Coronavirus - the new strain X

[TheDecameron]

So Mandryka’s much touted support of Williamson’s analysis of the meta study of covid in kids is shown to be another pile of cack.
It in fact reveals that Williamson yet again is telling a pack of lies.
1. The govt will not receive official provisional findings until next week
2. The report will not be finalised before autumn
But most damningly
3. PHE scientists say it is far more nuanced that the Tory liars would like us to believe and that secondary pupils are “most likely to get infected, have silent infection, transmit infection and get sicker.”
One worker went on to say research shows it is being caught and transmitted in secondary schools and transmission in sixth forms is the same as in the adult population.
Times 11/08/20

It smelled fishy when the DM was touting unpublished data with no proper attribution. Then I thought, the schools have been shut for months- where exactly has this study been done?

 

[pjdowns]

I think what you meant to say was:

"The Tories won't sell the NHS, because that would be political suicide; they will however outsource elements of it to their mates. This will enrich them significantly, but outsourcing rarely, if ever, saves public money in the long term, and often costs money in the short term."

Having worked in Outsourcing firms for a good proportion of my career I can tell you that is nonsense, there is absolutely a saving by getting rid of internal middle management types and outsourcing.

There also strong fair-trade policies in place to prevent the other element of your point.

 

[pjdowns]

Semantics. The maths and the scientific evidence is unambiguous on this point. What's your background? Are you a mathematician? A scientist? If you were, you wouldn't be wasting everyone's time arguing the toss about this.

But it is not is it, it is just theory, yes scientifically backed theory, but still just theory!

 

[Seanm]

I'm sure you were telling the truth when you said that Lewis Goodall has some relevant work, and that Droodzilla was telling the truth about the video too. I wouldn't want anyone to think I was calling your integrity into question, or his.

It never occurred to me that you might not be: Corbyn’s intervention and Goodall’s reporting on the care homes scandal are common knowledge, not something anyone could really be accused of inventing. My point was that there’s really no need to seek assistance in tracking these things down.

 

[Nick_G]

I can’t tell you, other than I liked him when he was the Mayor of London and like him as a PM, you don’t have to always like the person to like them in a role

Also I like the fact he made decisive moves and got us finally out of the three year tangle that was to leave the EU, whilst May just spend her time procrastinating the entire time.

All politicians tell you want to hear (lying as you’d call it) but he’s more blatant with it so in a weird way that seems bizarrely better.

I also didn’t get the overreaction to my view around his wife. Yes it horrible that she was suffering and he cheated, but ultimately how does that effect you and I? There are many many horrible thing people do every day.

So, you're saying that the bigger the lie from a politician, the more comforting you find it? Take a step back for a moment. Can't you see that comes across as a bit, well, crazy?

I'm admiring your honesty about this at least.

 

[Tony L]

Just been out for a short daytime cycle-ride, one may as well observe the collapse of humanity first hand after all, albeit from a safe distance. I saw four busses (different routes, different operators), and whilst none were full the vast majority of occupants, probably 70%+, were not wearing masks. This is a high-risk area likely to go back into full lockdown.

 

[mandryka]

It never occurred to me that you might not be: Corbyn’s intervention and Goodall’s reporting on the care homes scandal are common knowledge, not something anyone could really be accused of inventing. My point was that there’s really no need to seek assistance in tracking these things down.

Well, I'm not coming up with anything for the Corbyn video, and while I can see that Goodall has reported extensively on the care-homes scandal, what I can't see is detailed examination of

1. When SAGE advised clearly about the importance of asymptomatic transmission and when Boris stopped discharging asymptomatic people back to care homes

and

2. The feasibility of testing asymptomatic people at the time.

The latter would be particularly interesting. I believe (but I haven't checked!) that SAGE were mentioning asymptomatic transmission as early as January, they knew it existed, but the government's line is that they didn't make clear that it was a really big deal until long after that, in March.

And Hancock's defence also makes reference to the shortage of tests at the time, the need to rationalise tests.

