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Coronavirus - the new strain XIX

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Not following closely but the trend of cases seems to be falling slightly the last few days while deaths and hospitalisations are rising. As case numbers have been focussed on by the media recently has Boris been reviewing Trump's instruction to reduce testing? Perhaps it's the only part of the equation that he can, or is interested in, controlling.

It's hard to say, schools are out in Scotland and Wales now and partly in England and students are long gone. The recent figures from greater Manchester certainly do not suggest a drop in case numbers, for example.

0_Coronavirus-rates2021-07-20.jpg
 
Long covid in kids is set to be the main battleground for at least the next couple of weeks, I think, as ISage/The Citizens campaign to delegitimise the JCVI advice on vaccinating teens. It's tailor-made for science war stuff because it's a site of maximum anxiety (the idea of children being affected in some unknown way is genuinely frightening) and limited knowledge, in an area - children and covid - where the picture is mostly pretty clear. There are also a number of contradictory studies doing the rounds so that both "sides" (and again it's depressing that we have sides here) can claim the evidence. Anyone who wants to take a position should cast their net pretty wide, IMO, and not get fixated on the first paper they're presented with.

It's also important to bear in mind that children's response to Covid is in most cases so robust that they are almost completely asymptomatic so it's possible to underestimate how many have been infected - and overestimate how common long covid is. This thread explains:

https://twitter.com/ShamezLadhani/status/1417765913198223366?s=20

It's also a good example of the science war brewing on this issue: check out the exchange between Ladhani and Deepta Gurdasani (of course!) down thread, which each claiming various studies to have been debunked, discredited etc. An awful way to carry out scientific debate IMV but that's the new model, sadly.

Just on a personal note I do know of one child who has been badly affected by long covid (now recovered) and I was worried about my own son for a while (still am a bit). It's definitely a real thing. But I'm on various parent gossip circuits and I've only heard of this one case.
 
For the @Colin Barron 's and fellow fun loving Brexiteers Irelands fully vaccinated rate is now at 64% compared to the latest UK rate I see of 56%. Not crowing but I do remember the noise about how somehow the speed of vaccine roll out was somehow because of Brexit. I advised at the time that this was a long road with many twists and turns and here we are today with things having levelled up very quickly.

My tuppence worth, If I were Spain, Greece and Italy I would have banned family holidays. Anybody with young children who feels they have to bring them to the Costa's this year are irresponsible.
The smaller countries have caught up; the Germans have also done well and have passed the UK total number of jabs.
 
BTW, just on that brain article above: brain stuff is another anxiety-inducing trigger issue, and ISage were really hammering it a couple of weeks ago. For context and balance this article is helpful:

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2021/jun...ain-tissue-correlation-doesnt-prove-causation

Again, just on a personal note, I did have memory issues for a while and when I went for my long covid clinical assessment I scored *just* above "impaired" on the cognitive test (some will say this explains a lot). I'm not dismissing any of this. I do feel this area has improved for me (I did better on a later test), and I also recall similar experiences of "brain fog" following bad colds.
 
In principle, mutations (and this is much better known for bacteria) are more likely to arise in sick, but partially-treated individuals.

That's not how it works. Bacteria and viruses are very different entities. Bacteria are alive and self replicating, viruses are not - they require a host cell which their genome subverts into making more virions.

In the case of bacteria, mutations are driven by environmental pressures (eg anti-biotics). Generally speaking such genetic changes are the result of 'Plasmids', that is to say tightly wound pieces of bacterial DNA that exist out there in Nature which become integrated into the bacterial DNA. Often, these plasmids confer multiple anti-biotic resistances.

The reason (some) viruses mutate is very different, and is the result of chance. Generally it occurs during viral genome replication from 'errors' getting built in to the genome.

In the case of Corona viruses, these are RNA viruses that replicate within the host cell cytoplasm. They are not, therefore, subject to the 'checking enzymes' extant within the cell nucleus. While they do have what could be termed 'check sums' built into the genome, these may not necessarily be robust, especially in viruses that are zoonotic.

There are 7 Corona viruses known to infect humans. The first 4 cause common cold like symptoms and don't appear to mutate. Then came SARS-CoV-1 in 2002 which, again, didn't mutate, or if it did, the mutation caused it to become non infectious to humans. Similarly MERS-CoV-1 in 2012.

