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Brexit: give me a positive effect (2022 remastered edition) II

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I think it’s too late, not necessarily because the EU might not want us back (I think that could change if we had a government that wasn’t utterly dysfunctional and ideologically hidebound); but rather because rejoining would mean joining the Euro. I’d never support that. The best option for us now is undoubtedly the EEA, IMHO.
I’m not sure we would need to adopt the euro. Poland have been in the EU for about 20 years and haven’t, despite saying they would. There doesn’t seem to be any pressure on them to do so though.

I don’t think we’d need to fully rejoin either. Labour seems to be intent on regulatory alignment which would be essential to rejoin the single market and that would make a huge difference to us.
 
This is worth a watch. Tories going off Brexit?

I thought this was was an interesting take on the Tories and Brexit. As @rbrown says, well worth a watch. There must be a whole bunch of centre right pro EU Tories who would love to see the back of the ERG and the current Concervative leadership.
 
Now all that Brussels employment red tape is gone, benefit claimants will be digging toxic sludge out of Tees estuary with shovels in return for their universal credit.

The real toxic sludge is in Westminster, and I'm certain you'd find more than a few benefit claimants who'd be only too pleased to take some shovels to it.
 
It may be too late. Would the EU want the UK back in now ?
Many EU countries have benefited from relocating UK business.
The UK will be viewed as a troublesome and untrustworthy partner.

Rejoining is off the table for decades but SM/CU membership would be good enough for most. That could well happen in the next decade or so. The tories need a spell in opposition to purge themselves of their loony fringe (it’s not even a fringe these days though!) before the EU will consider it though.
 
I’m not sure we would need to adopt the euro. Poland have been in the EU for about 20 years and haven’t, despite saying they would. There doesn’t seem to be any pressure on them to do so though.

I don’t think we’d need to fully rejoin either. Labour seems to be intent on regulatory alignment which would be essential to rejoin the single market and that would make a huge difference to us.
Yes, we wouldn’t need to adopt the euro but I believe the EU would insist.
 
It may be too late. Would the EU want the UK back in now ?
Many EU countries have benefited from relocating UK business.
The UK will be viewed as a troublesome and untrustworthy partner.
That's become a real question, and one that is often forgotten in the UK's internal debate, which is all about "what do we want". The behaviour of HM's successive governments since 2016 (4 and counting) have weakened the position dramatically. There would have to be plenty of evidence that the UK is willing to honour an international agreement it signed without the next government (or even the same government - looking at you, BoJo) threatening to rip it up 6 months later.

Even an arrangement well short of full membership would be difficult to sell, both internally and externally. The wishes of the EEA nations would have to be considered. Norway is not anxious for the UK to join the outer circle, due to the difference in population/GDP/heft. Some sort of ad hoc arrangement is possible, but even that would take many years and trust has to be built before that. Europe continues to be the 3d rail for British political parties.
 
y7ZD6Ze.png


Pound to Euro – its 20-year history in a nutshell
  • The GBP/EUR rate started out in 1999 at just above the €1.40 level.
  • For its first few years, there were doubts over the Euro’s credibility. The Pound gained in value relative to the Euro.
  • Within a year of the Euros launch, the value of the Pound shot up to €1.752 – which remains the all-time high.
  • By 2003, the Pound was back down to the launch rate of €1.40 as the Euro became firmly established as a currency.
  • From 2003-2007, the GBP to EUR rate hovered between €1.40 – €1.50. A rare period of stability.
  • During the global financial crisis of 2007/8, the Pound nosedived as the UK government provided £500 billion in support to prevent a collapse of the British banking system.
  • In late December 2008, the Pound hit an all-time low of €1.02.
  • From 2013-2015, the Euro fell heavily as debt problems emerged with the ‘PIGS’ (Portugal, Greece, Spain & Italy). The future viability of the EU was questioned.
  • In February 2016, the Brexit referendum was announced. The Pound began another steep descent.
  • On the day of the ‘shock’ result in June 2016, the Pound suffered its biggest ever one-day fall against the Euro of 6.02%.
  • Since the Brexit vote, the Pound had been clawing its way back up against the Euro (until Coronavirus triggered another sell-off).
  • In 2022, the Pound got hit again as high inflation and political instability dented confidence.


    https://www.keycurrency.co.uk/gbptoeuro/
 
John le Carré on Brexit, from a July 2017 letter (Guardian/Observer):

'Just now I wd rather be Dutch, German, French, or for that matter Polish, than a Brit subjected to this truly shaming process in which we are engaged.[...]

Yes, we are betrayed. Not by our country, which voted for a lot of things it didn’t want or understand, but by a handful of jingoistic adventurers and imperialist fantasists, backed by a lot of dark money and manipulation: populism led from above, when was it ever otherwise?'
 
I have a positive to contribute: It seems I will no longer have to wait in the queue in Boots to get prescriptions. There is no queue in Boots. Boots have run so low on qualified pharmacists they were not been able to provide one to my local store last week, unclear when they will again.

