clifftaylor
Absolutely retired!
The article suggests very strongly that the people involved knew exactly what they were doing - I'm not sure that engaging with them is what's needed.
Coronavirus - the new strain XV
- Thread starter Seeker_UK
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Tony L
Administrator
There is. Certainly a fairly concentrated effort around here (Greater Manc) to engage our substantial Asian/Muslim community, some of whom seem skeptical despite obviously being statistically at far higher risk.
Brian
Eating fat, staying slim
Spot on Tony and with the added bonus of being an unusually interesting comment on tw*tter. They’re going to get away with it though.
gintonic
50 shades of grey pussy cats
yes not the only community i fear. I hear second hand that the the local Pentecostal Church has been done three time for the same, and they had an antivax banner outside their premises.
Darwin had a theory about all this I seem to recall.
I watched the Indie Sage report today as I have been interested for a couple of weeks now as to why the React and ONS data paints a different picture to the https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ data.
https://www.independentsage.org/weekly-briefing-29th-january-2021/
The .gov.uk data is pretty self consistent with cases continuing to drop at 10k a week (linear gradient for 3 weeks now) and the following indicators, hospital admissions, deaths following the normal timeline pattern. With the number of tests being at a level that the majority of positive cases are being detected (unlike earlier in January when positive test were around 10 to 15% of actual tests (so the actual case numbers were likely to be much higher), we are down to around 4% of tests being positive). Of course there are further complications with 2 out of 3 cases being asymptomatic, but as long as that remains consistent and people go and can get tests easily and do so, then comparison back in time should have some validity.
From what I have read, the ONS data is based on a much smaller sample size across a week of the same people and so there is consistency in the data. And the normal case data etc is based on a much bigger sample size of people who have gone for a test for various reasons. So comparing the data is difficult as they are different with different uncertainties and biases.
In the Indie Sage report they compared some REACT and ONS data with .gov.uk data and said that they do show different things. They proposed that this could be due to an aspect of the more detailed data where the REACT and ONS data showed the new strain levelling out, the old strain decreasing and a significant number of indeterminate strain increasing (basically people who have Covid in their body for longer and are picked up by the test as a positive). It will be interesting to see further analysis of this.
https://www.independentsage.org/weekly-briefing-29th-january-2021/
The .gov.uk data is pretty self consistent with cases continuing to drop at 10k a week (linear gradient for 3 weeks now) and the following indicators, hospital admissions, deaths following the normal timeline pattern. With the number of tests being at a level that the majority of positive cases are being detected (unlike earlier in January when positive test were around 10 to 15% of actual tests (so the actual case numbers were likely to be much higher), we are down to around 4% of tests being positive). Of course there are further complications with 2 out of 3 cases being asymptomatic, but as long as that remains consistent and people go and can get tests easily and do so, then comparison back in time should have some validity.
From what I have read, the ONS data is based on a much smaller sample size across a week of the same people and so there is consistency in the data. And the normal case data etc is based on a much bigger sample size of people who have gone for a test for various reasons. So comparing the data is difficult as they are different with different uncertainties and biases.
In the Indie Sage report they compared some REACT and ONS data with .gov.uk data and said that they do show different things. They proposed that this could be due to an aspect of the more detailed data where the REACT and ONS data showed the new strain levelling out, the old strain decreasing and a significant number of indeterminate strain increasing (basically people who have Covid in their body for longer and are picked up by the test as a positive). It will be interesting to see further analysis of this.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
I don't follow the detail of cases but I can say two things. Firstly the reported numbers dip at the weekends and increase throughout the following week in a cyclic fashion and the pattern is consistent week to week. More importantly, we know that people don't get tested if they can't afford the consequences so the React survey, for example, picks up a more complete cross section, but probably misses the regional peaks due to undersampling, and is also quite a long way behind.
ps like the Aston microphone that Alice Roberts has
paulfromcamden
Baffled
Seanm
pfm Member
Easily as dumb and as dangerous as anything Trump has ever said:
https://twitter.com/chassnews/status/1355173315703410690?s=21
https://twitter.com/chassnews/status/1355173315703410690?s=21
gavreid
Pretty Words...
Haha! Yes, I noticed that too when she posted something on Twitter
I've had one for about 3 years now. They have a bit of a treble lift so you can't stack tracks very well but very nice for the money. Built like a tank too.
gavreid
Pretty Words...
Always was - a dangerous populist. Thick as two short ones to boot.
Seeker_UK
Feelin' nearly faded as my jeans
That's just a bit of a pout on behalf of the EU.
"We do not need you Eeengleesh AstraZeneca vaccine. It smells of elderberries..."
Big Tabs
looking backwards, going forwards
That's just a bit of a pout on behalf of the EU.
"We do not need you Eeengleesh AstraZeneca vaccine. It smells of elderberries..."
“We already got one...”
gavreid
Pretty Words...
I fart in your general direction
paulfromcamden
Baffled
Curves in this weeks ONS survey not looking very down-pointy...
gavreid
Pretty Words...
No, and not 30 k cases today either - but it was 40k last week. Nevertherless, the average trend is still downwards. Having said that, the hospitalisations seem to be levelling for the past few days but its so hard to infer anything with the fortnight delay.
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