I have the Chiefs slight favourites based on Mahomes being about 90%. Movement towards the Eagles in the money line was, as ever, Joe Public money and my instinct is to stick with the Vegas open where Chiefs were 1.5pt favourites.
My keys to the game:
#1 QB Injuries. Mahomes on one leg is still the best QB not named Allen or Burrow by some distance, but also Hurts and his probably not fixed shoulder could be significant.
#2 Can Eagles keep it close? If they get behind by 2 or more scores they are not really built to catch up.
#3 Can the Chiefs line hold up? It's way better than it was in the Tampa Superbowl but Eagles are pretty good.
#4 I think Spags will load to stop the run and the roll the dice with lots of man press rather than the variants on the ubiquitous 2-deep shells.
So basically if the game is close and the Eagles can keeping run the ball and hit AJ and Davonte on simple outside routes and maybe a few tricksy man beaters cooked up for the big game then they have a big chance. They also need that pass rush to be as good as it's been all year to keep the Chiefs under 30.
If the Chiefs are anything like the Chiefs I think they score enough that Hurts has to be the QB version of Hurts we saw early in the season, pre-shoulder injury.
Overall I am quite looking forward to this and think it will be a good game.