SARS-CoV-2 is a very different beast. It has already mutated 13 times since the appearance of the original L Strain in China, with each new strain being more transmissible than the last. It also appears that the Delta (Indian) Strain incubates in around 2 days less than the S Strain that we saw in UK at the begining of last year.

Thus, the more this virus replicates, the more it will mutate.
 
That's not how it works. Bacteria and viruses are very different entities. Bacteria are alive and self replicating, viruses are not - they require a host cell which their genome subverts into making more virions.

In the case of bacteria, mutations are driven by environmental pressures (eg anti-biotics). Generally speaking such genetic changes are the result of 'Plasmids', that is to say tightly wound pieces of bacterial DNA that exist out there in Nature which become integrated into the bacterial DNA. Often, these plasmids confer multiple anti-biotic resistances.

The reason (some) viruses mutate is very different, and is the result of chance. Generally it occurs during viral genome replication from 'errors' getting built in to the genome.

In the case of Corona viruses, these are RNA viruses that replicate within the host cell cytoplasm. They are not, therefore, subject to the 'checking enzymes' extant within the cell nucleus. While they do have what could be termed 'check sums' built into the genome, these may not necessarily be robust, especially in viruses that are zoonotic.

There are 7 Corona viruses known to infect humans. The first 4 cause common cold like symptoms and don't appear to mutate. Then came SARS-CoV-1 in 2002 which, again, didn't mutate, or if it did, the mutation caused it to become non infectious to humans. Similarly MERS-CoV-1 in 2012.

SARS-CoV-2 is a very different beast. It has already mutated 13 times since the appearance of the original L Strain in China, with each new strain being more transmissible than the last. It also appears that the Delta (Indian) Strain incubates in around 2 days less than the S Strain that we saw in UK at the begining of last year.

Thus, the more this virus replicates, the more it will mutate.

Thank you debs. I am a PhD biochemist/microbiologist and Dr(Mrs) hc25036 is a microbiologist/biochemist. You seem to have slightly misread my probably oversimplified response to a different question!
 
Turns out the Covid Memorial Wall was a collab between Led By Donkeys and the Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice group.

https://nationalcovidmemorialwall.org/
Led By Donkeys said:
Hello friends,

152,837 individually hand-painted hearts.

10,000 paint pens.

460 metres of stone wall.

1,500 volunteers.

10 days of installation in every weather from snow to blazing sunshine.

Most of the time when we do stuff you’ll soon see it on social media or in the newspapers or on TV. But sometimes when we’re working on a project, we don’t tell anyone what we’re up to.

One such project was the National Covid Memorial Wall.

We haven’t talked about it publicly until this week, but the ‘wall of hearts’ was a collaboration between us and the inspiring Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice group.

You’ve probably seen it in the media. Hearts cover half a kilometre of stone wall on the tree-lined Albert Embankment, facing the Houses of Parliament. It’s an outpouring of love and grief that records every single life lost to Covid in the UK. Every heart on the memorial wall was painted by volunteers, many of whom had lost family or friends to the virus. Working every day in every kind of weather, clutching paint pens, together we slowly worked our way down the wall until - ten days later - the last heart was drawn.

Working with the families group, it was back in January that we conceived the idea of a people-led memorial to those we’ve lost, one that would face Parliament as a permanent reminder to politicians of all stripes that the UK’s colossal death toll is so much more than just a statistic. That staggering number represents a wave of incredible grief that has touched every part of the country, but is also a cry for accountability and justice.

After rising public pressure on Boris Johnson to visit the memorial, he eventually went on 28th April, under cover of darkness in a cowardly bid to avoid meeting the families. A few days later in the Commons he said “like many others across the Chamber, I was deeply moved when I visited the Covid Memorial Wall opposite Parliament”. In the same speech he finally agreed to the inquiry the families were pressing for, though predictably he’s now doing all he can to delay it.

We really hope that you manage to make it to the wall itself and find time to walk its length and reflect on what we as a nation have lost. For those who can’t, we’ve built a website to host the 460m long wall, it’s at nationalcovidmemorialwall.org. You can scroll along it while listening to the stories of the families who painted it. Please consider plugging in your headphones and giving it some time.