It's complicated. It's for a Ph.D in a few years time. This is why I'm urging against pointing the finger too quickly. But obviously I can see why some people, for party political reasons, may want to brush over the details and just accuse the government of gross negligence.

Sorry --all the above is really bad English -- I'm in a hurry. Hopefully you can make sense of it.

 

[pjdowns]

So, you're saying that the bigger the lie from a politician, the more comforting you find it? Take a step back for a moment. Can't you see that comes across as a bit, well, crazy?

I'm admiring your honesty about this at least.

Yep that is my view and I can kinda see why you'd think it was crazy too

I also see it as more telling people what they want to hear, and maybe what they know at the time. So in a crazy, strange way it is almost being honest about lying.... maybe I am nuts!

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Having worked in Outsourcing firms for a good proportion of my career I can tell you that is nonsense, there is absolutely a saving by getting rid of internal middle management types and outsourcing.

Is this outsourcing of public sector stuff, or outsourcing of services, etc, for business? I can see the potential for savings if a smaller firm needs a function but can't make full use of the infrastructure that function needs (whether hardware, software or wetware); In those cases, it makes sense for several small firms to use the facilities of a provider, to the extent they need it. Where I have a problem is in the public sector, because these are more often large-scale undertakings so there aren't the economies of scale to be had. And you may replace a layer of middle-management with a layer of oversight of the contract; also, of course, 'getting rid of internal middle-management types' is Tory-style speak for making people redundant and possibly ending their careers prematurely, thus putting the burden back on the public purse, just somewhere else.

 

[pjdowns]

Maybe I am a wannabe Tory after all.

No I was talking about large-scale government outsourcing. I have either worked in the government or provided services to the government (via outsourcing firms) for my entire career, and I can assure you there are significant savings to be had.

I am not one for people should have a job for life, if they are not fulfilling the role or there is no longer a requirement for that role, then get rid!

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Maybe I am a wannabe Tory after all.

No I was talking about large-scale government outsourcing. I have either worked in the government or provided services to the government (via outsourcing firms) for my entire career, and I can assure you there are significant savings to be had.

I am not one for people should have a job for life, if they are not fulfilling the role or there is no longer a requirement for that role, then get rid!

Well, what if they are fulfilling the role perfectly well, but by outsourcing you lose the role and the money they cost, and give the money instead to a private company which passes the profits to its shareholders. Is this fair on a perfectly competent individual? A lot of these affected individuals will be older (middle-management types being relatively senior, as these things go) and either forced into early retirement against their will, or forced into the jobs market where they will have to compete for posts against younger, cheaper competition.

You'll have guessed that I'm broadly ideologically opposed to outsourcing in the terms I think you're describing, because I'm not sure I've seen evidence that there are genuine savings to be had (the outsourcing firm needs to make a profit and pay investors and shareholders their due, and this is paid for by the client), and I've seen the harm, and the downright incompetence of many of the outsourcing firms: G4S, Serco, Capita...

 

[Chops54]

Just been out for a short daytime cycle-ride, one may as well observe the collapse of humanity first hand after all, albeit from a safe distance. I saw four busses (different routes, different operators), and whilst none were full the vast majority of occupants, probably 70%+, were not wearing masks. This is a high-risk area likely to go back into full lockdown.

I don’t think they’ll allow us to have another full lockdown Tony. The financial repercussions would be disastrous. We’ll be told it’s our fault for not toeing the line and to take our punishment. Tbh I don’t think that many people give a fu5k anyway.

 

[gavreid]

Well, what if they are fulfilling the role perfectly well, but by outsourcing you lose the role and the money they cost, and give the money instead to a private company which passes the profits to its shareholders. Is this fair on a perfectly competent individual? A lot of these affected individuals will be older (middle-management types being relatively senior, as these things go) and either forced into early retirement against their will, or forced into the jobs market where they will have to compete for posts against younger, cheaper competition.

You'll have guessed that I'm broadly ideologically opposed to outsourcing in the terms I think you're describing, because I'm not sure I've seen evidence that there are genuine savings to be had (the outsourcing firm needs to make a profit and pay investors and shareholders their due, and this is paid for by the client), and I've seen the harm, and the downright incompetence of many of the outsourcing firms: G4S, Serco, Capita...

