Brexit: give me a positive effect... VI

[i.j.russell]

Fisheries make up 1% of GDP they tell us it's about that utter nonsense it's a smoke screen .

It's 0.12% of GDP.

 

[Colin L]

I've read the GFA. The only mention of the border in the entire document is in the use of the term 'cross-border', a clear acknowledgement that there is a border between NI & Ireland.

The only potential clear breach of the GFA will, as far as I can see, be caused by a border down the Irish Sea.

https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1306334039557586944?s=21

Under WTO rules a hard border will be required in the event of a no deal Brexit. The only alternative is a border in the Irish Sea, which the Tories have rejected.

 

[Romulus]

Boris Johnson says he is wanting UK to have Australian Style Trade, what does that exactly mean? For me he does not want to say that unfortunately there will be Brexit without deal so he is sent off scampering for other deals in this world, he firstly wanted Canadian Style Trade, that is not working so he is feverishly latched on to Australia. I am not sure, but I think Australia have deal of sorts with EU, is he aware of that? He reminds me of someone who is in a middle of a chess game, who realizes the momentum is against him and is desperately looking elsewhere on the board to change the situation but the chances are diminishing...

 

[SteveS1]

Boris Johnson says he is wanting UK to have Australian Style Trade, what does that exactly mean?

Spin.

It means failure, but sounds better than Sierra Leone deal, Guam deal or similar. It's no deal.

Canada 'Style' deal can mean anything they want it to mean but as Canada has no history of integration with the EU and is not in close proximity it is an attempt to sound reasonable when making an unreasonable claim.

 

[Colin Barron]

You see, Colin this really makes no sense to me.

We’ve left the EU.

We can pull out on WTO terms anytime we like.

We are facing an existential crisis.

We can have an ‘end stop’ anytime we like.

Only in Johnson’s mind does it have to be an arbitrary date in the middle of a pandemic.

Stephen

Emperor Macron is out on a limb and any sign of weakness by the UK and it will be bino. We need to let the 27 move on with their federal quest, this Brexit business is a waste of time.

 

[SteveS1]

Emperor Macron is out on a limb and any sign of weakness by the UK and it will be bino. We need to let the 27 move on with their federal quest, this Brexit business is a waste of time.

The weakness is self inflicted.

 

[Colin L]

An interesting article by a trade expert, David Henig, from July last year, but still relevant today.

https://ecipe.org/blog/isolation-or-integration-eu-fta-brexit/

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

More pompous rubbish. “Only us (hard) remainers who understand...”

I think there is a fair sized mountain of evidence that Brexit will cause massive, long term, economic upheaval, and a no-deal Brexit will cause enormous pain and difficulty in the shorter term. Anybody who still wishes to continue the present trajectory when faced with this evidence is either in denial, or actually doesn't understand. So in a way, yes, if you still support Leave in the present circumstances, then you don't understand the ramifications.

That’s been known since the referendum was announced and the campaigning started.

And roundly denounced since that same time as 'project fear' by those with a vested interest, and roundly ignored by those who prefer not to have their prejudices challenged. So yes, some Brexiteers 'understand' (but desire it), and for the rest, the jury's out as to understanding I'm afraid. I think you can reasonably argue that those for whom the impact will be worst, but who nevertheless voted for it, can't have understood.

 

[SteveS1]

An interesting article by a trade expert, David Henig, from July last year, but still relevant today.
https://ecipe.org/blog/isolation-or-integration-eu-fta-brexit/
https://ecipe.org/blog/isolation-or-integration-eu-fta-brexit/

"The fundamental problem with this vision is that such a beneficial FTA to the UK is unlikely to be available to us without stringent conditions. It is yet another example of us attempting to cherry pick, to get most of the trade benefits of EU membership without the bits we don’t like. Like the previous examples, such as the Chequers plans for a shared rulebook, this is not going to be mutually acceptable. As it has shown many times before, the EU is only going to agree to free trade with a neighbouring country on the basis of a level of continuing integration with the EU."

Indeed.

 

[Brian]

And roundly denounced since that same time as 'project fear' by those with a vested interest, and roundly ignored by those who prefer not to have their prejudices challenged. So yes, some Brexiteers 'understand' (but desire it), and for the rest, the jury's out as to understanding I'm afraid. I think you can reasonably argue that those for whom the impact will be worst, but who nevertheless voted for it, can't have understood.

