Coronavirus - the new strain XXIV

[gavreid]

On the briefing today, we are discussing immunology, hybrid immunity & vaccines.

 

[gavreid]

More on XBB 1.5 - it's coming to get you, inevitably, it's just so transmissible and there's no real immunity, much like Omicron. For most people it will be mild but obviously there is no information about long covid at present. The CDC advises to avoid catching it and I doubt we'll get any advice at all so mask up...

 

[Seanm]

"Kraken."

 

[gavreid]

What is Kraken? All we know about renamed Covid variant XBB 1.5

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has called XBB.1.5 “the most transmissible sub-variant which has been detected yet”.

XBB.1.5 has now been found in 25 countries and is a mutated version of Omicron XBB, which was first found in India in August.

XBB can get past the body’s immune system and XBB.1.5 is just as able at doing so. It is also better at “binding” to cells, so it can spread with much more ease.

The US saw the XBB.1.5 variant go from making up just four percent to 40 per cent of Covid cases in the space of just a couple of weeks.

Scientists in the US believe think the new sub-variant is at least in part to blame for the rise in hospital admissions in New York.

Whether or not the so-called Kraken will trigger a new Covid surge in the UK remains to be seen, but reports suggests that a rise in cases may well be seen.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-varient-kraken-explainer-uk-b2259595.html

 

[Sue Pertwee-Tyr]

Scientists have now released images of the Kraken variant.

It's believed the cilia-like growths on the side may help XBB 1.5 be more mobile, hence the increased infectivity. The function of the gold-coloured protruberances is unclear at this time, as it is known that the Kraken's binding mechanisms are all on the opposite side, not visible in this shot.

 

[Seeker_UK]

Yeah, give it a loaded, scary name.

 

[gavreid]

Yeah, give it a loaded, scary name.

That was just the internet - it's not the official name. Its XBB 1.5 another Omicron derivative from BA.2 (rather than 5, which has been dominant)

 

[Seanm]

What is Kraken? All we know about renamed Covid variant XBB 1.5

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has called XBB.1.5 “the most transmissible sub-variant which has been detected yet”.

XBB.1.5 has now been found in 25 countries and is a mutated version of Omicron XBB, which was first found in India in August.

XBB can get past the body’s immune system and XBB.1.5 is just as able at doing so. It is also better at “binding” to cells, so it can spread with much more ease.

The US saw the XBB.1.5 variant go from making up just four percent to 40 per cent of Covid cases in the space of just a couple of weeks.

Scientists in the US believe think the new sub-variant is at least in part to blame for the rise in hospital admissions in New York.

Whether or not the so-called Kraken will trigger a new Covid surge in the UK remains to be seen, but reports suggests that a rise in cases may well be seen.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-varient-kraken-explainer-uk-b2259595.html

The 40% thing was flagged as a likely artefact at the time and has since been identified as such by the CDC themselves. Another awful piece of journalism.

 

[gavreid]

If that was incorrect (it's not so very wild in fact) it won't be long until it's the case with 40% growth advantage over the current dominant variants the BQs, which themselves are dominating BA.5. Indeed it raises a concern that it my not be as mild as predicted if in fact it's been other variants responsible for the greater majority of cases.

As the video above states (4 mins) US prevalence BQ 1.1 34%, XBB 1.5 28% BQ1 21% + odds and sods

 

[sean99]

Over here in Boston MA XBB1.5 has been the dominant circulating variant for the past several weeks (over 70% of infections as of a few days ago), but our wastewater levels are starting to fall now, after peaking far below the original omicron surge of last winter:

https://www.mwra.com/biobot/biobotdata.htm

On this link select "Overview trends" from the column on the left:
https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-response-reporting#covid-19-interactive-data-dashboard-

I'm not one to downplay Covid - far from it, but it does not look like XBB1.5 is going to lead to anything approaching the original Omicron wave.

 

[gavreid]

"Dec wave was BQ.1.1. This variant is now (slowly) declining & being overtaken by CH.1.1 (~25%) & XBB.1.5 (~6%) (dominant in NE US). "

"Quite likely that one or both of these subvariants will cause another infection wave, but hopefully not higher than December's. Positive is that autumn's booster campaign seems to have reduced deaths in Dec, negative is most young adults >1 yr out from last vax. "

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1613920487872278530/photo/1

 

[sean99]

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

Scroll down to "CDC provides updated variant proportions for weighted estimates and Nowcast estimates every week on Friday." then select Region 1 for the HHS region.

In the Northeast US, including Massachusetts XBB1.5 is estimated to be around 80% of new cases as of right now, and our wastewater measures are falling precipitously. It's a little early to say we're out of the woods, but hospitalization appears to have peaked also, and far below the levels of the original omicron wave from this time last year.

I think Massachusetts probably has a similar profile to the UK in terms of vaccination and prior infection. Here we probably have slightly higher levels of bivalent boosters, but probably no higher in vulnerable populations, since they were offered to essentially every adult.

On this basis I don't see a reason to suspect that XBB1.5 will cause a significant problem in the UK - certainly nothing on the scale of the original Omicron wave.

 

[gavreid]

In the Northeast US, including Massachusetts XBB1.5 is estimated to be around 80% of new cases as of right now, and our wastewater measures are falling precipitously. It's a little early to say we're out of the woods, but hospitalization appears to have peaked also, and far below the levels of the original omicron wave from this time last year.

Fingers crossed. The under 50s have not had a booster since last year, I think that's a concern among some...

 

[matt j]

Does the vaccine even work against all these new variants?

 

[gavreid]

Does the vaccine even work against all these new variants?

It will prevent serious illness in most people but likely nothing at all to prevent infection.

 

[Gingerbeard]

Does the vaccine even work against all these new variants?

It certainly works for topping up those Pharma profits, as will the next booster, and the next booster and the next b..................

 

[hc25036]

It certainly works for topping up those Pharma profits, as will the next booster, and the next booster and the next b..................

as does the sale of many other products that prevent serious illness and death in the population…..

 

[Gingerbeard]

as does the sale of many other products that prevent serious illness and death in the population…..

Indeed they do, but with vaccines they would have had 10 - 15 years of research before approval and release to the general public

 

[davidsrsb]

Indeed they do, but with vaccines they would have had 10 - 15 years of research before approval and release to the general public

Very few ever had that long. The old process was why we mainly had vaccines for the slow mutating DNA viruses like smallpox. Some of the old vaccines have become largely ineffective, like the BCG against TB.

 

[hc25036]

Indeed they do, but with vaccines they would have had 10 - 15 years of research before approval and release to the general public

Actually vaccines is the one area that almost always doesn’t have that length of pharma research and development.