The Premiership ofLiz Truss. Sept 2022-Oct 2022. New PM time!
- Thread starter sideshowbob
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Tony L
Administrator
I very much doubt they have the numbers. My guess is Johnson is on the ticket unless legal realities catch up with him. He has shown utter contempt for the law and parliamentary process so maybe his eventual downfall will be like his mentor Trump in the courts. Hopefully he has enough time to destroy the Tory party before that!
Mullardman
Moderately extreme...
Some idle musings I placed on another forum..
Don't take them too literally.
"As I understand it, it would take a lot of Tories plus the combined opposition parties to outvote the Govt. Whilst there's little doubt that many Tory MPs are very dissatisfied with the Govt, many also know that an election any time soon would see them out of a job, and the Tories out of office for a very long time. Given the scale of the Tory disaster, it's even possible the Tories could be wiped out in the way the Liberals were early in the 20thC.
I'm not entirely sure how a particular vote becomes a 'Vote of Confidence'...I'll have to check on that.
Also, the circumstances now are different to those prevailing in the early 20th C . Back then Labour was rapidly gaining a foothold in the consciousness of the working population, offering something fairer than the class ridden social structure and inflexible certainties of the Victorian and Edwardian periods. WW1 certainly hastened that process.
So, put simply, Labour replaced the Liberals as the 'progressive' force in UK politics.
At present, there's no cohesive ideology waiting in the wings to replace the Tories, so even if wiped out in the short term, they'll no doubt blunder on, picking over what's left of the UK that they can steal, sell off, etc.
Labour is no longer able to offer a way out of the class system etc. as that has all but gone, so the offer at present is essentially a 'nicer' form of Capitalism. Labour need to find a much more targeted and cohesive alternative to the Tories. Winning on the basis that they are the 'best of a bad bunch' isn't sustainable. That said Labour are rightly wary of pronouncing too many definitive policies and spending commitments because, despite all evidence, people, egged on by a rabid foreign owned right wing press, are still easily convinced that Labour is a 'Tax and Spend' party, so any slight error of judgement will be pounced upon by the press.
If the Tories do a 'Liberal Decline'..their replacement needs to come from some sort of coalition of Green/Environmental/Lib Dem etc. groups.
...maybe.. "
Don't take them too literally.
"As I understand it, it would take a lot of Tories plus the combined opposition parties to outvote the Govt. Whilst there's little doubt that many Tory MPs are very dissatisfied with the Govt, many also know that an election any time soon would see them out of a job, and the Tories out of office for a very long time. Given the scale of the Tory disaster, it's even possible the Tories could be wiped out in the way the Liberals were early in the 20thC.
I'm not entirely sure how a particular vote becomes a 'Vote of Confidence'...I'll have to check on that.
Also, the circumstances now are different to those prevailing in the early 20th C . Back then Labour was rapidly gaining a foothold in the consciousness of the working population, offering something fairer than the class ridden social structure and inflexible certainties of the Victorian and Edwardian periods. WW1 certainly hastened that process.
So, put simply, Labour replaced the Liberals as the 'progressive' force in UK politics.
At present, there's no cohesive ideology waiting in the wings to replace the Tories, so even if wiped out in the short term, they'll no doubt blunder on, picking over what's left of the UK that they can steal, sell off, etc.
Labour is no longer able to offer a way out of the class system etc. as that has all but gone, so the offer at present is essentially a 'nicer' form of Capitalism. Labour need to find a much more targeted and cohesive alternative to the Tories. Winning on the basis that they are the 'best of a bad bunch' isn't sustainable. That said Labour are rightly wary of pronouncing too many definitive policies and spending commitments because, despite all evidence, people, egged on by a rabid foreign owned right wing press, are still easily convinced that Labour is a 'Tax and Spend' party, so any slight error of judgement will be pounced upon by the press.
If the Tories do a 'Liberal Decline'..their replacement needs to come from some sort of coalition of Green/Environmental/Lib Dem etc. groups.
...maybe.. "
lagavullin10y
pfm Member
Can't they get a contractor in, someone like Jean-Claude Juncker?
He also has experience slapping right wing leaders on the cheek.
He also has experience slapping right wing leaders on the cheek.
Ponty
pfm Member
The Bank of England tried that with Mark Carney. He only did one thing, cut interest rates, the price for which we’re now all paying.
sean99
pfm Member
I wish. Unfortunately I think a majority of the UK electorate is deeply conservative - not in the batshit crazy US evangelical / gun owner sense, but in the sense of wanting low personal taxes, and being prepared to put up with terrible public services, and also suspicion/resentment/perceived superiority to foreigners. This has been nurtured by a grotesque right wing press (particularly the Mail and Torygraph). Thus, even faced with the past decade of catastrophic mismanagement of the UK I think a good 40-50% of the electorate could never bring themselves to vote for Labour - unless Labour is lead by a charismatic centrist like Tony Blair. (I know the lefties here really don't want to hear this).
