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Coronavirus - the new strain X

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Not just that, but the theories are self-contradictory and continually changing. First, coronavirus is a hoax. Next, it's not a hoax, but a bio-weapon invented in China. Then, it's an artificial disease created by Bill Gates, whose aim is to vaccinate everyone to a) make lots of money and b) introduce some sort of tracking device to help control the populace when the Bad Guys take over. The sheer unfeasibility of such theories is mind-boggling, but, as you say, ignorance and stupidity combined have made them unstoppable and self-perpetuating.
 
Not at all; it's all done and dusted at an earlier business case stage. It's all to easy to disregard non-financial costs in the business cases particularly as 'acceptable risk'. I can save £XM pa by outsourcing a task and striking the public sector staff who did the work off the books but the other tasks they did and the new tasks generated (contract and performance monitoring, contract management) either get given to already overstretched staff or not done at all. But, since the politician who's idea it was has got their reward / promotion, no-one really cares. Until it goes wrong; like happened to the Probation Service.

I agree that it how it should happen, but it rarely does in that manner. The problem is that businesses aren't always very good at articulating what they actually want. This is in my experience irrespective of whether they are in the private or public sectors.

Outsourcing is a really sensible and usually quite cost effective way of getting rid of business units (usually services) that is not core part of the core business (e.g. IT, HR, Catering etc.). This allows them to then concentrate on the core aspects of their business. Do people lose their jobs as a result of this, yes that is one of the unfortunate elements, but it is (usually) all about cost savings.
 
I agree that it how it should happen, but it rarely does in that manner. The problem is that businesses aren't always very good at articulating what they actually want. This is in my experience irrespective of whether they are in the private or public sectors.

Yes - we have been getting rid of good requirements engineers and acquisition experts. We seem to contract it out (or lose them due to poor pay compared to the equivant in the private sector). The result is I have seen contractors define the need, deliver the solution and it and decide if it's been delivered. What could possibly go wrong?

Outsourcing is a really sensible and usually quite cost effective way of getting rid of business units (usually services) that is not core part of the core business (e.g. IT, HR, Catering etc.). This allows them to then concentrate on the core aspects of their business. Do people lose their jobs as a result of this, yes that is one of the unfortunate elements, but it is (usually) all about cost savings.

I agree. In theory it can make savings and it should, but in practice, in the rush to save money and show a drop in spend of tax-payers' money, even core businesses are being farmed out, like the Probation Service, critical national infrastructure or prisons. Whether you think it's a good idea to do so or not, if you do go down that route, as well as a well articulated, complete 'ask', the public sector should not be frightened to hold the supplier to account for not delivering and contractors should enter into it more as a partner in this than a business that really doesn't care about what they deliver as long as they make a good profit or, at worst, a predatory beast focused on the bottom line who reams out UK PLC just because there's a loophole in the contract that affords them the chance to do so.

Just to bring it back to Covid-19, had that Nirvana been achieved between UK and providers, we might have got £50M worth of masks that actually did what they should do, rather than meeting a poorly-written spec.
 
Maybe I am a wannabe Tory after all.

No I was talking about large-scale government outsourcing. I have either worked in the government or provided services to the government (via outsourcing firms) for my entire career, and I can assure you there are significant savings to be had.

I am not one for people should have a job for life, if they are not fulfilling the role or there is no longer a requirement for that role, then get rid!

A Tory is someone who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. As perfectly described here.
As for your third paragraph... How about instead of "get rid" you recognise the talents and commitment of the workforce and retrain to the new roles. I'm now retired but as a public sector worker and trade unionist I saw many instances of services destroyed and workers' lives ruined by ideologically driven outsourcing.
 
Yes - we have been getting rid of good requirements engineers and acquisition experts. We seem to contract it out (or lose them due to poor pay compared to the equivant in the private sector). The result is I have seen contractors define the need, deliver the solution and it and decide if it's been delivered. What could possibly go wrong?



I agree. In theory it can make savings and it should, but in practice, in the rush to save money and show a drop in spend of tax-payers' money, even core businesses are being farmed out, like the Probation Service, critical national infrastructure or prisons. Whether you think it's a good idea to do so or not, if you do go down that route, as well as a well articulated, complete 'ask', the public sector should not be frightened to hold the supplier to account for not delivering and contractors should enter into it more as a partner in this than a business that really doesn't care about what they deliver as long as they make a good profit or, at worst, a predatory beast focused on the bottom line who reams out UK PLC just because there's a loophole in the contract that affords them the chance to do so.