When it comes to those who voted for it, you can't know what other people did and did not understand when they entered that voting booth in 2016.

You could equally and reasonably argue that if the people had pulled together immediately after that referendum, accepted we were leaving and worked toward that without trying to overturn the referendum result we might be in a stronger position today. That too is something we can't know for certain. What we do know is the tories are a disaster.

The Starmer thread is sending a very clear message that a faction of pfm, which could well be reflected outside of pfm seem to be finding yet more reasons NOT to support a change in govt. It's staggering. People are concentrating on the wrong thing. Brexit is done, now we need a deal with the EU and with others to get through the next few years and then people must vote out this govt. Only then can we even hope to start making a proper recovery from the damage done and still to be done.

 

[eternumviti]

https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1306334039557586944?s=21

Under WTO rules a hard border will be required in the event of a no deal Brexit. The only alternative is a border in the Irish Sea, which the Tories have rejected.

You were discussing the threat to the GFA. A border is the Irish Sea will be in direct contravention of the GFA. A border between NI and the Republic already exists, albeit obviously not in hard form.

Hard form, of course, is not necessary, except to the intransigent.

Boris Johnson says he is wanting UK to have Australian Style Trade, what does that exactly mean? For me he does not want to say that unfortunately there will be Brexit without deal so he is sent off scampering for other deals in this world, he firstly wanted Canadian Style Trade, that is not working so he is feverishly latched on to Australia. I am not sure, but I think Australia have deal of sorts with EU, is he aware of that? He reminds me of someone who is in a middle of a chess game, who realizes the momentum is against him and is desperately looking elsewhere on the board to change the situation but the chances are diminishing...

Australia has a number of side-deals with the EU, as does the US. In the latter case there are 165 of them, sector specific. They serve to facilitate the movement of goods, services, data, planes, ships etc, but don't collectively amount to a formal trade deal.

The Canada style deal, incidentally, was the one that the EU were consistently offering (it sat at the foot of Barnier's famous staircase graph), until the UK accepted the offer, whereupon the EU promptly withdrew it. This is what is referred to as negotiating 'in good faith'...

 

[tuga]

It isn't, but is a coalition of small countries that together are big enough to stand up to the USA and China and then be in a position to set the rules rather than be forced to obey someone elses.

They're also big enough to stand up to business/big-corps and black money, and that's why the EU under attack...

 

[Nick_G]

When it comes to those who voted for it, you can't know what other people did and did not understand when they entered that voting booth in 2016.

You could equally and reasonably argue that if the people had pulled together immediately after that referendum, accepted we were leaving and worked toward that without trying to overturn the referendum result we might be in a stronger position today. That too is something we can't know for certain. What we do know is the tories are a disaster.

The Starmer thread is sending a very clear message that a faction of pfm, which could well be reflected outside of pfm seem to be finding yet more reasons NOT to support a change in govt. It's staggering. People are concentrating on the wrong thing. Brexit is done, now we need a deal with the EU and with others to get through the next few years and then people must vote out this govt. Only then can we even hope to start making a proper recovery from the damage done and still to be done.

You are damn right that the Tories are a disaster. Theresa May insulted and ignored the 48% who voted to remain, to appease the Brexit extremists within the party, and from that point on, dashed the chances of pulling the country together. So you can lay the fault of that largely on the Tories as well.

 

[tuga]

When it comes to those who voted for it, you can't know what other people did and did not understand when they entered that voting booth in 2016.

You could equally and reasonably argue that if the people had pulled together immediately after that referendum, accepted we were leaving and worked toward that without trying to overturn the referendum result we might be in a stronger position today. That too is something we can't know for certain. What we do know is the tories are a disaster.

The Starmer thread is sending a very clear message that a faction of pfm, which could well be reflected outside of pfm seem to be finding yet more reasons NOT to support a change in govt. It's staggering. People are concentrating on the wrong thing. Brexit is done, now we need a deal with the EU and with others to get through the next few years and then people must vote out this govt. Only then can we even hope to start making a proper recovery from the damage done and still to be done.