The Tories deserve to be wiped out for a generation, but IMO it won't happen, and the UK electorate will not vote a left/progressive leaning Labour party into power. Just as the US would never vote for Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren for President, even though both of them could make life so much better for the vast majority of Americans.
notaclue
pfm Member
The MPs now backing Johnson who wanted him removed a few months ago... Absolute insanity. Just one example here https://twitter.com/willgeorgelloyd/status/1583437050564313089
Oh, and we can bet that many of the MPs claiming they will resign in disgust if Johnson wins will be howling their delight like the over-excitable children they are when Johnson returns for his first PMQs.
Oh, and we can bet that many of the MPs claiming they will resign in disgust if Johnson wins will be howling their delight like the over-excitable children they are when Johnson returns for his first PMQs.
laughingboy
pfm Member
If Osborne had listened to Cable in 2012 (who was arguing that there needs to be a plan for growth, an industrial strategy) then government could have taken advantage of those low interest rates to invest, and Carney might have been able to raise those interest rates.
It was a good policy for business and more or less mirrored many other large economies; having lived through the last episode of peak rates with substantial borrowing i'm worried again now.
Kier was implying this morning that he could reverse the rise in mortgage costs; i'm dubious.
Stability is what we need and i don't think Boris 2.0 will bring that.
Del monaco
Del Monaco
He didn’t bring stability before.Why would he bring it now. And he is an immoral liar.
Ponty
pfm Member
A BoE chap yesterday was suggesting that rates could peak at 5%, a bit lower than expected. I hope he’s right in many ways. Trouble is, much of the inflation isn’t demand led, although as I’ve said many times, things like food have been too cheap for too long.
Monitor Gold 10
pfm Member
Arguably, he really puts the C into unt.
ks.234
Half way to Infinity
Both good policies. We absolutely need massive investment in a Green New Deal which could, if done properly, promote growth and raise wages. However, Labour have also promised to cut the deficit and debt year on year and “borrowing” is now a bigger stick than ever, so unless Labour is proposing raising a lot more taxation than it has outlined so far, I’m not sure where it will get investment from. PFI? Enterprise Zones?
matthewr
spɹɐʍʞɔɐq spɹoɔǝɹ ɹnoʎ sʎɐld
You keep saying this despite not remotely having made any sort of case as to why the policy was wrong, what alternatives there might be or what might have happened in any alternative scenario when we were faced with a depression level events.
Nic Robinson
Moderator
In other news, Steven Gerrard is on the shortlist for new Aston Villa manager.
wulbert
pfm Member
Makes you wonder how a high tax economy like Sweden works, don't it? They don't have any businesses operating there. No rich people. No Coca Cola. No cars. No manufacturers. All the savvy business people f***ed off to Singapore years ago.
Tony L
Administrator
I suspect those currently choosing between heating their homes or feeding their children may have a somewhat different view.
wulbert
pfm Member
It feels like this is Great Britain's lunatic fringe finally coming up against the reality of no longer being an empire. It''s harder to make a living when you can't just club your neighbour over the head and take his stuff (after planting a flag of course, to make it all legal).
Someone should have sat the whole country down, sometime in the mid-1960's (HRH Liz E2R perhaps?), and explained in a softly reassuring voice that we might have to grow up now and put our toys away.
Someone should have sat the whole country down, sometime in the mid-1960's (HRH Liz E2R perhaps?), and explained in a softly reassuring voice that we might have to grow up now and put our toys away.
matthewr
spɹɐʍʞɔɐq spɹoɔǝɹ ɹnoʎ sʎɐld
Tax flight of the rich is just a self-serving myth their client media [*] keep repeating. Basically rich people want to live and work in the world class cities in advanced economies.
And having known and worked with a lot of rich people over the last 20 years I can tell you they rarely if ever **** off to Switzerland, Singapore or Hong Kong and in the rare cases they do they invariably come back a few years later usually when their wife tells them to or their kids get to school age.
https://www.theguardian.com/inequal...eave-us-data-contradicts-millionaires-threats
https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=27987
[*] Everyone seems to have started saying client media lately, so i am getting in on the act.
And having known and worked with a lot of rich people over the last 20 years I can tell you they rarely if ever **** off to Switzerland, Singapore or Hong Kong and in the rare cases they do they invariably come back a few years later usually when their wife tells them to or their kids get to school age.
https://www.theguardian.com/inequal...eave-us-data-contradicts-millionaires-threats
https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=27987
[*] Everyone seems to have started saying client media lately, so i am getting in on the act.
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