Just to bring it back to Covid-19, had that Nirvana been achieved between UK and providers, we might have got £50M worth of masks that actually did what they should do, rather than meeting a poorly-written spec.
Agree with that, especially the first point. Requirements analysis is hard, mistakes are easy and, in most cases, the public sector lacks the expertise to do it (partly because, as you say, it can't offer qualified staff enough financial incentive).

The same problem occurs at the other end of the process. Public sector organisations tend to lack contract management expertise so the service provider runs rings around them. Addressing this issue, and the first one would put a significant dent in most business cases and might make outsourcing seem less of a panacea.

A third issue is that, in my experience, it's impossible to completely privatise the risk. Thus, when things go pear shaped, the public sector is left to pick up the pieces, while the supplier walks away.

Finally, I've never seen an outsourcing contract that bridges the cultural divide between a public service ethos and the relentless focus on the bottom line. There are fudges and workarounds but the two are essentially irreconcilable.

There might be an argument for separating non-core functions, but I see no reason why that cannot be done via a shared public service, with close links to the participating public sector organisations.
 
A third issue is that, in my experience, it's impossible to completely privatise the risk. Thus, when things go pear shaped, the public sector is left to pick up the pieces, while the supplier walks away.

This is a real problem where you are outsourcing things which have to be done for legal or regulatory issues. Luckily it doesn't happen too much with the bins.:)
 
Just heard that Facebook removed more than 7 million pieces of COVID-19 related misinformation between April and June.

Why are there so many people who embrace conspiracy theories? It is one thing to explore alternative explanations, but it is entirely something else to embrace bullsh*t, tinfoil hat nonsense to the point where you feel need to post it and pass it on! We not only have a COVID-19 virus, we also have a much larger virus of ignorance and stupidity that is spreading even faster!

Scientists are working 7x24 on vaccines and treatments while Madonna posts crap about “hidden cures”. 250,000 idiot bikers have descended on Sturgis, South Dakota, proclaiming COVID-19 a hoax!

Am trying really hard not to despair over our collective future, but am starting to lose the fight.
Speaking with a guy on Monday about the use of face masks in shops, he said, & i quote "well i know there's a virus but it's only 1% who die from it & while it's bad they have died i don't see the point in wearing a mask. It's all been blown out of proportion". A well educated guy who runs his own business.

Conspiracy i can deal with but when faced with such blind ignorance, i do find this more challenging.
 
Just heard that Facebook removed more than 7 million pieces of COVID-19 related misinformation between April and June.

Why are there so many people who embrace conspiracy theories? It is one thing to explore alternative explanations, but it is entirely something else to embrace bullsh*t, tinfoil hat nonsense to the point where you feel need to post it and pass it on! We not only have a COVID-19 virus, we also have a much larger virus of ignorance and stupidity that is spreading even faster!

Scientists are working 7x24 on vaccines and treatments while Madonna posts crap about “hidden cures”. 250,000 idiot bikers have descended on Sturgis, South Dakota, proclaiming COVID-19 a hoax!

Am trying really hard not to despair over our collective future, but am starting to lose the fight.

This is all symptoms of the CHAOS I'm afraid. I also fear we may have gone too far to turn back from it.
 
Just heard that Facebook removed more than 7 million pieces of COVID-19 related misinformation between April and June.

Why are there so many people who embrace conspiracy theories? It is one thing to explore alternative explanations, but it is entirely something else to embrace bullsh*t, tinfoil hat nonsense to the point where you feel need to post it and pass it on! We not only have a COVID-19 virus, we also have a much larger virus of ignorance and stupidity that is spreading even faster!

Scientists are working 7x24 on vaccines and treatments while Madonna posts crap about “hidden cures”. 250,000 idiot bikers have descended on Sturgis, South Dakota, proclaiming COVID-19 a hoax!

Am trying really hard not to despair over our collective future, but am starting to lose the fight.

Feeds a need to feel superior or special. They are "in the know" and the rest of humanity are fools, that sort of thing. Not part of the herd etc. I share your despair, "against stupidity, the gods themselves contend in vain".
 
