eternumviti
Insufficient privileges to reply.
If I were a Daily Mail reader I might postulate that there is something oddly appropriate about the choice of yellow.
Just as well I'm not, eh!
Just as well I'm not, eh!
That has the sound of tragically gripping at straws and yes, you ‘will have to learn to live with it’. Good luck for the future.
Is it not just easier to say that the reduction in imports/exports and costs to business associated with leaving the SM and CU, and based on the experience of other similar FTAs, as well as that of the past 10 months, runs to a suppression in GDP of around one quarter of a percent annually?
What we must hope, and what is overwhelmingly important and relevant now, is that the policies of this and successive future governments serve to transform this economy from a low value and unproductive one to a high value, productive one.
If I were a Daily Mail reader I might postulate that there is something oddly appropriate about the choice of yellow.
Just as well I'm not, eh!
The problem these reports face is how to get across very large changes in the economy in a simple way that people can relate to and understand. I would suggest your sentence is the very opposite of that
If you really want a per year figure, I would suggest Brexit reduces the growth of the UK economy by about 25% a year. Or Brexit will create on average 2 extra recessions over the next 10 years.
As I said, these reports used to divide the GDP loss by number of households to get a per household £ number which was seen as problematic for a number of reasons. So in this case, given people understand what a massive effect COVID has been and the OBR's has reports for both, it's an obvious move to explain the effect of Brexit in relative to COVID.
I.e. when you say "4% of GDP over 15 years" people think that doesn't sound that bad. If you say "twice as bad as COVID" people understand what a disastrous mistake Brexit is at least from an economic point of view.
Governments have been wishing this literally every year since Harold Wilson's White Heat of Technology speech. It would work a lot better if we stopped electing people obsessed with tax cuts and spending reductions.
GDP growth projections for 2021 are currently dialled in at 6.6%, and 2022 at 5.5%. What the average growth across 15 years will be is in the lap of the Gods, or rather future government policy, and global geopolitics.
If the latter, your figure of 25% annual reduction seems excessive
I can't help but conclude that the intervention by Mr Hughes(?) was therefore political, and rather smacks of Project Fear v5.1.
the reduction in GDP growth is associated with our departure from leaving the SM/CU, not Brexit.
Brexit took us out of the EU, the policies of which, beyond the SM and CU, are economically increasingly suppressive of trade. Our departure from the EU could, if played right, produce advantages that would act to some extent as a counterbalance to the extra trading costs of being outside the SM/CU.
the current government is now apparently taxing us at a higher level than at any time since the 1950s, and Sunak appeared to be laying out the money hoses in his budget of this week.
The best way to understand these predictions is this graph:
Basically they are always hopelessly wrong and everyone knows it and it's a sort of polite game where people don't say it out loud so we can all talk optimistically about the future.
Make an estimate of annual GDP growth over time -- lets say 2% per year. 0.25% reduction in GDP means a 25% reduction in that growth, unless me brain really is not working this morning.
You are Fraser Nelson and I claim my £5.
I agree. And the Soft Remainer / Centrist Dad position of people like me has basically been to respect the referendum and leave the EU but remain in the SM/CU so the economic damage would have been minimal. This was largely undone by the crazy wing of the Tory party and Theresa May's red lines speech.
I do not believe there is any evidence for this. And whenever you ask Brexiteers to explain they get all hand wavy and then deflect by having a go at the EU.
(Note this is not a request for you to explain this).
Sunak wants to cut taxes and he wants to cut spending and pay off debt because that is the ideology of him and the Tory party. However, unlike Cameron and Osborne he is not an idiot and at least understands the economics of our current situation.
A prediction I am willing to pin my colours to is that Sunak will revert to type and we will have tax cuts just before the next election and massive spending cuts immediately after.
Political: yes, of course, and always has been, pace to that fraction of Brexit voters that "just thought they were joining a common market".The problem with membership of the SM, as desirable as that may be, is that it is incumbent upon membership of the EU, an overtly political (and, incidentally, growth-suppressive) organisation that a majority of British voters in the 2016 referendum indicated that they didn't want to be part of. That is the situation we have, and the one that we're going to have to learn to live with.
My maths are not too hot, but I make that a 12.5% reduction, unless there's a compounding effect or sumpn I*ve missed.Make an estimate of annual GDP growth over time -- lets say 2% per year. 0.25% reduction in GDP means a 25% reduction in that growth, unless me brain really is not working this morning.
This is the real tragedy of Brexit. There was a perfectly sensible way of respecting the outcome of the referendum while still avoiding the hard Brexit that only the ERG nutters wanted. All so unnecessary.And the Soft Remainer / Centrist Dad position of people like me has basically been to respect the referendum and leave the EU but remain in the SM/CU so the economic damage would have been minimal. This was largely undone by the crazy wing of the Tory party and Theresa May's red lines speech.
This is the real tragedy of Brexit. There was a perfectly sensible way of respecting the outcome of the referendum while still avoiding the hard Brexit that only the ERG nutters wanted. All so unnecessary.
Not quite,
Despite pressing questions, the report said the government had shown little interest in investigating whether the Brexit referendum was targeted by Russia. The government responded that it had “seen no evidence of successful interference in the E.U. referendum” and dismissed the need for further investigation.
But the committee suggested that the reason no evidence had been uncovered was because nobody had looked for it.
“In response to our request for written evidence at the outset of the inquiry, MI5 initially provided just six lines of text,” the committee said. Had the intelligence agencies conducted a threat assessment before the vote, it added, it was “inconceivable” that they would not have concluded there was a Russian threat.
There really is no need for anyone to blame everything bad on Brexit. There is more than enough bad stuff for which there is plentiful evidence linking it.More important than me and your assumptions about me is hard remainers blaming everything bad on brexit and for the last 6 years. This was predicted.
I was tempted to go and have a look...shall I save my time?I look forward to you quoting a post from me where I’ve said Brexit is a good thing. I don’t think you’ll find one. What I adhere to is support of democracy and not just when it goes my way.
Don't be shy, Brian. Tell us how you voted.Fact is, nobody here knows how I voted but if you want to make up you know and keep reminding everyone of that, go ahead.
Maybe, but a second referendum would have brought its own problems: which deal would people have voted on, Theresa May's or Boris Johnson's?. It could have been twisted in so many different ways, and the voters would not have been much better equipped to analyze the complicated trade, macroeconomic and constitutional choices that have baffled Westminster for so many years. It would have represented in some ways a complete abdication of responsibility by the political class in general. I have always been in the camp that while having one referendum was a bad idea, having two would have been worse.I think you needed to go back to the people with a confirmatory referendum on the ERG Brexit and the soft brexit option. It would be the only way of trying to cull the ERG extremism and try and neuter the their ongoing campaign if a soft Brexit won that referendum. Certainly if the hard brexit option won a second referendum well then you would know for certain this is what the majority want.
My maths are not too hot, but I make that a 12.5% reduction, unless there's a compounding effect or sumpn I*ve missed.
(You put that there just to check we're following, right?)
I am now convinced Brian voted to Remain and has been trolling you all for the last 5 years.