, ONS figures show - Mirror Online

I'm sure there's a very boring answer to this question, but how can the above be true and we don't have herd immunity? Is it that the presence of antibodies does not imply immunity?
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Bloody kids.
 
mandryka said:
Well, cases are growing exponentially.

Admissions are a linear function of cases.

So admissions will grow at an exponential rate.
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I'll update the admissions graph again at the weekend. Burnham said today that hospitalisations are rising now in GM.
 
gavreid said:
I'll update the admissions graph again at the weekend. Burnham said today that hospitalisations are rising now in GM.
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The interesting thing is to see whether you can see what the function from cases to admissions looks like. And then track that as more people are fully vaccinated.

There you go -- I've given you a nice little non-trivial project!
 
mandryka said:
The interesting thing is to see whether you can see what the function from cases to admissions looks like. And then track that as more people are fully vaccinated.

There you go -- I've given you a nice little non-trivial project!
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It's following the yellow line I fitted the other day but numbers are still very small. I want to see when that 100 becomes 200...
 
I do wonder why some of you on here get out of bed in the morning? We really have little say in this so let’s just try & make the best of it.
 
The oddest thing about online forums is the member who joins in specifically to tell people to keep quiet.
 
gavreid said:
It's following the yellow line I fitted the other day but numbers are still very small. I want to see when that 100 becomes 200...
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It would be great if it reached it sometime never, **but** I have a feeling it will be rather sooner than later.
Just such a damned shame after so many months of doing the right thing by so many.
Not sure if I want to see the updated graph or not, but all good information is useful.
 
Surely it makes sense that we are getting more positives because we are doing way more testing. If that’s the case we must be getting a lot more people showing negative but that doesn’t sell in the media. Just trying to put forward a more positive way of looking at it.
 
puddlesplasher said:
Surely it makes sense that we are getting more positives because we are doing way more testing. If that’s the case we must be getting a lot more people showing negative but that doesn’t sell in the media. Just trying to put forward a more positive way of looking at it.
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Im all for being positive, (if accurate) but while more *may* be being tested (from when?) but then unfortunately the rate entering hospital is also rising, at big rates % wise. OK - numbers are currently not big, but we have all seen where that leads, pretty damned quickly. Thats not being pessimistic, just more realistic as far as I'm concerned.
 
The planned Euros Fanzone in Glasgow seems at odds with the increased risk presented by the Delta variant, especially in the central belt where cases are high relative to the bulk of the UK.
 
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