This is a real problem where you are outsourcing things which have to be done for legal or regulatory issues. Luckily it doesn't happen too much with the bins.:)

It sort-of did after the 1988 Local Government Act. One of the first things I did professionally was to write a report with the excellent Stefan Sczymanski of the London Business School on the outcomes of competitive tendering in the UK waste disposal market.

The fundamental problem with "outsourcing" (and the debate about evidence for this has been going on for ages) is that we are not living in an idealised invisible-hand economy. All the evidence is that we are living in a shareholder/cartel one.
 
Speaking with a guy on Monday about the use of face masks in shops, he said, & i quote "well i know there's a virus but it's only 1% who die from it & while it's bad they have died i don't see the point in wearing a mask. It's all been blown out of proportion". A well educated guy who runs his own business.

Conspiracy i can deal with but when faced with such blind ignorance, i do find this more challenging.

I have been away for a while (not prison) and i know folks round these parts are well -informed so apologies if this has been mentioned before. The health professionals at ALAMA have put all the data into a table which determines a persons COVID AGE and hence their 'vulnerability' to the virus. It has certainly made the penny drop for me as an overweight 55 year old.
 
Yesterday NZ confirmed 4 (yes just 4 for the whole country) new cases all in the same family. Because the source is unknown the whole of Auckland has gone into essential services only lockdown today until Friday midnight at least. Decisive, responsible leadership.
 
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Come on - you were wrong in March, don't be wrong again bigfred. See the Oldham story above...

It’s easy to find an excuse not to do something, to find a chink in an argument or a wrinkle in a plan or policy, especially when as now we live in a complex and interconnected world.

TBH I hadn’t read your Oldham piece. It seems lots of young adults cant be arsed with social distancing. My take on it is some of the reinstalled freedoms will likely have to be withdrawn in places as a counter balance to allow for the kids returning to school. Education has to take precedence.
 
Oldham now has the most cases in the Country...

"Arooj Shah, Oldham council’s deputy leader, said the 255 new cases were “in all areas, in all age groups, and in all communities”. The previous spike three weeks ago was more concentrated in areas with large multi-generational households, with two-thirds of cases in the town’s Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities.

It appears that the transmission of the virus is now spreading more widely. There has been particular concern about young people carrying the disease unknowingly and spreading it to elder relatives following social trips to pubs, parks and house parties."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...08fd092ae7810b#block-5f32bd538f08fd092ae7810b

Test and Trace identified the cause of the flair up and they tried to apply the lightest lockdown possible to deal with it. A sort of surgical strike. It didn’t work because the Oldham people didn’t comply.

What are the lessons? Why was there compliance in Rochdale and Blackburn, where the light lockdown worked, but not in Oldham?
 
Test and Trace identified the cause of the flair up and they tried to apply the lightest lockdown possible to deal with it. A sort of surgical strike. It didn’t work because the Oldham people didn’t comply.

What are the lessons? Why was there compliance in Rochdale and Blackburn, where the light lockdown worked, but not in Oldham?

Let's get this thread back on track - thanks Tony.

To answer the question only time will tell. You're seeing a balance of two effects at play, the natural spread of the virus on the one hand, plus a dampening effect due to the measures taken on the other. It's looking quite unstable so we'll see which way it tips. The WHO advised the UK government not to ease any further restrictions but it fell on deaf ears. This kind of behaviour is what the deputy leader was alluding to I guess...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...0803fbf9406008#block-5f33b7e68f0803fbf9406008
 
Test and Trace identified the cause of the flair up and they tried to apply the lightest lockdown possible to deal with it. A sort of surgical strike. It didn’t work because the Oldham people didn’t comply.

What are the lessons? Why was there compliance in Rochdale and Blackburn, where the light lockdown worked, but not in Oldham?
The test and trace ‘system’ is clearly flawed leading to a lack of trust, so ‘compliance’ is bound to vary.

What do you think?
 
What do you think?

I don't know, I live in London, not Manchester. I don't have a feel for the demographic differences between Oldham and, for example, Rochdale --the Manchester Evening News said that in Rochdale the light lockdown had worked. Maybe one of the Mancs here can cast some illumination.
 
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