Finally, we really want to thank those of you who continue to support Led By Donkeys. We spent a huge amount of our time - and your generous campaign contributions - on the memorial wall. We bought 10,000 high-end art pens (Posca 8Ks if you’re interested), masonry paint, scrubbing brushes, signs, lanterns, flowers, hi-vis vests and facemasks to ensure that the 1,500 volunteers involved were as safe and secure as possible. It was an epic undertaking and we couldn’t be more proud of creating a space for both grief and accountability.

Those of you who contribute to LBD helped make this happen. We hope you also feel proud about being part of it,

LBDx

Absolute legends and a force for good.
 
Bl**dy hell! It'll be alright though, Sean's on the case ;)
If this is true, and like a lot of the stuff you’re going to hear about kids over the next few weeks it probably isn’t, from what I’ve read it’s likely to be down to RSV and other endemic diseases: lockdown messed up the usual seasonal patterns. Probably *not* evidence that covid has become more dangerous to children. In the end what do I know but get ready for more stories like this courtesy of the iSage amplification machine.

If it’s true, and it is down to other illnesses, how to address it? I don’t know what to suggest except to focus more attention on increasing NHS capacity and the unintended consequences of lockdown. As ever. If only there were some kind of organisation with scientific credentials and media clout that might draw attention to these and other issues.
 
Oh, just "other respiratory viruses", no worries then.
The point is that’s a real issue, and an ongoing one. So that’s where the pressure should be, not on fantasy problems - Covid suddenly becoming dangerous to children - and fantasy solutions: vaccinating teens against Covid, which is the aim here and why stories like this are suddenly doing the rounds, is not going to help with these other respiratory viruses!

It’s just “flooding the zone with shit”, as Steve Bannon put it: create anxiety, confusion, distrust. It works for the right and absolutely nobody else. It works for the right whoever does it! This kind of stuff is a gift to Boris.
 
Can you spell out why for me?
Boris thrives on chaos, the left doesn’t, as a general principle. Certainly the NHS doesn’t. More specifically the focus on fantasy issues distracts from actual issues: the fact that the NHS is underfunded and paediatric intensive care is regularly overwhelmed. Finally, criticism of the government on the basis of false claims like this discredits criticism based on actual fact. It’s all good, as far as the Tories are concerned.
 
The point is that’s a real issue, and an ongoing one. So that’s where the pressure should be, not on fantasy problems - Covid suddenly becoming dangerous to children - and fantasy solutions: vaccinating teens against Covid, which is the aim here and why stories like this are suddenly doing the rounds, is not going to help with these other respiratory viruses!

I have a vested interest in the kids/vaccine discussion since my teenage daughter has a significant dairy allergy and is anaphylactic - so at huge risk. However, it seems slightly odd to me that we have an apparently large upsurge in kids being admitted to hospital with breathing problems whilst at the same time, a few "sources" on Twitter claiming its "Nothing To Do With Covid." It chimes with the "Nothing To Do With Brexit" type denials we've seen over the last few years. One Doctor in one hospital probably isn't an ultimate authority and I'd sooner keep my eye on the situation.
 
I have a vested interest in the kids/vaccine discussion since my teenage daughter has a significant dairy allergy and is anaphylactic - so at huge risk. However, it seems slightly odd to me that we have an apparently large upsurge in kids being admitted to hospital with breathing problems whilst at the same time, a few "sources" on Twitter claiming its "Nothing To Do With Covid." It chimes with the "Nothing To Do With Brexit" type denials we've seen over the last few years. One Doctor in one hospital probably isn't an ultimate authority and I'd sooner keep my eye on the situation.
It’s not that paediatric intensive care is overwhelmed with patients suffering from other diseases (although this is coming down the pipe), it’s that it’s not overwhelmed: the Tweet was bullshit. The “denialists” you mention are PICU paediatricians who are in a position to know.

Keep an eye on the situation by all means - and look at what’s happening in the Netherlands and New Zealand with non-Covid respiratory illnesses, and what happens every winter to the NHS, if you want to get a sense of the real problem, but don’t buy into all this paranoid conspiracy stuff.
 
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