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Coronavirus - the new strain X

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How many people will it take to do half a million tests a day? That's a huge undertaking. It wouldn't surprise me if only one out of five or so samples was tested, the rest binned and given a negative result. That would fit in with the herd immunity that I feel were being pushed into.

Two or three more big labs worth - it's a hideously expensive undertaking if you're also paying the huge profit margins of the contractors and of the subs...
 
The idea that it is a test more like a pregnancy test. No external processing needed.

This does not exist as yet.

That doesn't bother Johnson, making stuff up.

See also 'alternative arrangements' for the Irish border which the Tories now admit is at least 3 years away (they said it would be ready in a year in 2016.)

Stephen

We're being led by an 'alternative government'.
 
From a distance enough UK voters just dig the Tories.

I'm not sure that's true - Labour hasn't managed to shake off the (unfair) blame for the banking collapse in the eyes of many middle aged and older voters. Much like many of the same people still believe that the unions were to blame for the economic problems of the 1970s, and not the impact of the oil crisis and the hostility of the City toward the Government (investment strikes). Both of those themes highlight Labour's internal compromises, like the kid at school who continues to soak up the bullying without saying anything in the hope that it will relent.
 
The pathetic "government" has now announced further restrictions in my area... which are of course as much use as a chocolate teapot and will make ZERO difference. They will be completely ignored.... by me as well as everyone else.
In effect the only difference is that the pubs will shut one hour earlier.....
 
3395 cases, 21 deaths as Harding says that demand for tests is running at four times capacity. Can we just assume that positive tests would be four times higher?

It's interesting that the number of tests processed is closing in on capacity - but they seem to have changed the way it's presented and something fishy is going on - it's been limited only to pillars 1 and 2, excluding 3 and 4 completely????? This appears to be retrospective too.
 
The pathetic "government" has now announced further restrictions in my area... which are of course as much use as a chocolate teapot and will make ZERO difference. They will be completely ignored.... by me as well as everyone else.
In effect the only difference is that the pubs will shut one hour earlier.....

What would help is to restrict Johnson, Handcock et. al. from making any policies surrounding Covid.

Stephen
 
3395 cases, 21 deaths as Harding says that demand for tests is running at four times capacity. Can we just assume that positive tests would be four times higher?

Every claim the Government make regarding number of tests, includes antibody tests, research tests, posted tests (but not necessarily analysed) and faulty tests.

It probably includes pregnancy and driving tests for all we know.

When their figures were debunked, they were bragging we had the capacity for 300K+ tests rather than actually doing the testing.

The media rarely unpick this and just accept the Government's figures (in headlines anyhow).

Stephen
 
3395 cases, 21 deaths as Harding says that demand for tests is running at four times capacity. Can we just assume that positive tests would be four times higher?

It's interesting that the number of tests processed is closing in on capacity - but they seem to have changed the way it's presented and something fishy is going on - it's been limited only to pillars 1 and 2, excluding 3 and 4 completely????? This appears to be retrospective too.

I think we can safely assume they're many times higher, the case numbers are pretty much meaningless as they have been from the start. As I have said before just using simple maths and looking at the death toll there must have been 4 million cases in the UK already.
 
I think we can safely assume they're many times higher, the case numbers are pretty much meaningless as they have been from the start. As I have said before just using simple maths and looking at the death toll there must have been 4 million cases in the UK already.

Absolutely but they're all we have. I'm keeping a close watch on hospitalisations, we'll see what's in the weekly summary tomorrow.

Statistcally the ONS modelling had cases running at 4 times the measured results back in August - but is it really now 16 times?
 
They will be completely ignored.... by me as well as everyone else

You rebel! I’m guessing if it were a communist govt imposing such rules, you would adhere. Mind you, if you didn’t, you’d be shot anyway. Maybe in times like this, a dictatorship is a better option, on the left or right.
 
Do we have figures for hospital admissions, current bed/ventilator capacity etc? I’m still deeply suspicious about the ‘28 days from a test’ thing. My gut feeling is they are a bunch of twisters/shysters and that is a way to brush a pile of dead people under the carpet. It will be interesting to start looking at excess deaths figures again.
 
Statistcally the ONS modelling had cases running at 4 times the measured results back in August - but is it really now 16 times?

It could well be, as you know a huge percentage of people with the virus will have no or very very mild symptoms.
 
Do we have figures for hospital admissions, current bed/ventilator capacity etc? I’m still deeply suspicious about the ‘28 days from a test’ thing. My gut feeling is they are a bunch of twisters/shysters and that is a way to brush a pile of dead people under the carpet. It will be interesting to start looking at excess deaths figures again.

Yes hospital admission are begining to move, of course deaths come 3 weeks later (deaths are beginning to rise too). There are 998 now in hospital (doubled in a fortnight) and 124 on ventillation (also double). We'd predict maybe 10% of those in hospital will die in due course.

Daily admissions (England only)

1/9 58

10/9 143

13/9 153

15/9 194 (the last given)


Daily admissions were running at 1000 per day in late March so that's what we're looking for
 
Trajectory pretty clear then, albeit fairly manageable at present. Worth reminding ourselves of the ‘excess deaths’ peak in March/April, as this may be what is coming again. As ever the FT tracker is an excellent reference.

PS It is just so hard to get a handle on it with the ever changing and obviously inadequate test data throughout the pandemic. To my unscientifically trained mind the excess deaths and hospital beds/ventilator stats are by far the most useful metrics. I guess we just have no idea how many were ‘positive’ back in March as the government were so far off the case there was no testing as such. It is a hopelessly incomplete dataset.
 
Trajectory pretty clear then, albeit fairly manageable at present. Worth reminding ourselves of the ‘excess deaths’ peak in March/April, as this may be what is coming again. As ever the FT tracker is an excellent reference.

PS It is just so hard to get a handle on it with the ever changing and obviously inadequate test data throughout the pandemic. To my unscientifically trained mind the excess deaths and hospital beds/ventilator stats are by far the most useful metrics. I guess we just have no idea how many were ‘positive’ back in March as the government were so far off the case there was no testing as such. It is a hopelessly incomplete dataset.

Excess deaths are reported in the weekly PHE summaries. Now is the time to get a grip...
 
Some better news

"The report, released by the Royal Society’s Science in Emergencies Tasking: Covid-19 group, reveals that while the genome of the virus has shown some mutations, these do not appear to be making the virus more dangerous.

Indeed such changes could actually be useful, with the team noting they can be harnessed to probe the spread of Covid-19 in hospitals, schools and other settings."

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...0801094db19e16#block-5f6389c98f0801094db19e16

Not so good the, French testing system seems close to collapse too

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...0862c6e36e82a7#block-5f637be28f0862c6e36e82a7

Spike in cases around Nice (start of the Tour de France) and Lyon

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...0801094db19e0b#block-5f6389008f0801094db19e0b
 
I'm not sure that's true - Labour hasn't managed to shake off the (unfair) blame for the banking collapse in the eyes of many middle aged and older voters. Much like many of the same people still believe that the unions were to blame for the economic problems of the 1970s, and not the impact of the oil crisis and the hostility of the City toward the Government (investment strikes). Both of those themes highlight Labour's internal compromises, like the kid at school who continues to soak up the bullying without saying anything in the hope that it will relent.

As always hope you are 100% correct will gladly eat humble pie and rejoice from the rooftops if you are right.
 
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