Instead I can enjoy an even longer queue at the only open pharmacy in town, a queue out the door and round the corner ... thanks Brexit.
 
Brexit promises are finally being delivered!!!

The Gov is giving clear signs to potential migrants that the UK is no longer an appetizing destination.
Unemployment is as low as its been for the past 50 years (the downside is that you can't find decent workers to employ).

Britain’s economy shrank by 0.3% in August from July, hit by weakness in manufacturing and by maintenance work that slowed the oil and gas sector, official data showed.

Giving a strong signal that the UK is entering a recession, the Office for National Statistics said manufacturing declined by 1.6% while the cost of living crisis appeared to hit hotels, restaurants and the leisure industry.

A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to zero growth in August rather than a 0.3% decline. The decline in national income (GDP) was also 0.3% over the three months to August, indicating that an increase of 0.1% in July was a blip and mostly caused by a modest rebound from the Queen’s platinum jubilee celebrations.
 
“They we’re coming over and taking our jobs”. Then I heard the man never elected directly by anyone in Britain, Lord Hannan of Lima announcing that immigration was back as a govt policy….but don’t worry it’ll be special Brexit immigration “designed to match the country’s needs”. It’s as if previously business, the NHS, industry etc took on people to the payroll just because they showed up in Britain.
 
y7ZD6Ze.png


Pound to Euro – its 20-year history in a nutshell
  • The GBP/EUR rate started out in 1999 at just above the €1.40 level.
  • For its first few years, there were doubts over the Euro’s credibility. The Pound gained in value relative to the Euro.
  • Within a year of the Euros launch, the value of the Pound shot up to €1.752 – which remains the all-time high.
  • By 2003, the Pound was back down to the launch rate of €1.40 as the Euro became firmly established as a currency.
  • From 2003-2007, the GBP to EUR rate hovered between €1.40 – €1.50. A rare period of stability.
  • During the global financial crisis of 2007/8, the Pound nosedived as the UK government provided £500 billion in support to prevent a collapse of the British banking system.
  • In late December 2008, the Pound hit an all-time low of €1.02.
  • From 2013-2015, the Euro fell heavily as debt problems emerged with the ‘PIGS’ (Portugal, Greece, Spain & Italy). The future viability of the EU was questioned.
  • In February 2016, the Brexit referendum was announced. The Pound began another steep descent.
  • On the day of the ‘shock’ result in June 2016, the Pound suffered its biggest ever one-day fall against the Euro of 6.02%.
  • Since the Brexit vote, the Pound had been clawing its way back up against the Euro (until Coronavirus triggered another sell-off).
  • In 2022, the Pound got hit again as high inflation and political instability dented confidence.


    https://www.keycurrency.co.uk/gbptoeuro/
I have a particular perspective on the Euro. The European Patent Office fees are denominated in Euro, and every so often I need to top up my EPO deposit account to pay fees for clients. Having topped it up yesterday, I was interested to see the progression against the Swiss franc.

Date paid (Euro) CHF
8/3 4500 4607.05
19/4 1000 1036.79
25/4 1000 1050.99
26/7 1000 1002.83
13/10 1000 984.84
 
y7ZD6Ze.png


Pound to Euro – its 20-year history in a nutshell
  • The GBP/EUR rate started out in 1999 at just above the €1.40 level.
  • For its first few years, there were doubts over the Euro’s credibility. The Pound gained in value relative to the Euro.
  • Within a year of the Euros launch, the value of the Pound shot up to €1.752 – which remains the all-time high.
  • By 2003, the Pound was back down to the launch rate of €1.40 as the Euro became firmly established as a currency.
  • From 2003-2007, the GBP to EUR rate hovered between €1.40 – €1.50. A rare period of stability.
  • During the global financial crisis of 2007/8, the Pound nosedived as the UK government provided £500 billion in support to prevent a collapse of the British banking system.
  • In late December 2008, the Pound hit an all-time low of €1.02.
  • From 2013-2015, the Euro fell heavily as debt problems emerged with the ‘PIGS’ (Portugal, Greece, Spain & Italy). The future viability of the EU was questioned.
  • In February 2016, the Brexit referendum was announced. The Pound began another steep descent.
  • On the day of the ‘shock’ result in June 2016, the Pound suffered its biggest ever one-day fall against the Euro of 6.02%.
  • Since the Brexit vote, the Pound had been clawing its way back up against the Euro (until Coronavirus triggered another sell-off).
  • In 2022, the Pound got hit again as high inflation and political instability dented confidence.


    https://www.keycurrency.co.uk/gbptoeuro/

I note the angst over joining the euro although there is very little chance of the UK re-joining the EU in the foreseeable future but the only real losers if sterling was dropped are the speculators. Your ordinary Joe will notice no difference except relative stability in goods prices and no exchange rate costs or worries.
 
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