It's just a race to bottom. Every lost job, every pension taken away to pay the dividends of the shareholders, is money lost permanently to the economy, while the spivs line their pockets.

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Just been out for a short daytime cycle-ride, one may as well observe the collapse of humanity first hand after all, albeit from a safe distance. I saw four busses (different routes, different operators), and whilst none were full the vast majority of occupants, probably 70%+, were not wearing masks. This is a high-risk area likely to go back into full lockdown.

Took a tram ride for the first time since February, last weekend. I'd guess around 50% of passengers were wearing masks on the first tram, perhaps 65% on the second one. Mostly younger people not wearing them. A fair few had masks on, but pulled down round their chin

 

[pjdowns]

Well, what if they are fulfilling the role perfectly well, but by outsourcing you lose the role and the money they cost, and give the money instead to a private company which passes the profits to its shareholders. Is this fair on a perfectly competent individual? A lot of these affected individuals will be older (middle-management types being relatively senior, as these things go) and either forced into early retirement against their will, or forced into the jobs market where they will have to compete for posts against younger, cheaper competition.

You'll have guessed that I'm broadly ideologically opposed to outsourcing in the terms I think you're describing, because I'm not sure I've seen evidence that there are genuine savings to be had (the outsourcing firm needs to make a profit and pay investors and shareholders their due, and this is paid for by the client), and I've seen the harm, and the downright incompetence of many of the outsourcing firms: G4S, Serco, Capita...

Fair enough, I know a number of people that have been adversely affected by Outsourcing so I can understand that some people would not like it. I won't get onto the impact of middle managers losing their jobs because I think it is far too emotive subject.

There are obviously risks with outsourcing, and what a lot of business forget (that outsource) is that they need a strong internal client function to manage those outsourcing contracts, ultimately it is their business so they can't outsource everything without negative consequences.

 

[pjdowns]

It's just a race to bottom. Every lost job, every pension taken away to pay the dividends of the shareholders, is money lost permanently to the economy, while the spivs line their pockets.

I guess there is an element of truth to this.

 

[pjdowns]

Took a tram ride for the first time since February, last weekend. I'd guess around 50% of passengers were wearing masks on the first tram, perhaps 65% on the second one. Mostly younger people not wearing them. A fair few had masks on, but pulled down round their chin

Yep we went to a favourite local cafe on Saturday to get a takeaway (we weren't yet brave enough to sit in) and I'd say there were 20 couples/familys in there and only one group wearing any sort of mask. Yes obviously when eating it is difficult but otherwise there is no excuse not to wear a mask!

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Yep we went to a favourite local cafe on Saturday to get a takeaway (we weren't yet brave enough to sit in) and I'd say there were 20 couples/familys in there and only one group wearing any sort of mask. Yes obviously when eating it is difficult but otherwise there is no excuse not to wear a mask!

You're not required by law to wear a mask in a bar, pub or restaurant (for obvious reasons involving spilling your pint down your shirt, etc) but the law does require (AIUI) wearing of masks on public transport.

 

[pjdowns]

You're not required by law to wear a mask in a bar, pub or restaurant (for obvious reasons involving spilling your pint down your shirt, etc) but the law does require (AIUI) wearing of masks on public transport.

True but common sense says that just because it isn't law to wear them in bars, pubs or restaurants that once the door is closed there is any less chance of catching the virus, so people should wear them (when not eating or drinking pints).\

What I can't quite get my head around is those people that wear them in a car (when they are the only one in there) or when walking along an empty road, but again each to their own.

 

[pjdowns]

True but common sense says that just because it isn't law to wear them in bars, pubs or restaurants that once the door is closed there is any less chance of catching the virus, so people should wear them (when not eating or drinking pints).\

What I can't quite get my head around is those people that wear them in a car (when they are the only one in there) or when walking along an empty road, but again each to their own.

Maybe me being only 42, Obese with Sleep Aponea and a serious heart condition probably makes me more sensitive to those that don't care too much about this virus than others.