Leaving aside the unquestionable fact that Leave won, Leave voters were only 38% of the electorate.
In the meantime some Leavers regret having voted Leave and just as many Remainers want to get it done, so it won't be too far off to use the Referendum numbers as guidance.

If people ignore that only 38% actually voted to Leave they will never understand the Remoaning.

And there's also the fact that every fearmongering prediction is turning out to be true... It doesn't help promote the BrExit cause with any reasonable or sensible person.


We need a deal. Any kind of deal is a BINO.

No-deal is suicide.

 

[roman]

You were discussing the threat to the GFA. A border is the Irish Sea will be in direct contravention of the GFA. A border between NI and the Republic already exists, albeit obviously not in hard form.

Hard form, of course, is not necessary, except to the intransigent.



Australia has a number of side-deals with the EU, as does the US. In the latter case there are 165 of them, sector specific. They serve to facilitate the movement of goods, services, data, planes, ships etc, but don't collectively amount to a formal trade deal.

The Canada style deal, incidentally, was the one that the EU were consistently offering (it sat at the foot of Barnier's famous staircase graph), until the UK accepted the offer, whereupon the EU promptly withdrew it. This is what is referred to as negotiating 'in good faith'...

If standards are not agreed how do you propose to avoid smuggling and goods of a lower standard from crossing the border?

Given the importance to so many brexiters of tightening regulations and border controls isn't it a bit much to mock such ' intransigence' in other circumstances?

Is Nigel still patrolling with his binoculars to stop the foreign invasion?

 

[stephen bennett]

Emperor Macron is out on a limb and any sign of weakness by the UK and it will be bino. We need to let the 27 move on with their federal quest, this Brexit business is a waste of time.

I agree with the last sentiment at least, if not with the hyperbole otherwise.

So let’s leave it as it is and if we must leave without a deal, let’s do it at least when conditions are more favourable.

Do you not have the slightest reservations of throwing the economy into chaos when we are struggling with the economic impact of the pandemic?

There are stirrings that at least some members of Johnson’s cabinet do.

I, like you, are concerned that Johnson will agree to a terrible deal out of panic. A pause for reflection makes sense under the current circumstances.

As I’ve also said, you leavers have won. Farage has won. Johnson has won. Why the rush?

Stephen

 

[tuga]

As I’ve also said, you leavers have won. Farage has won. Johnson has won. Why the rush?

Fürage and BoJo have debts to pay...

 

[Brian]

I agree with the last sentiment at least, if not with the hyperbole otherwise.

So let’s leave it as it is and if we must leave without a deal, let’s do it at least when conditions are more favourable.

Do you not have the slightest reservations of throwing the economy into chaos when we are struggling with the economic impact of the pandemic?

There are stirrings that at least some members of Johnson’s cabinet do.

I, like you, are concerned that Johnson will agree to a terrible deal out of panic. A pause for reflection makes sense under the current circumstances.

As I’ve also said, you leavers have won. Farage has won. Johnson has won. Why the rush?

Stephen

Surely, as our good friends, the EU would never take advantage of Johnson being in a panic and pushing on with a deal they know is a terrible one, albeit only terrible for the UK.

 

[eternumviti]

If standards are not agreed how do you propose to avoid smuggling and goods of a lower standard from crossing the border?

Given the importance to so many brexiters of tightening regulations and border controls isn't it a bit much to mock such ' intransigence' in other circumstances?

Is Nigel still patrolling with his binoculars to stop the foreign invasion?

You seem to be conflating goods and people. People are dealt with under the Common Travel Area, which predates the EU, the EC, the EEC and the ESCC.

I do take your point though that there could be some smuggling of lower standard goods in from the EU across the Irish border.

 

[tuga]

Surely, as our good friends, the EU would never take advantage of Johnson being in a panic and pushing on with a deal they know is a terrible one, albeit only terrible for the UK.

The same trustworthy Johnson who prorogued Parliament and set in law that the UK could break the WA with the EU?

I think that the EU wants to gerrit dun as much as Leavers. BrExit has already cost them a lot of money, and it was not of its own doing... But unlike BoJo the EU is knowledgeable and respectful of the GFA and WTA rules.

And it does not want to grant free CM access to non-members.