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Coronavirus - the new strain XXIV

gavreid said:
A very short lull this time and back to growth. 741 this Monday re 617 last week (20%).

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I was hoping that we were starting to see a pattern of an extended lull, but that is clearly not the case. I hope that some clever modellers / data analysts are looking into this to try and work out why we are seeing patterns like this. With a bit more stability in terms of human behaviour and possibly slower mutation, then maybe it will become more predictable.
 
IanW said:
I was hoping that we were starting to see a pattern of an extended lull, but that is clearly not the case. I hope that some clever modellers / data analysts are looking into this to try and work out why we are seeing patterns like this. With a bit more stability in terms of human behaviour and possibly slower mutation, then maybe it will become more predictable.
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I've not heard of any proper modelling...
 
gavreid said:
I've not heard of any proper modelling...
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It is of course highly likely that it remains too difficult, even with a data driven model, which is what many universities tried early into the pandemic. And as was explained to me by Debs on here, the biological modelling was just too difficult.
 
matt j said:
Vit D appears to be a no brainer for what it costs

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The summary from the above paper that John Campbell is very enthusiastic about:

The results of the meta-analyses and respective TSAs suggest a definitive association between the protective role of vitamin D and ICU hospitalization.

But this paper has brought about some strong criticism:

https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1621338474954752002

This is a huge claim, given that the largest, most well-controlled studies of D for COVID-19 have not found any benefits. How do the authors come to this conclusion?

The Twitter thread explains why they believe the paper is very poorly written. One of the key mistakes is that its conclusion is 86% based on one paper. And that paper is not a randomised trial, which is one of the prerequisites of the meta analysis.

Whilst the medical paper should have been peer reviewed etc and be much more believable than someone posting on Twitter, in this case the detailed and lengthy criticism on Twitter seems reasonable to me.

It would be great if Vitamin D did have the benefits described in the paper that John Campbell has presented, but there looks to be too many discrepancies for this paper to be taken as conclusive of anything. Hopefully further research and papers will be written in this and related areas that are accepted by the scientific and medical community.

In any case, MattJ, thanks for posting the link.
 
matt j said:
Vit D appears to be a no brainer for what it costs
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I’ve been taking 4000iu D3 with Vit K and zinc for years (spms, on advice from consultant) and it is well handled by the body with a few exceptions, saying that Campbell does not have a rigorous methodology to interpret scientific papers and as proven with his previous videos he is merely shilling for views and clicks for monetary reward.
 
Not sure if mask wearing is much discussed here these days. Anyway ive been at the Royal Free hospital ( Hampstead ) a lot lately ( dislocated shoulder ) and mask wearing
even amongst staff is variable. Physio s always use them, but my consultant, even though the rules say he should.. never does !. Could be a medical reason of course ?
I normally use mine, but very few other patients do.
 
zeon said:
Not sure if mask wearing is much discussed here these days. Anyway ive been at the Royal Free hospital ( Hampstead ) a lot lately ( dislocated shoulder ) and mask wearing
even amongst staff is variable. Physio s always use them, but my consultant, even though the rules say he should.. never does !. Could be a medical reason of course ?
I normally use mine, but very few other patients do.
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No mask wearing in care homes any more, at least at the dozen or so I visit per week.
 
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