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Coronavirus - the new strain XVII

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John Phillips said:
The body text, if someone reads it and not just the headline, is well written. It points out that the incidence of blood clots in vaccine recipients is no different from the incidence in the general population. So there's no obvious smoking gun.

The problem I see is that we appear to be doing the science in a very public context.

That's understandable in the circumstances. However, investigations to establish whether the incidence of blood clots is just normal random correlation; or whether there is some causation involved are normally conducted in smaller circles, where expert consensus can be carefully established based on the data. Reporting scientific investigations in public via newspapers may fuel unnecessary anxiety and antipathy to vaccination.
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The story is that Denmark (and also Austria and some other countries) has suspended vaccinations while they investigate for 2 weeks. That is on going - do you suggest that the news be censored? Maybe it's been a duff batch, or maybe it's nothing to be concerned about. Clearly it might take months to determine if the incidence of blood clotting has increased over the norm. For example stroke in the under 50s are rare, relatively speaking. However strokes are a known symptom of covid - is it due to an overactive immune response in some people? If so, can the vaccine trigger a similar response? It's not implausible at all. It's easy for people to be dismissive when the 'obvious' outcome is what you might be hoping for... I agree, the piece is well-written.
 
Just before the AZ jab, I was asked by the healthcare practitioners this morning whether I was on any type of blood thinning medication - not sure whether
related?
 
John Phillips said:
The body text, if someone reads it and not just the headline, is well written. It points out that the incidence of blood clots in vaccine recipients is no different from the incidence in the general population. So there's no obvious smoking gun.
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Devil is in the detail, as always. At least the headline is fair, on this occasion.
 
Written in haste so have edited for clarity....

Also need to consider risk vs benefit. Is the risk of dying from a blood clot due to the vaccine less than dying from COVID?

A quick back of the envelope calculation (ie completely non-scientific and probably wrong) suggests in the UK you are 300 times more likely to die from COVID than to get (and not necessarily die from) a blood clot due to the vaccine.
 
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hc25036 said:
Also need to consider risk vs benefit. Is the risk of dying from a blood clot less than dying from COVID?

A quick back of the envelope calculation (ie completely non-scientific and probably wrong) suggests in the UK you are 300 times more likely to die from COVID than to get (and not necessarily die from) a blood clot.
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That can't be right, hc. Heart attacks, strokes, other embolisms, it's the biggest killer, nevermind the long-term consequences for survivors...
 
6759 cases today (greater than at this time last week), 181 deaths and 501 admissions (8th). Hospitalisations updated below. The data are still falling with an 18 day half life (give or take a day or so). There's certainly been no marked change in the past two or three weeks as more people have been vaccinated.

 
gavreid said:
6759 cases today (greater than at this time last week), 181 deaths and 501 admissions (8th). Hospitalisations updated below. The data are still falling with an 18 day half life (give or take a day or so). There's certainly been no marked change in the past two or three weeks as more people have been vaccinated.

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With the increased number of daily tests (lateral flow and PCR (I though that the data was supposed to separated to allow more detailed analysis, but I just see a headline figure) then an increase in week on week daily positive tests is likely to be seen.

The hospital admissions decay curve does look very consistent, and is supported by your simple data model. The gov website data daily update suggest similar with its weekly comparison to the previous 7 days, albeit with a possible increase in gradient (too early to really say).

Maybe we are just on the cusp of seeing the effect of the vaccine programme for the global data after having seen in it for the over 80's data vs the under 64 data over a week ago.



As more and more people are vaccinated then we should see a global change in the data instead of just for the over 80s, but it still looks as if we are on the edge of seeing this.
 
Cases have only risen slightly from this time last week and that will be because testing has been ramped up massively. The overall downward trend in cases continues and the most important figures, deaths and hospitalisations continue to fall. Nothing worrying about this, even though some of the doomsayers on Twitter can’t resist blaming schools (they’ve only been open fully for four days) and saying it puts the lockdown roadmap into question.
 
Is it not time to ignore number of cases unless they are mutations of concern ? All efforts into vaccinations now that UK has enough stock and monitor decrease in severe cases/deaths ?
 
wacko said:
Is it not time to ignore number of cases unless they are mutations of concern ? All efforts into vaccinations now that UK has enough stock and monitor decrease in severe cases/deaths ?
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Far too early to say that...
 
Should be a surge in vaccination ahead of May 17th which is probably the highest risk relaxation of restrictions. If we can get 40+ group done by then that would be very positive.

I think external business meetings will be frowned upon much before June, rail travel unlikely to get much above 40% of pervious levels this year.
 
IanW said:
The hospital admissions decay curve does look very consistent, and is supported by your simple data model. The gov website data daily update suggest similar with its weekly comparison to the previous 7 days, albeit with a possible increase in gradient (too early to really say).
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I've been expecting an increase in rate to match that in the case data, and as you say there might be bit of a suggestion of that, but today's point is back on the curve which we shouldn't really expect to see if the decline is accelerating. Hospital numbers are all that matter in the end, the case numbers are just a sample.
 
gavreid said:
I think that's for bleeding afterwards...
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According to my daughter its because you need to hold your arm longer if you are on warfarin/blood thinners so that you don’t get a haematoma.

My son is on warfarin he has been on it for about ten years, he had a pulmonary embolism when he was about 22 so he should be okay if the vaccine does cause blood clots.
 
hc25036 said:
Also need to consider risk vs benefit. Is the risk of dying from a blood clot less than dying from COVID?

A quick back of the envelope calculation (ie completely non-scientific and probably wrong) suggests in the UK you are 300 times more likely to die from COVID than to get (and not necessarily die from) a blood clot.
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One of the more serious COVID symptoms is blood clotting
 
Web inventor Sir Tim Berners-Lee warns of widening digital divide https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-56367719

I found this a real issue with some primary schools, who were not able to offer fully live interactive online learning sessions due to lack of IT or poor internet speeds. I’ve posted it here as it’s a real consequence of COVID and the restrictions, leading to home schooling etc.
 
The Manaus mutation is prevalent across Brazil now and hospitals are at capacity. Has Bolsonaro got anything to say ?
 
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